Atkins will be a great pick next year. Even when he wasn't putting up numbers at the beginning of the year his BB% and LD% were still good. He's a very solid 5th round pick next year.
Also, Matt Cain will never be anything more than an average pitcher unless he gets his terrible BB% and K/BB under control.
I took Zimmerman this year then traded him for Atkins later on, I also took Bay, I'm not going to make the same mistake twice...it is too hard to expect really above average #s from someone on a really bad team.
I think J.Shields will still be a steal next year with his mediocre second half.
Ryan Theriot will be a .300 - 100 R - 30-35 SB guy who will be available later than he should. Good OBP skills, good LD%.
Yeah well I hate to break the news to you all, but mixed league production (Most notably power) is way down this year. I am sure someone can run the numbers from a 10 team, mixed/5 OF league 2006 vs 2007, but I know in a number of my leagues that have been running for years, the leaders of the HR category typically got about 340-360 HRs. This year, they are on pace to barely get to 300 in our format and it is not because the bottom dwellers have closed the gap. Bottom line is that in the post-roids and post greenie era (at least in theory), big offensive numbers are down and you can't judge a season on 2006 criteria. A LOT of the players in the top rounds are disappointments this year as such. In fact, most the majority of them have not met expectations, especially the early rounders.
Here is a list from a typical experts mock-draft pre-season. Leaving the wisdom of the picks at the time out of it and based on what most people expected going in:
R1 P1 Rotowire Pujols, Albert 1B STL Predrafted - disappointment R1 P2 Creative Sports Howard, Ryan 1B PHI 53s - disappointment R1 P3 Baseball Notebook Santana, Johan P MIN 18s - OK R1 P4 Talented Mr. Roto Utley, Chase 2B PHI 20s - OK til he got hurt R1 P5 KFFL Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY 17s - Having a BIG year R1 P6 Big Dawg Baseball Reyes, Jose SS NYM 24s -OK R1 P7 Sportsblurb Ortiz, David DH BOS 4s - disappointment R1 P8 FantasyBaseball.com Soriano, Alfonso OF CHC 27s - disappointment R1 P9 Mock Draft Central Crawford, Carl OF TB 14s - mild disappointment R1 P10 The Sporting News Guerrero, Vladimir OF ANA 12s - disappointment R1 P11 Baseball HQ Wright, David 3B NYM 7s - Probably a better than expected year to most R1 P12 Rotopass Beltran, Carlos OF NYM 8s - disappointment
R2 P1 Rotopass Cabrera, Miguel 3B FLA 3s - OK R2 P2 Baseball HQ Lee, Carlos OF HOU 26s - OK R2 P3 The Sporting News Berkman, Lance 1B, OF HOU 12s - disappointment R2 P4 Mock Draft Central Holliday, Matt OF COL 12s - OK R2 P5 FantasyBaseball.com Jeter, Derek SS NYY 1m 30s - mild disappointment R2 P6 Sportsblurb Mauer, Joe C MIN 1m 18s - disappointment R2 P7 Big Dawg Baseball Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC 37s - disappointment R2 P8 KFFL Ramirez, Manny OF BOS 54s - disappointment R2 P9 Talented Mr. Roto Suzuki, Ichiro OF SEA 7s - OK R2 P10 Baseball Notebook Sizemore, Grady OF CLE 25s - OK R2 P11 Creative Sports Bay, Jason OF PIT 49s - big disappointment R2 P12 Rotowire Hafner, Travis DH CLE 13s - disappointment
R3 P1 Rotowire Teixeira, Mark 1B TEX 13s - disappointment (mostly due to the injury costing him time) R3 P2 Creative Sports Wells, Vernon OF TOR 1m 2s - big disappointment R3 P3 Baseball Notebook Carpenter, Chris P STL 26s - big disappointment R3 P4 Talented Mr. Roto Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI 25s - having a very good year R3 P5 KFFL Martinez, Victor 1B, C CLE 1m 12s - disappointment R3 P6 Big Dawg Baseball Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA 1m 26s - Better than predicted R3 P7 Sportsblurb Tejada, Miguel SS BAL 44s - disappointment R3 P8 FantasyBaseball.com Lee, Derrek 1B CHC 15s - disappointment R3 P9 Mock Draft Central Oswalt, Roy P HOU 21s - disappointment R3 P10 The Sporting News Morneau, Justin 1B MIN 8s - OK R3 P11 Baseball HQ Furcal, Rafael SS LA 6s - disappointment R3 P12 Rotopass Halladay, Roy P TOR 19s - disappointment
