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Who's the next to win 300?

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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby arod77 » Wed Aug 08, 2007 6:02 am

It will be tough but players who have a chance (in order).

1. C.C.
2. Peavy
3. Zambrano
4. Johan


You pretty much have to commit 20+ years to get to 300 wins. If Smoltz hadn't spend almost 3 years as a closer, I think he would have had a shot. Think about Maddux and Glavin...they were on really good teams which helped.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby partibrejker » Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:37 am

what i want to know is who will ever break Cy youngs Win record. THey speak about HR being so sacred and hard to beat, but what about Cy youngs Record of wins. I mean 511 wins, and not even anyone is close to it. Bonds just broke HR record and A-Rod will break it soon after this, and even Griffey would have had a chance if he stayed healthy. But Win record is just WOW.

but back to the topic i think Johan Santana could reach 300. You really have to pitch for 20 years and stay healthy the whole time.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby byfrcp » Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:13 am

partibrejker wrote:what i want to know is who will ever break Cy youngs Win record. THey speak about HR being so sacred and hard to beat, but what about Cy youngs Record of wins. I mean 511 wins, and not even anyone is close to it. Bonds just broke HR record and A-Rod will break it soon after this, and even Griffey would have had a chance if he stayed healthy. But Win record is just WOW.

but back to the topic i think Johan Santana could reach 300. You really have to pitch for 20 years and stay healthy the whole time.


Well Cy Young also LOST 316 games, and nobody will ever do that again either.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby partibrejker » Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:23 am

byfrcp wrote:
partibrejker wrote:what i want to know is who will ever break Cy youngs Win record. THey speak about HR being so sacred and hard to beat, but what about Cy youngs Record of wins. I mean 511 wins, and not even anyone is close to it. Bonds just broke HR record and A-Rod will break it soon after this, and even Griffey would have had a chance if he stayed healthy. But Win record is just WOW.

but back to the topic i think Johan Santana could reach 300. You really have to pitch for 20 years and stay healthy the whole time.


Well Cy Young also LOST 316 games, and nobody will ever do that again either.


very true ... i don't see that many pitchers coming to 300 in at least 5-10 years before we see another pitcher ... randy is closest with 284 and he is out for this season, so we really would have to wait at least 2 seasons out of him to see him reach that mark
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby daullaz » Wed Aug 08, 2007 2:39 pm

partibrejker wrote:what i want to know is who will ever break Cy youngs Win record. THey speak about HR being so sacred and hard to beat, but what about Cy youngs Record of wins. I mean 511 wins, and not even anyone is close to it. Bonds just broke HR record and A-Rod will break it soon after this, and even Griffey would have had a chance if he stayed healthy. But Win record is just WOW.

but back to the topic i think Johan Santana could reach 300. You really have to pitch for 20 years and stay healthy the whole time.


They don't talk about it because it's impossible to break.

Pitchers nowadays get only 35 starts in a season. 511 / 35 = 14.6.

So I would have to pitch almost 15 years, win every single game I start, and never miss time due to injury to tie Young.

If I just win 20 games every year of my career, and never miss time, it would take (511 / 20 = 25.55) over 25 years to break the record.

What I find more impressive is the Win % record. Minimum of 100 decisions:

1. Al Spalding .7960 R (1871-1877)
2. Spud Chandler .7170 R (1937-1947)
3. Pedro Martinez .6910 R (1992-2007)
4. Whitey Ford .6900 L (1950-1967)
Dave Foutz .6900 R (1884-1896)
Johan Santana .6900 L (2000-2007)
7. Bob Caruthers .6880 R (1884-1892)
8. Don Gullett .6860 L (1970-1976)
9. Lefty Grove .6800 L (1925-1941)
10. Roy Oswalt .6730 R (2001-2007)

Spalding, Ford, and Grove are HOFers. Martinez, Santana and Oswalt are active. Babe Ruth checks in at #12, by the way. Halladay and Hudson are 13th and 15th, respectively. Clemens is 21st.

How difficult will it be for Pedro to break Spalding's record? Pedro only has to win his next 154 decisions to do it.

