The frontpage poll got me thinking, and that tends to be dangerous. Is Chipper Jones a HOFer, if he retired today?
There are only a few modern day(elected after 1960) third basemen in the HOF, including: George Brett, Wade Boggs, Eddie Matthews, Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt. Although, it's not that much different from SS, 2B or catchers. I'm not a fan of saying, well there have only been 2 guys at this position in the hall and this guy is almost as good, so he should be in. Times change. I'll look to Chipper's contemporaries.
One MVP. Five All-Star Games. Two Silver Sluggers. One World Series ring. Who else won Silver Sluggers during Chipper's time? Vinnie Castilla, Scott Rolen, Albert Pujols, Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre, also look to AL guys like Eric Chavez and Troy Glaus.
Chipper's got 2056 career hits, 375 HR, 1255 runs and RBIs. He's also got a .306 AVG, .404 OBP and .544 SLG. That makes for a .948 career OPS. His career OPS+ is 144.
For my sabermetric brothers, he's got a career .317 EqA, but only a WARP3 of 91.7. Why? Deplorable defense. Sabermetrically speaking, Rolen has been more valuable throughout their respective careers. Rolen has a .298 career EqA, but has a WARP3 of 95.6, due to Rolen's defensive ability. That WARP3 also takes into that Rolen has played 400 less games. Per 162 games, Rolen scores a 10.4 WARP3 compared to 8.05 WARP3 for Chipper. That equates to 2.35 wins per year. So Chipper may not even be the best 3B of his own generation.
Chipper definitely doesn't compare with Mike Schmidt who hit like Chipper (.313 EqA) and fielded like Rolen. Schmidt had a 160.1 WARP3, or a 10.8 WARP3 per 162 games. He also lags behind Brett, Boggs, and Matthews. He has better numbers than Brooks Robinson who had a .267 EqA and 119 WARP3 or 6.65 WARP 3 per 162 games.
It's hard to say, but I think the glut of 3B today with HOF talent could hurt Chipper's chances. A-Rod, Miggy, David Wright. Clearly, A-Rod will be in talks for one of the top 10 players of all-time when all is said and done. At Miggy's age he's already put up two seasons comparable to Chipper's best offensive season. David Wright is putting up numbers like Mike Schmidt, Jr. similar, but slightly inferior offensive and defensive numbers.
There's the evidence. My HOF bar is set very high and I think there are too many guys in too start. With that said, I vote no on Chipper, if he retired today.
If he retired right now I would give him a big no. He may be the worst fielding 3B in the history of the game who was able to stay at the position for a long period of time. The numbers with the bat just aren't there to make up for it yet. Give him 6 or 7 more seasons. He doesn't need 3000/500 to get in, but in an offensive era he needs more than 2050/375 to make himself stand out.
Yoda wrote:In a word yes. He was amazing in his prime.
Amazing? I don't know about that. Albert Pujols is amazing. A-Rod is amazing. Vlad is amazing. Manny is amazing. Chipper? I never thought he was amazing.
His prime was 1996 to 2003, and that's real generous. He averaged .313 AVG, .551 SLG, 32 HR, 109 runs and 107 RBI per season, in his prime. Those are real good numbers, but not amazing. Add in his atrocious defense, and he's no HOFer.
Yoda wrote:In a word yes. He was amazing in his prime.
Amazing? I don't know about that. Albert Pujols is amazing. A-Rod is amazing. Vlad is amazing. Manny is amazing. Chipper? I never thought he was amazing.
His prime was 1996 to 2003, and that's real generous. He averaged .313 AVG, .551 SLG, 32 HR, 109 runs and 107 RBI per season, in his prime. Those are real good numbers, but not amazing. Add in his atrocious defense, and he's no HOFer.
He put up awesome numbers and he was the best player on the best team that won like 10 straight division titles. He was amazing IMO.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
The "amazing" debate notwithstanding ... I think Chipper gets in. If his career ended today, it probably would be close, but I think he'd make it. The dearth of HoF 3Bmen, MVP, division titles and a WS ring, many productive years, good "image" ... it all adds up. He's not in the class of Schmidt, Brett, Boggs, and Matthews clearly, but good enough to be Hall-worthy for a 3B. Yeah, the defense sucks, but I don't think that will hold him back. Just listening to announcers and writers discuss Chipper, he just seems to be considered an All-Time great at the position. And while his health is such that his career really could end at any moment and it wouldn't surprise anyone, and even 1500+ runs/rbis may be tough, 400+ HRs should be doable. And there just aren't many non-1B/OFers who reach that level. And all of them are in (or will be in) the Hall.
If he retired right now, today, no. While his peak was very good, his numbers simply are not there yet. Another few years of solid production, however, and he gets in.
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by joshheines » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:17 pm 