R4 P1 Rotopass Zambrano, Carlos P CHC 38s - mild disappointment R4 P2 Baseball HQ Roberts, Brian 2B BAL 4s - having a better than expected year R4 P3 The Sporting News Abreu, Bobby OF NYY 1m 22s - disappointment R4 P4 Mock Draft Central Webb, Brandon P ARI 7s OK R4 P5 FantasyBaseball.com Atkins, Garrett 3B COL 34s - disappointment R4 P6 Sportsblurb Figgins, Chone 3B, OF ANA 7s OK R4 P7 Big Dawg Baseball McCann, Brian C ATL 35s - disappointment R4 P8 KFFL Pierre, Juan OF LA 20s - dissapoinment R4 P9 Talented Mr. Roto Konerko, Paul 1B CHW 12s - disappointment R4 P10 Baseball Notebook Jones, Andruw OF ATL 18s - big disappointment R4 P11 Creative Sports Cano, Robinson 2B NYY 39s - disappointment R4 P12 Rotowire Lopez, Felipe SS WAS 9s - HUGE disappointment
R5 P1 Rotowire Rodriguez, Francisco P ANA 18s OK R5 P2 Creative Sports Young, Michael SS TEX 1m 11s - disappointment R5 P3 Baseball Notebook Dye, Jermaine OF CHW 28s - disappointment R5 P4 Talented Mr. Roto Peavy, Jake P SD 11s OK R5 P5 KFFL Nathan, Joe P MIN 38s OK R5 P6 Big Dawg Baseball Delgado, Carlos 1B NYM 55s - huge disappointment R5 P7 Sportsblurb Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS 2m 17s - huge disappointment R5 P8 FantasyBaseball.com Dunn, Adam OF CIN OK R5 P9 Mock Draft Central Guillen, Carlos SS DET 54s Having a good year R5 P10 The Sporting News Hall, Bill SS MIL 1m 8s - dissapoinment R5 P11 Baseball HQ Ryan, B.J. P TOR 20s - dissapoinment R5 P12 Rotopass Thome, Jim DH CHW 28s OK to disappointment
R6 P1 Rotopass Kazmir, Scott P TB 15s - disappointment R6 P2 Baseball HQ Damon, Johnny OF NYY 1m 3s - big disappointment R6 P3 The Sporting News Wagner, Billy P NYM 7s OK R6 P4 Mock Draft Central Lackey, John P ANA 19s OK R6 P5 FantasyBaseball.com Sheffield, Gary OF DET 1m 29s Better than expected R6 P6 Sportsblurb Uggla, Dan 2B FLA 19s Better than expected R6 P7 Big Dawg Baseball Sheets, Ben P MIL 9s - disappointment R6 P8 KFFL Matsui, Hideki OF NYY 1m 15s OK R6 P9 Talented Mr. Roto Rivera, Mariano P NYY 26s OK to mild disappointment R6 P10 Baseball Notebook Jones, Chipper 3B ATL 34s Having a good year R6 P11 Creative Sports Fielder, Prince 1B MIL 1m 7s Having a Great year R6 P12 Rotowire Rolen, Scott 3B STL 16s - huge disappointment
R7 P1 Rotowire Weeks, Rickie 2B MIL 38s - huge disappointment R7 P2 Creative Sports Hoffman, Trevor P SD 35s OK R7 P3 Baseball Notebook Putz, J.J. P SEA 25s OK R7 P4 Talented Mr. Roto Glaus, Troy 3B TOR 30s OK R7 P5 KFFL Smoltz, John P ATL 33s OK R7 P6 Big Dawg Baseball Saito, Takashi P LA 1m 15s OK R7 P7 Sportsblurb Bonderman, Jeremy P DET 12s mild disappointment R7 P8 FantasyBaseball.com Cordero, Chad P WAS 43s mild disappointment R7 P9 Mock Draft Central Helton, Todd 1B COL 8s Btter than expected year R7 P10 The Sporting News Young, Chris P SD 42s OK R7 P11 Baseball HQ Myers, Brett P PHI 3s - disappointment R7 P12 Rotopass Young, Delmon OF TB 9s OK
SecretAgentMan wrote:Yeah well I hate to break the news to you all, but mixed league production (Most notably power) is way down this year. I am sure someone can run the numbers from a 10 team, mixed/5 OF league 2006 vs 2007, but I know in a number of my leagues that have been running for years, the leaders of the HR category typically got about 340-360 HRs. This year, they are on pace to barely get to 300 in our format and it is not because the bottom dwellers have closed the gap. Bottom line is that in the post-roids and post greenie era (at least in theory), big offensive numbers are down and you can't judge a season on 2006 criteria. A LOT of the players in the top rounds are disappointments this year as such. In fact, most the majority of them have not met expectations, especially the early rounders.
