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Who's the next to win 300?

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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby Leena » Mon Aug 04, 2008 8:56 pm

Pedro's ridiculous years in Boston should be enough to get in.

But, never underestimate the idiocy of sports writers. Especially since Pedro has had his struggles with the Mets. And he's probably right about the low win total.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Aug 04, 2008 9:37 pm

I should start up those HoF Debate threads I did 2 seasons ago again... in my mind, Pedro is a lock for the Hall of Fame. His peak was tremendous, he's not finished yet so he's still going to accumulate K and W, which the sports writers love, and he's arguably been the best pitcher of the last decade plus.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby sportsguy138 » Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:37 am

bigh0rt wrote:I should start up those HoF Debate threads I did 2 seasons ago again... in my mind, Pedro is a lock for the Hall of Fame. His peak was tremendous, he's not finished yet so he's still going to accumulate K and W, which the sports writers love, and he's arguably been the best pitcher of the last decade plus.


You should. There was some pretty good debates in those threads, I remember.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:52 am

jfg wrote:Pedro a lock? With 212 wins? Only 7 15+ win seasons? I think he'll get in but I don't know if he's first ballot like everyone thinks he'll be. He could be since there are so few pitchers from the 90's to now that will get in. The win total is still going to call for debate though.

Oh no, his 1.04 career WHIP, 3,069 K's in 2723 innings, 7 straight sub-1.10 WHIP years, sub-2.40 ERA in 6 of the 7 years between '97 and '03, eclipsing 76 ER only twice in his career, .691 career win % don't mean jack squat, do they? :-) We all know that wins are the most accurate representation of pitching ability, right?

1.04 career WHIP is just....wow. 8-o
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby Snakes Gould » Tue Aug 05, 2008 1:17 am

pedro's a lock in my book as well. mussina is going to have high 200's in wins, so i would venture to say he might get in as well, especially because he has played for the yankees for so long. andy pettite hasnt even been great in my book (ever) let alone hall of fame worthy, but i guess he'll get some of the same treatment that mussina will get. mussina only needs 36 more wins for 300. thats pretty close.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby thedude » Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:43 am

jfg wrote:Pedro a lock? With 212 wins? Only 7 15+ win seasons? I think he'll get in but I don't know if he's first ballot like everyone thinks he'll be. He could be since there are so few pitchers from the 90's to now that will get in. The win total is still going to call for debate though.



Was Sandy Koufax a debate? No, he was a first ballot Hall of Famer, elected before he turned 40. Pedro has a better peak than Koufax. He also has more career wins, a longer career, and did not pitch below average for half of his career (Koufax wasn't great until the pitching mound was raised).

Was Bob Gibson a debate? No, he was a first ballot Hall of Famer. Again, Pedro had a better peak.

There are many hall of famers without 300 wins, but were dominate enough to warrant induction. The guys that cannot get in without reaching 300 (Blyleven, Kaat, Tommy John) just were not nearly as dominate as Pedro. There are many first ballot HoFers who do not even come close to being as good as Pedro (Nolan Ryan comes to mind).
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby thedude » Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:48 am

Snakes Gould wrote:pedro's a lock in my book as well. mussina is going to have high 200's in wins, so i would venture to say he might get in as well, especially because he has played for the yankees for so long. andy pettite hasnt even been great in my book (ever) let alone hall of fame worthy, but i guess he'll get some of the same treatment that mussina will get. mussina only needs 36 more wins for 300. thats pretty close.



Mussina, Pettitte, David Wells, Curt Schilling are all maybe hall of famers. Schilling probably has the best chance because of the better peak and for his postseason heroics (2001 Diamondbacks and 2004 Red Sox). Pettitte was also a great postseason pitcher, but was not as good as prime Schilling.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby Bloody Sox » Tue Aug 05, 2008 10:45 am

Leena wrote:Pedro's ridiculous years in Boston should be enough to get in.

But, never underestimate the idiocy of sports writers. Especially since Pedro has had his struggles with the Mets. And he's probably right about the low win total.

I agree about the idiocy of sportswriters, but even they acknowledge that Pedro over the course of a 5-6 stretch was one of the best pitchers in the history of baseball, and over a 2 year stretch might have been the best ever. Any time you can use the words "best ever" about a guy, he is a no brainer.

I'm glad Pedro was in Boston for this stretch in time (from baseball-reference.com):
Martínez's strikeouts and win count were slightly down in 2000, but he posted an exceptional 1.74 ERA, the AL's lowest since 1978, winning his third Cy Young award. This is believed by some to be the greatest year ever by a pitcher, as his ERA was about a third of the park-adjusted league ERA (4.97). No other single season by a starting pitcher has had such a gigantic differential. Even more amazing about his 2000 season was his all-time record in one of the lesser known sabermetric statistics, Weighted Runs allowed per 9 innings pitched (Wtd. RA/9). It is considered by many to be the most accurate way to compare baseball players from different seasons and eras. To calculate the ratio, one takes the RA/9 by a player and multiplies this number by the ratio of the historical average for RA/9 divided by the league average RA/9 for that season. Martinez posted a remarkably low 1.55 Wtd. RA/9, a mind-boggling statistic.

In 2000, Pedro Martinez's WHIP (the number of hits and walks allowed per inning) was 0.74, breaking a 77-year-old record set by Walter Johnson. The American League slugged just .259 against him. Martinez became the only starting pitcher to have more than twice as many strikeouts in a season (284) than hits allowed (128).

In 1999 and 2000 Martinez allowed 288 hits, 597 strikeouts, 69 walks and a 1.90 ERA in 430 innings. Some statisticians believe that under the circumstances - with lefty-friendly Fenway Park as his home field, in a league with a DH, during the highest offensive period in baseball history - this performance represents the peak for any pitcher in baseball history.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby thejusman1 » Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:56 am

Randy Johnson is the next to win 300 without a doubt. At 293, he's already knocking on the door, and I'm sure he's such a competitor that he'll stay in uniform until he's either forced to retire due to injury or he reaches the milestone.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby TheA'sFatLeadoffMan » Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:17 pm

Pedro is a lock, his #'s throughout his prime were unimaginable especially when put in perspective with the fact that he was pitching in the AL during the height of the steroid era. His span of dominance was longer than Koufax's 5 year stretch and in my opinion more dominant, at his peak I would consider him as good as anyone that ever pitched. He's the best pitcher of this generation in my opinion, while his longevity does not comparable to a Clemens, Johnson, or Maddux, his dominance surpasses them.
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