Santana has a much better chance since he is a lot younger and has less decisions under his belt. Santana can break it if he wins his next 68 decisions and retires. Of course that's not going to happen. If he can go 20-2 his next six years, he'll have it. Not gonna happen, either.

Conceivably, it's a breakable record. Chad Billingsley has a .700 lifetime record through 20 decisions. If he goes 66-14 and retires, he'll have a .800 record. Yovani Gallardo is 4-1. If he can keep winning four out of five decisions for the rest of his career, he'll win it. If some young guy goes 16-4 or better for his first five years and blows out his arm/retires and never plays again, he'll be the new Win % champ.

It's more than likely that no one ever comes close to breaking this record, but I'd like to see Santana or Oswalt challenge for second.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby Whisp » Wed Aug 08, 2007 2:47 pm

so you're saying if a pitcher wins 80 of his first 100 starts, then gets mangled by a crocodile that eats his arm off, he would break the record?
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby dorje3 » Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:37 pm

Old_Style wrote:
dorje3 wrote:CC Sabathia? The guy has just over 100 wins and he seems to be the favorite to reach 300? I just don't get it.


Sabathia has 95 wins and is 26 years old. Take a look at the last three guys to reach 300 career wins. Maddux and Clemens had 95 wins by the age of 26. Glavine had 73 wins by 26.
Before the season is over, Sabathia could have 100 wins before the age of 27. He'll be on pace to eclipse 300 if he plays ball into his 40's.


It's not so much that he's on pace that bothers me. I am fairly certain that there are other players who have had the kind of early success that Sabathia has experienced. What perplexes me (in this conversation) is precisely CCs age. How can somebody at the age of 26, with barely 100 wins, be at the top of a list of candidates? Maybe because there are just so few candidates...

However, utilizing the 'age divided by wins' equation, why not put Felix at the top of the list? He's got 20 Ws and he's not even 22.

The fact that you point out that Clemens, Glavine and Maddux all had less wins at 26 only highlights how much work they did after their 27th birthdays.
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:54 pm

Old_Style wrote:The current wins leaders, under 300 career wins, include Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, David Wells, Jamie Moyer, Curt Schilling, and Pedro Martinez. I don't expect any of them to make 300, but there are a few younger guys that have a shot.

I think the two that have the best shots are Santana and Sabathia.
Zito, Zambrano, Buehrle, and Oswalt may get close. But it's not likely.

Does anyone think any of the current pitchers will win 300, or is Glavine the last of a dying breed for now?


I decided to revisit this topic with Randy Johnson within talking distance of 300. 293 wins and he hasn't talked about retiring after this season. He had a rough patch in early July, but has made up for that with 3 straight scoreless gems, lowering his ERA 1.11 runs in the past 28 days, and proving he can still pitch among the best. Mussina is 36 wins away but he's relatively young (39) compared to the recent players to reach 300. 3 more years after this season of 12+ wins isn't a stretch, and 4 years of 9+ even less so, especially given his resurgence this year.

Sabathia's averaged 14.3 wins per season from his rookie year to '07, putting him on pace for 285 at age 40. To reach 300 by age 42, he'd need only 12.6 wins per year. His injury history is next to nonexistent, and whoever said his build was a problem mixed him up with Prince Fielder. He's 6 foot 7 and 250 pounds, a lot of it muscle. Johan has less of a chance because he was in the pen for so much of his first few years and didn't get to start full-time until he was 25. 102 wins at age 29 would mean that if he were to retire at age 42, he'd need to average over 15 wins per year for the rest of his career. Incidentally, Tim Hudson is almost on the exact same pace with 146 wins at age 32, but his injury history will certainly catch up to him.

Also, lol at Barry Zito getting close. :-b
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby Old_Style » Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:08 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:

Also, lol at Barry Zito getting close. :-b


I knew that would come back to haunt me... !+)
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Re: Who's the next to win 300?

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Mon Aug 04, 2008 1:49 am

Do postseason wins count on the career win total? Becuase if so, it's possible that Randy could get number 300 in the playoffs this year.... that would be really really cool....
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