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How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

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How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

Postby shoelessjoetara » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:21 pm

I currently lead my league. Including this week we have eight weeks left.I am ahead by 8 points right now and have a great chance of extending my lead by another 3 points possibly. I am quite sure I just jinxed myself and the wheels will fall off now ,but any way what is cosidered a comfortable lead?
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Re: How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

Postby rjforlife » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:31 pm

Goldy is King.
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Re: How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

Postby shoelessjoetara » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:36 pm

That really doesn't help with my question .That person was asking about a certain category. I am asking about the whole ball of wax.The reason I am asking is that we are getting close to the end and I just want to know some peoples opinion.
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Re: How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

Postby MashinSpuds » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:48 pm

Definitely not. I lost my 30 point lead from May to the beginning of August mainly due to me thinking I was so comfortable that I didn't have to dissect my team's output. I've regained my lead recently, but that was a shocker that woke me up with some prompt waiver moves. I recommend you keep on top of things until there are two weeks left... you don't want to be the guy saying you should've won it.
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Re: How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

Postby nyrblue2 » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:51 pm

It all depends on how close each category is.

Say you're in a standard 12 team 5x5 roto. You are leading every single category, so your lead is 10 points at an absolute minimum. More likely, the teams below you have mixed and matched some categories, so it could be as high as 15-20 points. This would seem like a pretty dominating position for the last few weeks of the season, right? Well what if you are leading R,HR,RBI,SB,W,K, and S by 1 in each category? And you are leading BA,ERA and WHIP by 0.01? Still good enough to lead all cats, but you could lose 10-15 points or more in 1 day if the teams chasing you have 1 normal or good day and you have 1 sub-par or normal day, respectively. Yes, you still lead the categories, but none of those leads are safe.

I know it's not the answer you're looking for, but you need to look at each category individually to see how comfortable your lead is. Generally BA,WHIP and ERA won't flucuate TOO much this late, so just a guess, but a lead of .25 points or more would be fairly safe in my opinion. As far as the quantitative categories, I'd say leads in R,HR,RBI,SB,W,K and S would need to be about 40,25,40,20,15,60 and 20, respectively, to be in the "completely comfortable" stage. If you meet those standards, you could probably afford to sell off one of your top producers in that category to make up ground elsewhere. Still, it doesn't hurt to keep compiling them because you don't know when another team might be loading up in one category.

If anyone wants to give better estimates on those numbers, feel free. I just kinda pulled them out of thin air.

FYI - in the past month or so, the league leader in my roto league had his lead shrink from 25 to 4, so be mindful of all the stats.
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Re: How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

Postby Bloody Sox » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:54 pm

shoelessjoetara wrote:I currently lead my league. Including this week we have eight weeks left.I am ahead by 8 points right now and have a great chance of extending my lead by another 3 points possibly. I am quite sure I just jinxed myself and the wheels will fall off now ,but any way what is cosidered a comfortable lead?

I guess I don't understand the gist of your question... you say that you have a great chance to extend your lead, then why wouldn't you? What are your league parameters? What categories are you ahead/behind in? By how much? Keepers involved? Are you weighing the merits of winning now vs. helping yourself next year?

Without knowing any of the above, I'll say that 8 points is probably not enough to feel "comfortable", but it really depends on the league. In my main league, I was in 4th place and 15 points out of first at the all-star break, now I'm in 1st place and 9 points ahead of the pack - I don't feel comfortable in the least. But you really need to do a category-by-category analysis to really know. In my league, there are several really close categories, but in your league you might be way ahead/behind in certain categories. Go through each category, analyze where the gaps are, and come to a conclusion based on that.
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Re: How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

Postby shoelessjoetara » Tue Aug 07, 2007 2:02 pm

I agree with what you are saying totally. The difference I think with me ,is that from May to July categories are real close as things are still shaping up. In my league most of the categories have pretty much shaped up to what they may end up looking like at the end with the exception of a few changes. I agree that you cant let yourself be to relaxed and you must stay on top of things. I guess I just think it is to good to be true that I am leading right now and I am looking for something to give me a little more confidence in this matter.
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Re: How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

Postby Think Blue » Tue Aug 07, 2007 2:13 pm

If you're league uses max innings for the season, don't forget to take that into consideration. There are guys in my league that are way ahead right now in wins and k's but at their current pace will run out of innings in early September. I project them to finish middle of the pack in those categories.
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Re: How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

Postby Bwanna » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:39 pm

nyrblue2 wrote:I know it's not the answer you're looking for, but you need to look at each category individually to see how comfortable your lead is. Generally BA,WHIP and ERA won't flucuate TOO much this late, so just a guess, but a lead of .25 points or more would be fairly safe in my opinion. As far as the quantitative categories, I'd say leads in R,HR,RBI,SB,W,K and S would need to be about 40,25,40,20,15,60 and 20, respectively, to be in the "completely comfortable" stage. If you meet those standards, you could probably afford to sell off one of your top producers in that category to make up ground elsewhere. Still, it doesn't hurt to keep compiling them because you don't know when another team might be loading up in one category.


This ^ is good advice IMO.

It's important to realize that because those innings and ABs are piling up, it's tougher and tougher to make up ground. But, it's also tougher to lose ground. Does this mean it makes more sense to gamble with your ERA/WHIP later in the season in order to make up ground in W's and K's, by streaming risky starters? What do you guys think?

EDIT: I also REALLY wish was were a way to graph trends for each of the stat categories on Yahoo. It's not enough to see a snapshot of the differences, you really need to see trends and projections. E.g., I could be in the lead by 40 RBIs, but only adding them half as fast as my nearest opponent.
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Re: How much of a lead is a comfortable margin?

Postby nyrblue2 » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:50 pm

Since your ERA and WHIP are becoming close to a cemented value, I do think it could be worth it to gamble and try to gain W and K with spot starters. I look at it this way - say you use a spot starter and he gives up 6 ER in 3 IP. Not too good right? Well it probably won't be that much more detrimental to your stats compared to one of your closers (who you rarely bench, if ever) who gives up 3 ER in 1 poor IP. To me, the rewards outweight the risks when you try to make up W and K ground. It will take a large chunk of poor outings to severly affect your ERA/WHIP.
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