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Next year 2B after Utley.

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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby Yoda » Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:53 pm

The Cow wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:The elite hitters are usually separated from the rest by their batting average. You can't find any other 30/100 second baseman like Utley right now and his .330-.340 batting average is definitely irreplaceable. It's the same reasoning for why Pujols is always valued so much over Ryan Howard, even if all their other numbers are the same, because a 40-50 point advantage in batting average is huge. Only BJ Upton also has a chance at producing 30/100 out of second base but his batting average definitely won't match Utley's next season.

Kelly Johnson is alright but the dropoff from Utley to him is major and it isn't like he steals bases to make up for it. Johnson is pretty good though, draws alot of walks for a second year player. but he needs to hit lefties before he can be considered with Phillips, Cano, and Upton. Phillips has problems with righties but he's a 20/20 player so it's forgiveable and Upton is weaker against lefties but has 30/30 potential, and Cano is an extremely polished hitter.



Why do you consider Phillips a 20/20 guy and Upton a 30/30 guy? Right now with roughly a month left to go Phillips sits at .286 26/26 so I would say Phillips is a DEFINITE 30/30 candidate right now and Phillips will be 27 next year. I think it is very reasonable for Phillips to hit 4 more homers and 4 more steals this year. Look I think Upton is a good player, but Phillips is a better player than you give him credit for being. As far as Utley batting .330-.340 the safe money is on that stat regressing. I think Utley is a .300-.320 player. Lets call it .310 and say Phillips at the age of 27 steps up a bit and hits .295. 40-50 point difference in BA drys up.

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Both Phillips and Upton have 30/30 upside. Upton is 4 years younger than Phillips so I definitely thing he has more upside however.
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby Grounded Polo » Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:57 pm

I didn't intend to seemingly say Phillips' ceiling was 20/20 when I wrote that or not knock Phillips for that matter, he was 20/20 at the time so that's what I called him. I don't think Phillips will really produce 30 home runs on a consistent basis, I'm expecting 25 hrs regularly though. I don't see any reason to suggest Phillips will suddenly increase his batting average to approach .300 right now because he currently has a 3/1 k/bb ratio and if you take out Upton's first month, his k/bb ratio is at 2/1 plus Phillips only bats .262 against righties so that's why I'd prefer Upton over Phillips in drafts next season, he's a better bet to put up 30/30 numbers AND bat over .300. The difference isn't that major, I'd rank Upton at around 30 and Phillips around 40 in my 2008 draft board.
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby rookies and cream » Tue Sep 04, 2007 12:12 am

Would you also like to retract your statement that "Kinsler is junk".

That is the main reason why I bumped this thread. Over the past 15 days, he is batting .400, is slugging about .670, and has scored 14 runs. His batting AVG is up to about .270 and if he did not get hurt, he would likely have reached the 25/25 mark.

P.S. - I bet you're no longer smiling that you "flipped him for Zambrano".
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby The Cow » Tue Sep 04, 2007 12:45 am

Look I think Utley is the #1 2B. Who is 2nd? Whereas as Upton is younger than Phillips and has IMO the higher ceiling I think Phillips outproduces Upton next year. But it is very close and my position could change.

Now to the guy pimping Kinsler, he is a nice option to draft and he will go much later than Utley, Upton or Phillips. Kinsler hand injury has hurt his stock, but not his value if that makes sense. Kinsler's stats suffered because of the injury, but the talent is still there. However I think Kinsler's value is more along the lines of Phillips than Utley. Kinsler does not project to be a high avg guy, but he can be good enough in average o not hurt you, say .280. The power and speed are there.

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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby RynMan » Tue Sep 04, 2007 7:43 am

The Cow wrote:Now to the guy pimping Kinsler, he is a nice option to draft and he will go much later than Utley, Upton or Phillips. Kinsler hand injury has hurt his stock, but not his value if that makes sense. Kinsler's stats suffered because of the injury, but the talent is still there. However I think Kinsler's value is more along the lines of Phillips than Utley. Kinsler does not project to be a high avg guy, but he can be good enough in average o not hurt you, say .280. The power and speed are there.


Agreed. I like Utley, Roberts, Upton, Phillips, and maybe even Uggla over Kinsler at this point for next year.
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby rookies and cream » Tue Sep 04, 2007 8:17 am

Agreed. I like Utley, Roberts, Upton, Phillips, and maybe even Uggla over Kinsler at this point for next year.


That sounds about right. I wasn't saying that Kinsler was top 3. I was just saying that he deserves to be mentioned among the top 5. Some were ranking him as low as 10 before.
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby RynMan » Tue Sep 04, 2007 8:32 am

rookies and cream wrote:
Agreed. I like Utley, Roberts, Upton, Phillips, and maybe even Uggla over Kinsler at this point for next year.


That sounds about right. I wasn't saying that Kinsler was top 3. I was just saying that he deserves to be mentioned among the top 5. Some were ranking him as low as 10 before.


Yeah, he definitely deserves to be in the top 10. ;-D
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby The Cow » Tue Sep 04, 2007 9:24 am

I would not rank Uggla higher than Kinsler. The batting AVG is killer. Roberts deserves some credit as well I guess I would go Utley, Phillips, Upton, Roberts, then it gets goofy unless I forgot someone and I have. I would rank Cano over Kinsler and Uggla FYI. Not really doing rankings yet too busy TRYING to sneak a win.

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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby Grounded Polo » Tue Sep 04, 2007 10:20 am

rookies and cream wrote:Would you also like to retract your statement that "Kinsler is junk".

That is the main reason why I bumped this thread. Over the past 15 days, he is batting .400, is slugging about .670, and has scored 14 runs. His batting AVG is up to about .270 and if he did not get hurt, he would likely have reached the 25/25 mark.

P.S. - I bet you're no longer smiling that you "flipped him for Zambrano".


The team I flipped him on has Webb, Oswalt, Lincecum, Schilling, and Wainwright (also had Gallardo for his good months before dealing him in a package to get Beltran), so I've been benching CZam for a month now and haven't dealt with his horrible outings.

Sorry to dissapoint you but I don't miss Kinsler, he'd ride my bench behind Freddy Sanchez at 2B and I have Tulo at SS, Arod at 3b, and Atkins/Pence splitting UTIL so Kinsler was still not needed and I don't regret it on that team. If it were another team, then I'd reconsider but on there, getting 2 months of Cy Young CZam was good enough. He helped me bring down my atrocious ratios that were around 4.30/1.34 before to around 3.70/1.29 now, essentially being a major part of me gaining 15 points.

I still wouldn't take him over Utley, Upton, Phillips, Roberts, Cano, and Uggla for next season and since I usually play in 12 team leagues, Kinsler becomes clustered as a lower tier 2b option.
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby skapur20 » Thu Sep 06, 2007 1:30 pm

it all depends upon what type of league you play in.

h2h uggla has to rated above most of those guys as his avg wont be as "killer" as some of your put it. Its only 1 catagory. where as runs, hrs, rbi hes right up there with utley with those stats. then to avg it out in the other 2 cats he doesnt help in, id take a guy like taveras late. whose gonna hit 40 sbs and is hitting over 315.
ummm lets go angels? :)
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