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Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby Pirates4Life » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:53 pm

slomo007 wrote:Wow, this thread is full of sarcasm.

You guys are really nitpicking everything I say just because someone might have a differing opinion than you do on Upton. Nowhere have I said he's not a fantastic talent who could be capable of some incredible (30/30) seasons someday (or even better). What I am saying is that if you deal him now in keeper leagues, you can get practically anyone not named Albert or Johan. If you play it right, you could get a top notch prospect along with a major league stud also. That's all I'm saying. He won't be quite as valuable when he's a 30/30 OF player solely. Just keep that in mind.

Do I need to comb through my sentences for the bits and pieces that you'll pull out of context?


I didn't realize that he's definitely moving to the OF. I don't think the Rays know, either. That really hasn't been determined, and it probably depends on what the Rays decide to do in the future with Baldelli and/or Dukes. The only other option that I see for a long term 2B is Iwamura once Longoria makes the majors, but I have to wonder if the Rays will be better off with Baldelli in center and Upton staying at 2B as long as he can handle the position defensively.

It'll be interesting to see what happens if Baldelli comes back this year, because I imagine he'd take over in CF and Upton would shift back 2B.

If you play in leagues with people that know what they're doing, you aren't going to be able to trade Upton for a proven stud, much less a stud and a top prospect.

I play in a very competitive points based dynasty league, and I just recently made a significant trade because I'm the clear-cut team to beat, I lost Utley, and I didn't want to take the chance of him not making it back or struggling in our playoffs.

So, I dealt Chase Utley, Andy Laroche, Josh Johnson, and Matt Harrison for David Wright, BJ Upton, Eric Hurley, Johnny Cueto, and Luke Hochevar. And the rest of the league thought I got an absolute steal. I have Brandon Phillips and Kelly Johnson to fall back on at 2B, and BJ Upton will still qualify there for next year... and maybe longer. You may be able to get solid value for Upton, but no one who knows much is going to give up what you described in a keeper or dynasty league
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby ScrappyDoo » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:56 pm

I get him next year in the 25th round in my keeper league.

Whats not to like about him, hes improved every step of the way this year. His power is obviously there. And hes done this without being a constant in the lineup. He spend a little bit batting all over the lineup in the beginning and has missed a few games to injury. If he had played at the top of the lineup all year and didnt have that injury wed be looking a much better numbers, including more steals since he hasnt stolen a base since his pull.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby Rounders » Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:08 pm

slomo007 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:Wow, this thread is full of sarcasm.

You guys are really nitpicking everything I say just because someone might have a differing opinion than you do on Upton. Nowhere have I said he's not a fantastic talent who could be capable of some incredible (30/30) seasons someday (or even better). What I am saying is that if you deal him now in keeper leagues, you can get practically anyone not named Albert or Johan. If you play it right, you could get a top notch prospect along with a major league stud also. That's all I'm saying. He won't be quite as valuable when he's a 30/30 OF player solely. Just keep that in mind.

Do I need to comb through my sentences for the bits and pieces that you'll pull out of context?


30/30 OF is easily top 10 overall.


But a potential 30/30 player with all kinds of eligibility who is currently sporting a .330 unsustainable avg is easily worth more.


He'll still be available at 2B next year due to all the games he started there this year. So, at least for '08 he'll be valuable due to that coveted 2B eligibility. After that, he may only be at OF, but that's still the a shallow position (after C and 2B of course), since you usually have to play between 3-5 OFers.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby Yoda » Fri Sep 21, 2007 3:57 pm

Compare Utley's first full season with Upton's so far:

UT- 147 G, 93 R, 39 2B, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 68 BB, 109 K, 16 SB, .291 AVG, .376 OBP, .540 SLG, .915 OPS
UP - 121 G, 83 R, 25 2B, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 61 BB, 146 K, 19 SB, .307 AVG, .390 OBP, .527 SLG, .917 OPS

Now consider the fact that Utley was 26 at the time and Upton, 22 most of this year. Also need to account for the month+ playing time Upton lost, poorer support and line up spot he hit in earlier in the season. I am not saying Upton is as good as Utley. Yet. But they are a lot closer than most of us (including myself) originally thought.

One main issue is Upton's Ks. He needs to work on them if he wants to improve on his numbers this year.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby RynMan » Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:17 am

I'm huge on the kid (and I emphasize 'kid'). We all know that he isn't going to sustain a .320+ batting average next year. It's no secret. However, I doubt that he ends up a .260 hitter either...especially with his speed. The thing people should be talking about is the amazing adjustments that he has made progressively....

Pirates4Life wrote:April: 6:27 in 80 plate appearances. BB every 13.3 ABs, K every 3.0 ABs
May: 14:32 in 109 plate appearances. BB every 8.0 ABs, K every 3.4 ABs
June: 2:9 in 33 plate appearances, came back from an injury
July 12:16 in 81 plate appearances. BB every 6.7 ABs, K every 5.1 ABs


This is what is interesting about him. Adjusting to the league.

