I'd strongly consider Schmidt. How could you not when you look at the numbers he put up the last few seasons? If he's healthy, he's a top 5 starter. So if you take an SP, make it Schmidt, if not, keep Smoltz. He's getting a bit long in the tooth, but he's still TCB.
"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"
"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
You have Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Curt Schilling?
I think Santana is going to have a great season and he has a fantastic upside both for this season and longterm in a keeper league. Many people haven't given him a close enough look. He's had better than 9K/9IP for the last two seasons, and went 8-1 after being named a full-time starter after the all-star break last year. In 2002 only your very own Randy Johnson had a better K/9 out of any pitcher that threw at least 100 innings.
Smoltz worries me, and with Johnson, Schilling, and Martinez as your keepers, I wouldn't add any grizzled old vets.
So for me that changes your question to, should I release Santana in the hopes that I can get Schmidt? If you are higher on Schmidt, and think if Schmidt is gone, Santana (whom you've now released) will most certainly be around, then I'd do it. If your not as certain as possible that if you cut Santana lose that either he or Schmidt will be available, I'd quit while I was ahead.
Me, I wouldn't gamble. I think Santana will be great this season, and for seasons to come.
Schmidt was Pedro Martinez-like last season, putting up Cy-Young numbers while pitching hurt. Even if the SF offense is less than stellar in 2004, their defense will definately aid in Jason's 2004 success. He has become one of the best pitchers in the game. He may be worth passing Santana up, but only if you have a REALLY good chance of getting him.
Johan Santana: $18
Santana is an amazing pitching prospect! His 2004 campaign will be exciting to follow, as he is fully deserving of a chance to start in the majors. But, is he really ready to become the Twins' ace? With your already dominant pitching staff, you are in a good position to give Santana a long trial.
John Smoltz: $16
Smoltz's health should at least draw an orange flag, if not a bright red one. His career will probably not extend much longer, as he will likely hang his cleats, in favor of teeing up with all the departed members of the Braves' old big four, sometime in the near future. There are less expensive closers that should be more valuable keepers than he is.