I was curious what your thoughts were about the top 10 picks for 2008, but for a keeper league. I know a lot of people will disagree with me, but I think Jose Reyes has a legitimate case for #1 overall. I took Reyes 2nd overall this season, and I have never dominated a league like I have this year. That pick spearheaded a trickle-down effect: by passing over Ryan Howard (who I considered there), I was able to land Justin Morneau in the 2nd round, then Carlos Lee, Garret Atkins, Justin Verlander, Cole Hammels, etc.
Besides Reyes, only BJ Upton on my team really gets any steals, yet I am #2 overall in steals based on Reyes alone. With him in my lineup, I am able to stack my DH spots with power guys (Carlos Pena and Frank Thomas), while others in my league have to start scrubby outfielders with speed to help in that category. I lead in HRs, RBIs and runs because of this.
Sure, Reyes' power numbers are down, but he'll still hit 12-15 bombs, steal 75+ bases, not to mention all the runs and solid average. Throw in the fact that he is still a kid, and down the road 20-25 HRs, 70-90 RBI, 70 SB years are very possible.
Here is my top 10 for next year (Keeper league):
1. Jose Reyes (see above, and yes, I know I am biased) 2. Chase Utley (simply heads and shoulders above anyone else at his position, young) 3. Albert Pujols (so many first baseman, but AP is obviously the cream of the crop) 4. Hanley Ramirez (same philosophy as Reyes) 5. Alex Rodriguez (in a re-draft, a likely #1 pick ... but he is 32 now, and I like a good 5-6 year plan) 6. Ryan Howard (young, just a beast ... I thought long and hard about taking him this year) 7. Grady Sizemore (I don't love this guy, but he has the tools to be a complete stud) 8. Miguel Cabrera (what a talent, young, fun to watch) 9. David Wright (see above, more speed ... might have a higher ceiling than Miggy, but here for now) 10. Justin Morneau (its time this guy gets some respect, this guy just rakes)
honorable mention: Matt Holliday, Johan Santana, David Ortiz
Would love to hear your thoughts. I know I left off some 30-year-old plus studs like Soriano, but again, I personally like choosing younger guys. I know others draft on talent alone, even if they are getting up there in age...
Good list. I also took Reyes 2nd overall in a dynasty league though. One change I would make, however, is I'd switch Holliday for Sizemore. It might just be preference but I'm much higher on Matt Holliday than I am on Sizemore at this point.
My rankings for keeper leagues aren't all that different from my rankings for redrafts:
1. Alex Rodriguez 2. Albert Pujols 3. Jose Reyes 4. Miguel Cabrera 5. Hanley Ramirez 6. Chase Utley 7. Johan Santana 8. Matt Holliday 9. Ryan Howard 10. David Wright --------------------- 11. Grady Sizemore 12. Jimmy Rollins 13. Alfonso Soriano 14. Justin Morneau 15. David Ortiz
I wouldn't rank Reyes #1 because off pure 4-cat production, A-Rod and Pujols are more valuable. I could see your point in ranking Reyes #1, exploiting how deep the corner positions can be (especially 1B), but a diamond in the rough like Carlos Pena is tricky to find and maintain whereas a hitter coming off a better-than-expected year such as Frank Thomas or Jermaine Dye are prone to regression. So, there's still virtue in taking stock in a high-average slugger the first couple of rounds if not, for anything, the reliability of producing top-tier numbers across 4 categories.
Another thing I'll say is age as a factor is overrated to a certain extent. Youth could translate into continued improvement over a certain time frame, but should that discourage you from taking A-Rod as a #1 pick? It shouldn't. A player that can dominate over the short term at the very least like A-Rod still gets the nod in my book over say, M-Cab or Sizemore. Furthermore, I wouldn't let the likes of Soriano slip further than early 2nd round because he still possesses the potential to go 25/25, 30/30.
1. Pujols 2. Reyes 3. Hanley 4. A-Rod 5. Utley 6. Howard 7. Wright (I still see large improvements over the next 5 years as he matures) 8. M-Cab 9. Sizemore 10. Holliday
I could put Rollins, Santana, Morneau and Peavy anywhere from 9-14 and would have been fine with it.
High Heater wrote:i'd rather have Hanley over Reyes and Prince over Howard and Morneau in a keeper league
Prince Fielder is an interesting pick, I thought of him as well ... however, how would you justify Prince over Morneau? Morneau won the MVP last year, and followed that up with a monster 2007 (so far). Prince Fielder really broke out this year (he was good last year, but not this good), but has shown signs of slowing down lately ... well, I guess until he hit that 450 foot bomb this week against Oliver Perez.
Still, I wouldn't raise an eyebrow is Fielder sneaks into the top 10 next year.
High Heater wrote:i'd rather have Hanley over Reyes and Prince over Howard and Morneau in a keeper league
Prince Fielder is an interesting pick, I thought of him as well ... however, how would you justify Prince over Morneau? Morneau won the MVP last year, and followed that up with a monster 2007 (so far). Prince Fielder really broke out this year (he was good last year, but not this good), but has shown signs of slowing down lately ... well, I guess until he hit that 450 foot bomb this week against Oliver Perez.
Still, I wouldn't raise an eyebrow is Fielder sneaks into the top 10 next year.
i think his potential cieling is as good with more power and hes 4 years younger then justin. only 2 things that put him over, but you cant go wrong with either one
theres really only a handfull of 1b elite now a days and nothing great brewing in the minors atm, i really think aside from 2b its just as scarce
High Heater wrote:i'd rather have Hanley over Reyes and Prince over Howard and Morneau in a keeper league
Prince Fielder is an interesting pick, I thought of him as well ... however, how would you justify Prince over Morneau? Morneau won the MVP last year, and followed that up with a monster 2007 (so far). Prince Fielder really broke out this year (he was good last year, but not this good), but has shown signs of slowing down lately ... well, I guess until he hit that 450 foot bomb this week against Oliver Perez.
Still, I wouldn't raise an eyebrow is Fielder sneaks into the top 10 next year.
Fielder hit 2 HR's this week and so business might be picking back up for him again. Like Howard, he has 50 HR potential, but for the moment, he takes a backseat to the more proven Howard and the marginally better all-around Morneau (especially in terms of BA) in my book. I'd put him as an early 2nd rounder where he and Ortiz are interchangeable.
Eh, keeper league top 10 lists should look about the same as non-keepers. I know age plays in to all keeper decisions, which I agree with, but don't get overboard on it. Reyes is amazing, again, i agree with that, but don't get too far ahead of yourself there. Keeper leagues break down a LOT... unless you and 9 or 11 of your closest friends in the world swear a blood oath to keep the league forever, I would say the average keeper league lasts not more than 3 years. I've been lucky to be in the same keeper league for 5 years now, however, 6 of the original 12 dudes who started the league are still in it - we've had to find quite a few replacements over the years. With this in mind, your top 10 list should look something like this:
Still seems like I have a lot of youth on that list, but some of the best dudes in the majors right now are really young. But again, having even one of these 10 guys in a keeper is money in the bank... I wouldn't mind keeping any one of these 10 guys from year to year. Even guys like Vlad and Ortiz are great to have, even if they're a tad older. Top 10 lists are a little too small a sample for keepers anyway; to really get a good idea for keepers, you want the top 50 or so, depending on how many teams are in your league.
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by NYCBuckeye » Sun Aug 05, 2007 1:23 pm 