Here is a list from a typical experts mock-draft pre-season. Leaving the wisdom of the picks at the time out of it and based on what most people expected going in:
R1 P1 Rotowire Pujols, Albert 1B STL Predrafted - disappointment R1 P2 Creative Sports Howard, Ryan 1B PHI 53s - disappointment R1 P3 Baseball Notebook Santana, Johan P MIN 18s - OK R1 P4 Talented Mr. Roto Utley, Chase 2B PHI 20s - OK til he got hurt R1 P5 KFFL Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY 17s - Having a BIG year R1 P6 Big Dawg Baseball Reyes, Jose SS NYM 24s -OK R1 P7 Sportsblurb Ortiz, David DH BOS 4s - disappointment R1 P8 FantasyBaseball.com Soriano, Alfonso OF CHC 27s - disappointment R1 P9 Mock Draft Central Crawford, Carl OF TB 14s - mild disappointment R1 P10 The Sporting News Guerrero, Vladimir OF ANA 12s - disappointment R1 P11 Baseball HQ Wright, David 3B NYM 7s - Probably a better than expected year to most R1 P12 Rotopass Beltran, Carlos OF NYM 8s - disappointment
R2 P1 Rotopass Cabrera, Miguel 3B FLA 3s - OK R2 P2 Baseball HQ Lee, Carlos OF HOU 26s - OK R2 P3 The Sporting News Berkman, Lance 1B, OF HOU 12s - disappointment R2 P4 Mock Draft Central Holliday, Matt OF COL 12s - OK R2 P5 FantasyBaseball.com Jeter, Derek SS NYY 1m 30s - mild disappointment R2 P6 Sportsblurb Mauer, Joe C MIN 1m 18s - disappointment R2 P7 Big Dawg Baseball Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC 37s - disappointment R2 P8 KFFL Ramirez, Manny OF BOS 54s - disappointment R2 P9 Talented Mr. Roto Suzuki, Ichiro OF SEA 7s - OK R2 P10 Baseball Notebook Sizemore, Grady OF CLE 25s - OK R2 P11 Creative Sports Bay, Jason OF PIT 49s - big disappointment R2 P12 Rotowire Hafner, Travis DH CLE 13s - disappointment
R3 P1 Rotowire Teixeira, Mark 1B TEX 13s - disappointment (mostly due to the injury costing him time) R3 P2 Creative Sports Wells, Vernon OF TOR 1m 2s - big disappointment R3 P3 Baseball Notebook Carpenter, Chris P STL 26s - big disappointment R3 P4 Talented Mr. Roto Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI 25s - having a very good year R3 P5 KFFL Martinez, Victor 1B, C CLE 1m 12s - disappointment R3 P6 Big Dawg Baseball Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA 1m 26s - Better than predicted R3 P7 Sportsblurb Tejada, Miguel SS BAL 44s - disappointment R3 P8 FantasyBaseball.com Lee, Derrek 1B CHC 15s - disappointment R3 P9 Mock Draft Central Oswalt, Roy P HOU 21s - disappointment R3 P10 The Sporting News Morneau, Justin 1B MIN 8s - OK R3 P11 Baseball HQ Furcal, Rafael SS LA 6s - disappointment R3 P12 Rotopass Halladay, Roy P TOR 19s - disappointment
R4 P1 Rotopass Zambrano, Carlos P CHC 38s - mild disappointment R4 P2 Baseball HQ Roberts, Brian 2B BAL 4s - having a better than expected year R4 P3 The Sporting News Abreu, Bobby OF NYY 1m 22s - disappointment R4 P4 Mock Draft Central Webb, Brandon P ARI 7s OK R4 P5 FantasyBaseball.com Atkins, Garrett 3B COL 34s - disappointment R4 P6 Sportsblurb Figgins, Chone 3B, OF ANA 7s OK R4 P7 Big Dawg Baseball McCann, Brian C ATL 35s - disappointment R4 P8 KFFL Pierre, Juan OF LA 20s - dissapoinment R4 P9 Talented Mr. Roto Konerko, Paul 1B CHW 12s - disappointment R4 P10 Baseball Notebook Jones, Andruw OF ATL 18s - big disappointment R4 P11 Creative Sports Cano, Robinson 2B NYY 39s - disappointment R4 P12 Rotowire Lopez, Felipe SS WAS 9s - HUGE disappointment
R5 P1 Rotowire Rodriguez, Francisco P ANA 18s OK R5 P2 Creative Sports Young, Michael SS TEX 1m 11s - disappointment R5 P3 Baseball Notebook Dye, Jermaine OF CHW 28s - disappointment R5 P4 Talented Mr. Roto Peavy, Jake P SD 11s OK R5 P5 KFFL Nathan, Joe P MIN 38s OK R5 P6 Big Dawg Baseball Delgado, Carlos 1B NYM 55s - huge disappointment R5 P7 Sportsblurb Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS 2m 17s - huge disappointment R5 P8 FantasyBaseball.com Dunn, Adam OF CIN OK R5 P9 Mock Draft Central Guillen, Carlos SS DET 54s Having a good year R5 P10 The Sporting News Hall, Bill SS MIL 1m 8s - dissapoinment R5 P11 Baseball HQ Ryan, B.J. P TOR 20s - dissapoinment R5 P12 Rotopass Thome, Jim DH CHW 28s OK to disappointment
