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Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby slomo007 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:13 pm

Pirates4Life wrote:
slomo007 wrote:That is a very good article. ;-D

Hopefully Upton owners heed the advice and sell while they can...especially in keeper leagues where you might get stuck with a .260 hitter next year and you can get practically anyone back in return.


So let me get this straight.

I'm supposed to put a lot of weight in "career" minor league numbers of a kid who was a 19 year old that batted .327 in AA and followed that up as a 20 and 21 year old who succeeded in AAA a few years before most prospects even make it there? Forgive me, but I hardly think that a kid who just recently became a legal drinker has reached his peak as far as his baseball skills are concerned.

He never hit more than 18 HRs in a minor league season? OH MY!!! Did the author of the article notice that he was a 20 year old in AAA when he did it, and those HRs (in 545 ABs, mind you) were accompanied by 44 SBs and a .303 BA? Hmmmmm, I wonder if power is one of those things that develops as a player gets older.

And I'm supposed to forget the fact that he's a 22 year old getting his first extended look at major league pitching, playing every day, batting 3rd in an improving lineup, and was one of the most highly regarded prospects to come up in the last few years?

And I'm supposed to disregard the large improvement he's made in pitch recognition and both his walk and strikeout rates over the past few months? LOL, you can look at the improvement he made in that area in my last post.

Yes, a few of his rates will normalize, but improving in other areas can very easily keep him performing at a high level, and he's got a lot of room and time for improvement. He's been on the radar for so long that people forget how young he is. If he bats .300 or .310 instead of .340, so what? The kid's got a TON of talent, and he's only just starting to show it.


What he's saying, is that there is almost a 0 percent probability that his average will end up anywhere close to where it is now by this point next year. It just doesn't happen, given his babip. Soooo....he's saying that in keeper leagues you could get probably get a top 10 pick value out of him if you are willing to deal him. Why not reduce the risk and go with a more proven prospect? Of course Upton's upside is huge, but I think you're looking at his upside right now...until he develops more power. And players don't always just develop power easily.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby Yoda » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:14 pm

Pirates4Life wrote:
slomo007 wrote:That is a very good article. ;-D

Hopefully Upton owners heed the advice and sell while they can...especially in keeper leagues where you might get stuck with a .260 hitter next year and you can get practically anyone back in return.


So let me get this straight.

I'm supposed to put a lot of weight in "career" minor league numbers of a kid who was a 19 year old that batted .327 in AA and followed that up as a 20 and 21 year old who succeeded in AAA a few years before most prospects even make it there? Forgive me, but I hardly think that a kid who just recently became a legal drinker has reached his peak as far as his baseball skills are concerned.

He never hit more than 18 HRs in a minor league season? OH MY!!! Did the author of the article notice that he was a 20 year old in AAA when he did it, and those HRs (in 545 ABs, mind you) were accompanied by 44 SBs and a .303 BA? Hmmmmm, I wonder if power is one of those things that develops as a player gets older.

And I'm supposed to forget the fact that he's a 22 year old getting his first extended look at major league pitching, playing every day, batting 3rd in an improving lineup, and was one of the most highly regarded prospects to come up in the last few years?

And I'm supposed to disregard the large improvement he's made in pitch recognition and both his walk and strikeout rates over the past few months? LOL, you can look at the improvement he made in that area in my last post.

Yes, a few of his rates will normalize, but improving in other areas can very easily keep him performing at a high level, and he's got a lot of room and time for improvement. He's been on the radar for so long that people forget how young he is. If he bats .300 or .310 instead of .340, so what? The kid's got a TON of talent, and he's only just starting to show it.


I agree. There is a reason why I NEVER go to ESPN for anything. They don't account for his age or competition at all. He is also very fast and can leg out a lot of balls on the ground. But hey, I want people to doubt him because that only means I will get him cheap.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby Yoda » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:16 pm

slomo007 wrote:And players don't always just develop power easily.


Yeah you are right. Just ask Hanley. ;-7
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby slomo007 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:18 pm

Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:And players don't always just develop power easily.


Yeah you are right. Just ask Hanley. ;-7


Oh come on, do we really need to list prospects that never developed much power at the major league level? I'm not saying he won't develop it....I'm just saying that is it worth the risk when you can get so much value for him right now?
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby Yoda » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:21 pm

slomo007 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:And players don't always just develop power easily.


Yeah you are right. Just ask Hanley. ;-7


Oh come on, do we really need to list prospects that never developed much power at the major league level? I'm not saying he won't develop it....I'm just saying that is it worth the risk when you can get so much value for him right now?