2008, I see .280, 30 HR, 110 runs, 110 RBI, 40 steals. That's money.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby sandman042 » Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:02 am

next yr IMO

Utley is still the better choice in my opinion. but U[ton can def be as good if not better...

my rankings for next yr


1)Utley(the obvious choice)
2)Philips(Huge yr from philips in 07, finnally playing to potential)
3)Upton( Big yr but not as good as Utley and Philips)
4)Cano( His power has gone up every yr. maybe 25+ yr)
5)Roberts( consistant every yr. u know what u r getting)
6)Uggla( great production but poor avg and k-rate that makes him drop in ranking)
7)Kendrick( If healthy can hit .350+ maybe he moves up to the 2-hole in lineup.. he hoit well over .350 after allstar break this yr, but lack of power will cost him a spot maybe 10-15 homers)
8)Kent( if healthy he can hit .285 20+ homers)
9)Kinsler( Great start then slowed down alot.. i think kinsler has a huge yr 20+ homers maybe .280--.290 avg)
10)weeks(i know im prob gonna get alot of grief from this but i think weeks is a top 10 2nd next yr) he showed signs of greatness i think next yr he has a breakout yr.)
11)Polanco( very underated 2nd.. i dont think hell hit .340 but hell def hit .300+ with 90-100 runs)
12)Mark Ellis(sleeper for next yr at 2nd ... ill think hell hit 20+ homers bat .260-.275)
13)KelleyJohnson- started off yr great slowed down and pick the pace up again.. although very inconistsnat i can see him repeating something like this yr's numbers assuming he gets playing time because of the escobar/renteria situation johnson might be the odd man out and platoon. lets hope he doesnt)
14)Pedroia(great rookie yr but i dont think hell match the rookie yr he had also hes a one deimensional player hell just get hits.)
15)aaron hill- started off good and just slowed down.. i say he breaks the top 15


thats apretty good ranking IMO but theres always supruises like philips big season and uptons.


what u guys think?
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby dclark0699 » Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:24 am

sandman042 wrote:next yr IMO

Utley is still the better choice in my opinion. but U[ton can def be as good if not better...

my rankings for next yr


1)Utley(the obvious choice)
2)Philips(Huge yr from philips in 07, finnally playing to potential)
3)Upton( Big yr but not as good as Utley and Philips)
4)Cano( His power has gone up every yr. maybe 25+ yr)
5)Roberts( consistant every yr. u know what u r getting)
6)Uggla( great production but poor avg and k-rate that makes him drop in ranking)
7)Kendrick( If healthy can hit .350+ maybe he moves up to the 2-hole in lineup.. he hoit well over .350 after allstar break this yr, but lack of power will cost him a spot maybe 10-15 homers)
8)Kent( if healthy he can hit .285 20+ homers)
9)Kinsler( Great start then slowed down alot.. i think kinsler has a huge yr 20+ homers maybe .280--.290 avg)
10)weeks(i know im prob gonna get alot of grief from this but i think weeks is a top 10 2nd next yr) he showed signs of greatness i think next yr he has a breakout yr.)
11)Polanco( very underated 2nd.. i dont think hell hit .340 but hell def hit .300+ with 90-100 runs)
12)Mark Ellis(sleeper for next yr at 2nd ... ill think hell hit 20+ homers bat .260-.275)
13)KelleyJohnson- started off yr great slowed down and pick the pace up again.. although very inconistsnat i can see him repeating something like this yr's numbers assuming he gets playing time because of the escobar/renteria situation johnson might be the odd man out and platoon. lets hope he doesnt)
14)Pedroia(great rookie yr but i dont think hell match the rookie yr he had also hes a one deimensional player hell just get hits.)
15)aaron hill- started off good and just slowed down.. i say he breaks the top 15


thats apretty good ranking IMO but theres always supruises like philips big season and uptons.


what u guys think?


i still do not see what makes Howie Kendrick any different than Freddy Sanchez. Yet Kendrick is always ranked miles ahead of him.

Last year....Freddy hit .344 6 HR 85 RBI 85 Runs 3 SB
This year....Freddy-----.306 11 HR 80 RBI 77 Runs 0 SB

Last Year Kendrick - .285 4 HR 30 RBI 25 Runs 6 SB
This Year Kendrick - .326 5 HR 37 RBI 52 Runs 4 SB

Now I understand that Kendrick missed a large portion of this season with injury...but even the per AB avg would be very similar between the two.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby talan37 » Tue Sep 25, 2007 12:09 pm

Upton has had a great season, but you praise his early season improvement in k-rate and bb-rate and then fail to mention his late season collapse. So he had a mid-season improvement, but then his k-rate and BB-rate quickly went back down the toilet. His average has also dropped precipitously, he hit .270 and .260 respectively in August and September because of slightly normalized BABIP for that month, his slugging and obp have also suffered as a result of this as well.

