Loney for Upton? Is this kid for real? Sounds like huge upside but a big time chance to be a donkey. 6x6 h2h league. Either one will be playing everyday in my lineup... thoughts?
With Carlos Quentin suffering a hamstring injury, the Diamondbacks have called up top prospect Justin Upton. The kid reaches his 20th birthday on the 25th of this month.
The opening would seem to be right field, and Upton has played both right and center field in the minors. Chris Young has only played center this year so I figure he'll stay put. Also, I'd be surprised to see Upton get the call and not play every day.
Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein compares Upton to Ken Griffey Jr., but thinks he'll top Junior's age 19 line of .264/.329/.420. PECOTA had Upton at .256/.319/.415 for '07, drawing an unfortunate parallel to Ben Johnson. However, that didn't account for Upton's 2007 breakout. Miguel Cabrera might be a better comp; he hit .268/.325/.468 with 12 HR in 314 ABs as a 20 year-old. Both Miggy and Griffey skipped Triple A.
Unless he gets shy, it looks like Upton will attempt steals. He's attempted 30 this year in 101 games. I think it'd be a stretch to expect him to hit near .300 or hit more than 10 home runs over the next two months. He's probably worth a look in deep mixed leagues. And of course, he's prime keeper material.
Adam Jones was called up today as well, and my feelings haven't changed since his fake-callup. The million dollar question is whether to go for Jones or Upton in your fantasy league this year. They're very close but for different reasons.
Stolen base advantage: Upton. Ballpark advantage: Upton. Faced more advanced (Triple A) pitching: Jones. Hit for more power: Jones. Already had a big league taste: Jones. Having a great July: both. Better spot in the batting order: Upton. More secure playing time: Probably Upton.
It's not very scientific, but I'm going to give the slight edge to Upton for this year.
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by BJSFAN123 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 6:11 pm 