Actually you said this about a 22 yo top prospect who is having a breakout year in his 1st full MLB season:
slomo007 wrote:I think you're looking at his upside right now...until he develops more power.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby Pirates4Life » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:22 pm

slomo007 wrote:
Pirates4Life wrote:
slomo007 wrote:That is a very good article. ;-D

Hopefully Upton owners heed the advice and sell while they can...especially in keeper leagues where you might get stuck with a .260 hitter next year and you can get practically anyone back in return.


So let me get this straight.

I'm supposed to put a lot of weight in "career" minor league numbers of a kid who was a 19 year old that batted .327 in AA and followed that up as a 20 and 21 year old who succeeded in AAA a few years before most prospects even make it there? Forgive me, but I hardly think that a kid who just recently became a legal drinker has reached his peak as far as his baseball skills are concerned.

He never hit more than 18 HRs in a minor league season? OH MY!!! Did the author of the article notice that he was a 20 year old in AAA when he did it, and those HRs (in 545 ABs, mind you) were accompanied by 44 SBs and a .303 BA? Hmmmmm, I wonder if power is one of those things that develops as a player gets older.

And I'm supposed to forget the fact that he's a 22 year old getting his first extended look at major league pitching, playing every day, batting 3rd in an improving lineup, and was one of the most highly regarded prospects to come up in the last few years?

And I'm supposed to disregard the large improvement he's made in pitch recognition and both his walk and strikeout rates over the past few months? LOL, you can look at the improvement he made in that area in my last post.

Yes, a few of his rates will normalize, but improving in other areas can very easily keep him performing at a high level, and he's got a lot of room and time for improvement. He's been on the radar for so long that people forget how young he is. If he bats .300 or .310 instead of .340, so what? The kid's got a TON of talent, and he's only just starting to show it.


What he's saying, is that there is almost a 0 percent probability that his average will end up anywhere close to where it is now by this point next year. It just doesn't happen, given his babip. Soooo....he's saying that in keeper leagues you could get probably get a top 10 pick value out of him if you are willing to deal him. Why not reduce the risk and go with a more proven prospect? Of course Upton's upside is huge, but I think you're looking at his upside right now...until he develops more power. And players don't always just develop power easily.


Until he develops more power?????

You mean that a 22 year old hitting 14 HRs and 19 doubles in 269 ABs isn't developing power fast enough for you? That's a 31 HR pace over 600 ABs for crying out loud!

I mean, 2 years ago as a TWENTY YEAR OLD he had 18 HRs, 36 doubles, and drew 78 walks in AAA in 545 ABs.

Wow, you're a pretty harsh critic!
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby Yoda » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:24 pm

Well .231 ISO and .560 SLG is clearly not enough power for a 22 yo. ;-7
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby slomo007 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:31 pm

Wow, this thread is full of sarcasm.

You guys are really nitpicking everything I say just because someone might have a differing opinion than you do on Upton. Nowhere have I said he's not a fantastic talent who could be capable of some incredible (30/30) seasons someday (or even better). What I am saying is that if you deal him now in keeper leagues, you can get practically anyone not named Albert or Johan. If you play it right, you could get a top notch prospect along with a major league stud also. That's all I'm saying. He won't be quite as valuable when he's a 30/30 OF player solely. Just keep that in mind.

Do I need to comb through my sentences for the bits and pieces that you'll pull out of context?
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby Yoda » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:33 pm

slomo007 wrote:Wow, this thread is full of sarcasm.

You guys are really nitpicking everything I say just because someone might have a differing opinion than you do on Upton. Nowhere have I said he's not a fantastic talent who could be capable of some incredible (30/30) seasons someday (or even better). What I am saying is that if you deal him now in keeper leagues, you can get practically anyone not named Albert or Johan. If you play it right, you could get a top notch prospect along with a major league stud also. That's all I'm saying. He won't be quite as valuable when he's a 30/30 OF player solely. Just keep that in mind.

Do I need to comb through my sentences for the bits and pieces that you'll pull out of context?


30/30 OF is easily top 10 overall.
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Re: Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

Postby slomo007 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:34 pm

Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:Wow, this thread is full of sarcasm.

You guys are really nitpicking everything I say just because someone might have a differing opinion than you do on Upton. Nowhere have I said he's not a fantastic talent who could be capable of some incredible (30/30) seasons someday (or even better). What I am saying is that if you deal him now in keeper leagues, you can get practically anyone not named Albert or Johan. If you play it right, you could get a top notch prospect along with a major league stud also. That's all I'm saying. He won't be quite as valuable when he's a 30/30 OF player solely. Just keep that in mind.

Do I need to comb through my sentences for the bits and pieces that you'll pull out of context?


30/30 OF is easily top 10 overall.


But a potential 30/30 player with all kinds of eligibility who is currently sporting a .330 unsustainable avg is easily worth more.
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