R6 P1 Rotopass Kazmir, Scott P TB 15s - disappointment R6 P2 Baseball HQ Damon, Johnny OF NYY 1m 3s - big disappointment R6 P3 The Sporting News Wagner, Billy P NYM 7s OK R6 P4 Mock Draft Central Lackey, John P ANA 19s OK R6 P5 FantasyBaseball.com Sheffield, Gary OF DET 1m 29s Better than expected R6 P6 Sportsblurb Uggla, Dan 2B FLA 19s Better than expected R6 P7 Big Dawg Baseball Sheets, Ben P MIL 9s - disappointment R6 P8 KFFL Matsui, Hideki OF NYY 1m 15s OK R6 P9 Talented Mr. Roto Rivera, Mariano P NYY 26s OK to mild disappointment R6 P10 Baseball Notebook Jones, Chipper 3B ATL 34s Having a good year R6 P11 Creative Sports Fielder, Prince 1B MIL 1m 7s Having a Great year R6 P12 Rotowire Rolen, Scott 3B STL 16s - huge disappointment
R7 P1 Rotowire Weeks, Rickie 2B MIL 38s - huge disappointment R7 P2 Creative Sports Hoffman, Trevor P SD 35s OK R7 P3 Baseball Notebook Putz, J.J. P SEA 25s OK R7 P4 Talented Mr. Roto Glaus, Troy 3B TOR 30s OK R7 P5 KFFL Smoltz, John P ATL 33s OK R7 P6 Big Dawg Baseball Saito, Takashi P LA 1m 15s OK R7 P7 Sportsblurb Bonderman, Jeremy P DET 12s mild disappointment R7 P8 FantasyBaseball.com Cordero, Chad P WAS 43s mild disappointment R7 P9 Mock Draft Central Helton, Todd 1B COL 8s Btter than expected year R7 P10 The Sporting News Young, Chris P SD 42s OK R7 P11 Baseball HQ Myers, Brett P PHI 3s - disappointment R7 P12 Rotopass Young, Delmon OF TB 9s OK
Just because numbers are down doesn't mean players aren't worth as much as they used to be. It's all relative.
According to your ridiculous assessment, no one is worth owning except for A-Rod. I would call Jake Peavy in the fifth round outstanding, not just "OK". Ryan Howard has had a good season, I will take top 2 RBI's and top 2 HR's in the National League especially considering he missed 2+ weeks. He might not be worth the #2 pick, but he's certainly been worthy of a top 10 pick.
After the first 2 rounds, most drafts are going to have wildly varying degrees of success in terms of expected value. The consistent, proven studs are usually long gone after 25 picks.
Going back to the original post's idea, many players that have been listed are not likely to be cheap because they will still have a powerful name value. For instance, David Ortiz is having a really off year but the guy will probably still be drafted around where you expect because of the perceived bounce back factor. If anyone is to go cheap, they have to have installed a sense of worry/fear in the minds of drafters so as to stay away from being stuck with an anticipated anvil drop into mediocrity.
For example:
Bay Zimmerman Weeks Furcal Willis Rolen Damon etc
These are guys that, when compared to their 2008 peers, are bound to move down a tier or two in value. It would be up to the drafter to determine if they're worth taking a chance on late in the draft. Whether they return to favor at all (Weeks, Willis) is a good question, but you certainly don't have to reach for these cheap guys.
don't really see how you're getting pierre cheaper than normal and why you'd even want to...hes doing this year what he does every year, not getting on base very much but stealing a lot of bases and scoring some runs and basically not contributing anything else
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by Heiserman02 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 2:52 pm 
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