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Next year 2B after Utley.

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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby stevethumb » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:10 pm

kelly johnson- -392 ABs (mostly leadoff)--.299 13-60-9
chase utley-----399 ABs (#3 hitter)--------.335 17-82-7

all i am saying is for a fraction of the cost (whether auction or draft) you can have similar production AND IF kelly johnson hit 3rd in that bandbox at philly w/that lineup, his #s would be similar to utley's..as it is he steals more, has only 4 fewer HRs, and his rbis are amazing for a guy who has hit leadoff most of the year
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby Grounded Polo » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:29 pm

The elite hitters are usually separated from the rest by their batting average. You can't find any other 30/100 second baseman like Utley right now and his .330-.340 batting average is definitely irreplaceable. It's the same reasoning for why Pujols is always valued so much over Ryan Howard, even if all their other numbers are the same, because a 40-50 point advantage in batting average is huge. Only BJ Upton also has a chance at producing 30/100 out of second base but his batting average definitely won't match Utley's next season.

Kelly Johnson is alright but the dropoff from Utley to him is major and it isn't like he steals bases to make up for it. Johnson is pretty good though, draws alot of walks for a second year player. but he needs to hit lefties before he can be considered with Phillips, Cano, and Upton. Phillips has problems with righties but he's a 20/20 player so it's forgiveable and Upton is weaker against lefties but has 30/30 potential, and Cano is an extremely polished hitter.
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby George_Foreman » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:55 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:Kelly Johnson is alright but the dropoff from Utley to him is major and it isn't like he steals bases to make up for it. Johnson is pretty good though, draws alot of walks for a second year player. but he needs to hit lefties before he can be considered with Phillips, Cano, and Upton. Phillips has problems with righties but he's a 20/20 player so it's forgiveable and Upton is weaker against lefties but has 30/30 potential, and Cano is an extremely polished hitter.

The direct comparisson to Utlely isn't really fair, since no 2B in the game compares to Utley. :-)

The key with Johnson is you'll be able to draft him like 10+ rounds after Phillips, Cano, and Upton. Yes, I'd prefer one of the others on my team next year, but not really all that much. Johnson is going to hit in a prime spot in the batting lineup next year (2nd if Renteria gets traded this off-season, possibly leadoff otherwise in front of Renteria/Chipper/Tex), and IMO is as likely as not to improve from this year. I mean, kid's just 25, and it won't be his first year at a new position. :-)
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby Snakes Gould » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:36 pm

the weird thing about kelly johnson is (small sample size i know) is that he actually doesnt hit lefties that bad, its just cox wont give him the chance.
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby RynMan » Sun Aug 12, 2007 8:33 pm

I don't mind Kelly Johnson, but I'm really going to need to see him do it for another year before I start putting him ahead of players that are a little more established/polished.
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby Cards07Champs » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:59 pm

I am a little surprised that Roberts isn't getting a little more credit.

Remember, will still only be 30 next year, he has at least 2-3 season left of peak production. His plate discipline has improved dramatically and he's still stealin' bags. I think he's probably a 12-15 HR a year guy with 25-35 SBs and as many K's as BBs (and a 400+ OBP to boot).

He's the 2nd best out there, IMO, especially in leagues that punish K's.
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby Ender » Mon Aug 13, 2007 4:45 pm

take a weeks, kinsler, barfield, kendrick type, hope they stay healthy and show their potential and if they dont' pick up a waiver wire guy. That would be my advice for drafting a 2B next year unless Utley happens to fall to you. It would not surprise me one bit if half of those guys were in the top 8 for 2B next year, you just have to be lucky and pick the right half.
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby Rollotommasi » Tue Aug 14, 2007 6:21 pm

Uggla dropped to 6th......
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby rookies and cream » Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:20 pm

Time to consider Kinsler among the top 5...
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Re: Next year 2B after Utley.

Postby The Cow » Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:37 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:The elite hitters are usually separated from the rest by their batting average. You can't find any other 30/100 second baseman like Utley right now and his .330-.340 batting average is definitely irreplaceable. It's the same reasoning for why Pujols is always valued so much over Ryan Howard, even if all their other numbers are the same, because a 40-50 point advantage in batting average is huge. Only BJ Upton also has a chance at producing 30/100 out of second base but his batting average definitely won't match Utley's next season.

Kelly Johnson is alright but the dropoff from Utley to him is major and it isn't like he steals bases to make up for it. Johnson is pretty good though, draws alot of walks for a second year player. but he needs to hit lefties before he can be considered with Phillips, Cano, and Upton. Phillips has problems with righties but he's a 20/20 player so it's forgiveable and Upton is weaker against lefties but has 30/30 potential, and Cano is an extremely polished hitter.



Why do you consider Phillips a 20/20 guy and Upton a 30/30 guy? Right now with roughly a month left to go Phillips sits at .286 26/26 so I would say Phillips is a DEFINITE 30/30 candidate right now and Phillips will be 27 next year. I think it is very reasonable for Phillips to hit 4 more homers and 4 more steals this year. Look I think Upton is a good player, but Phillips is a better player than you give him credit for being. As far as Utley batting .330-.340 the safe money is on that stat regressing. I think Utley is a .300-.320 player. Lets call it .310 and say Phillips at the age of 27 steps up a bit and hits .295. 40-50 point difference in BA drys up.

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