July PA:84 BB%:16.7 K%:19.0
August PA:134 BB%:13.4 K%: 27.6
September PA:91 BB%:13.2 K%: 29.7


This is really messy I know, but the important part is in the home/away splits. I bolded the BABIP and AVG, and you can see the respective differences. With a future BABIP likely to be more like the lower one, than the higher one.(due to law of averages)


Split Statistics with Tampa Bay in 2007
Split PA AB ISOP HR BB% K% BABIP GB% LD% AVG OBP SLG wOBA
April 81 74 .324 5 7.4% 33.3% .524 30% 30% .365 .407 .689 .456
May 111 95 .147 3 12.6% 28.8% .417 60% 13% .295 .396 .442 .375
June 34 31 .226 1 5.9% 26.5% .381 43% 29% .290 .353 .516 .374
July 84 69 .261 5 16.7% 19.0% .417 44% 19% .362 .451 .623 .428
August 134 115 .200 7 13.4% 27.6% .338 46% 26% .270 .356 .470 .343
September 91 77 .169 3 13.2% 29.7% .362 35% 25% .260 .352 .429 .342

AWAY 257 225 .218 11 11.7% 28.4% .468 42% 22% .342 .409 .560 .403
HOME 278 236 .212 13 12.9% 27.0% .338 46% 23% .267 .365 .479 .363

He is a great talent, but he seriously needs to improve his batting eye, I still stand by my original assesment of Adam dunn like batting average. Upton's peripherals are worse in every aspect for average(less walks, more Ks, more groundballs, same linedrive). Is adam dunn likely to improve his periphs? NO. Is upton likely to improve YES, but he still does need to do so as the end of the season splits show. He has the potential makings of a fantasy all-star, but the keyword in that sentence is potential.

I am not a hater, not a lover of bj upton, just trying to point out stats which indicate trends.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby Yoda » Tue Sep 25, 2007 12:35 pm

talan37 wrote:Upton has had a great season, but you praise his early season improvement in k-rate and bb-rate and then fail to mention his late season collapse. So he had a mid-season improvement, but then his k-rate and BB-rate quickly went back down the toilet. His average has also dropped precipitously, he hit .270 and .260 respectively in August and September because of slightly normalized BABIP for that month, his slugging and obp have also suffered as a result of this as well.

July PA:84 BB%:16.7 K%:19.0
August PA:134 BB%:13.4 K%: 27.6
September PA:91 BB%:13.2 K%: 29.7


This is really messy I know, but the important part is in the home/away splits. I bolded the BABIP and AVG, and you can see the respective differences. With a future BABIP likely to be more like the lower one, than the higher one.(due to law of averages)


Split Statistics with Tampa Bay in 2007
Split PA AB ISOP HR BB% K% BABIP GB% LD% AVG OBP SLG wOBA
April 81 74 .324 5 7.4% 33.3% .524 30% 30% .365 .407 .689 .456
May 111 95 .147 3 12.6% 28.8% .417 60% 13% .295 .396 .442 .375
June 34 31 .226 1 5.9% 26.5% .381 43% 29% .290 .353 .516 .374
July 84 69 .261 5 16.7% 19.0% .417 44% 19% .362 .451 .623 .428
August 134 115 .200 7 13.4% 27.6% .338 46% 26% .270 .356 .470 .343
September 91 77 .169 3 13.2% 29.7% .362 35% 25% .260 .352 .429 .342

AWAY 257 225 .218 11 11.7% 28.4% .468 42% 22% .342 .409 .560 .403
HOME 278 236 .212 13 12.9% 27.0% .338 46% 23% .267 .365 .479 .363

He is a great talent, but he seriously needs to improve his batting eye, I still stand by my original assesment of Adam dunn like batting average. Upton's peripherals are worse in every aspect for average(less walks, more Ks, more groundballs, same linedrive). Is adam dunn likely to improve his periphs? NO. Is upton likely to improve YES, but he still does need to do so as the end of the season splits show. He has the potential makings of a fantasy all-star, but the keyword in that sentence is potential.

I am not a hater, not a lover of bj upton, just trying to point out stats which indicate trends.


You are taking way too much stock in BABIP and small sample sizes. Also, he is twice as fast as Dunn which means he will turn a lot of weak grounders into hits in comparison. He is only 22 and already has a 20-20 season under his belt. Even if he hits .260-270 as you suggest next year, he will be a top 2B.

Think about this for a second. When Utley was his age, he was getting his first full pro season under his belt at A ball. Upton will be just fine.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby RynMan » Wed Sep 26, 2007 7:57 pm

Yoda wrote:Think about this for a second. When Utley was his age, he was getting his first full pro season under his belt at A ball. Upton will be just fine.


That's the kicker for me.
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