Chase Utley vs. BJ Upton

[BJSFAN123]

Yea Upton no doubt will be a 30/30 guy in the future, I think he was on pace for about 30/30 before his injury, he hasn't gotten a sb since though

[Mugrila]

Its also weird how all of a sudden Upton has become a valable fantasy player when before he couldn't stay in the bigs...maybe be figured it out overnight, but I will certainly be skeptical of him next season

Well it wasn't his bat that kept him down.

[Rounders]

Since Upton will still qualify at both 2B and OF next year, what round would you put him in for a vanilla 5x5, 12 team league?

If you prorate his stats, he would be close to 30/30 in a full season, and he's hitting .330. I know he can't keep up the .330 avg, but even if he keeps it over .300 - does he crack the top 5 rounds next year, or are you looking for him somewhere in the 6th-8th round area?

[Yoda]

Since Upton will still qualify at both 2B and OF next year, what round would you put him in for a vanilla 5x5, 12 team league?

If you prorate his stats, he would be close to 30/30 in a full season, and he's hitting .330. I know he can't keep up the .330 avg, but even if he keeps it over .300 - does he crack the top 5 rounds next year, or are you looking for him somewhere in the 6th-8th round area?

I am hoping that people focus on his Ks and I can grab him later. I will definitely be talking up his K rate before the draft.

[Pirates4Life]

I wonder how many people are noticing the improvement BJ is showing in his BB:K ratio, walk rate, and strikeout rate:

April: 6:27 in 80 plate appearances. BB every 13.3 ABs, K every 3.0 ABs
May: 14:32 in 109 plate appearances. BB every 8.0 ABs, K every 3.4 ABs
June: 2:9 in 33 plate appearances, came back from an injury
July 12:16 in 81 plate appearances. BB every 6.7 ABs, K every 5.1 ABs

That's huge improvement and very impressive for someone that young. His alarming strikeout numbers are due more to April and May, and improvement like this will go a long way towards helping him maintain an impressive BA and OBP. If he can continue it, that is.

There's a chance that the Rays will end up using him in CF. But there's also a chance that the Rays feel they're better off with someone else like Baldelli in CF (if he can get healthy) and Upton at 2B. He's got a chance to be special, no matter where he ends up. Comparing him to Utley right now isn't really fair, but it may not be in a couple years - or even next year - if Upton ends up at 2B.

[talan37]

His babip, high groundball %, normal line% and k's are still awful. His peripheral numbers say he should have a batting average even lower than adam dunn. If he was hitting .250 instead of .330 people wouldn't be nearly as excited about him. It might not be this year that his babip comes back to earth, but unless something drastic changes, it will, and it will come down a lot.

[Yoda]

His babip, high groundball %, normal line% and k's are still awful. His peripheral numbers say he should have a batting average even lower than adam dunn. If he was hitting .250 instead of .330 people wouldn't be nearly as excited about him. It might not be this year that his babip comes back to earth, but unless something drastic changes, it will, and it will come down a lot.

I disagree completely. He's always K'd a lot and had a high BABIP in the minors but maintained his AVG well over .300. He may not hit .330 but he will not be Adam Dunn either. Also you are not accounting for the fact that he is only 22 and taking a gigantic step forward in development.

http://firstinning.com/players/B.J.-Upton-a/

[talan37]

I am sure he will continue to develop, and that may be a good reason to be high on him.

Babip and average can fluctuate wildly in the minors and are a lot less reliable because the defense just isn't as good. Cameron maybin is a great example of this. He has a horrible linedrive rate(9%!!!) and a huge groundball percent(60%), which means hes basically slamming the ball into the ground every at bat.(with similar k'rates to upton), yet maintains a decent average because hes pretty fast and the defense is not up to par.

But gb%, ld%, fb%, combined with k% are very good indicators of someones batting average(in the majors), or do you think bj upton is so good that he can do things with the ball that noone else in the league can?

Here is it explained pretty succinctly from espn: Its about a week old so a few numbers are a little off, but basically the same.


-----------------
What he was expected to do
For three years, Tampa Bay fans impatiently waited for this top prospect to make it to the majors. There was no question he could hit: a .296 batting average in 1,800 minor league at-bats, with pop potential and speed to burn (in 2005-06, he stole 90 bases).

However, he was a defensive liability, and so his major league opportunities were sparse. In 2004, he managed 159 at-bats with a meager .258 average, four home runs and four steals. In 2006, he posted 175 at-bats, but did not fare much better -- .246 with a homer and 11 steals. In those two short stints, he struggled mightily against right-handed pitchers, batting just .197.

So, coming into 2007, expectations were tempered. At BaseballHQ.com, we projected a moderate growth year: 7 homers, 30 steals and a .262 average in 420 at-bats.

What he has done
Upton has surpassed all expectations. Through Sunday, he was batting .339 with 12 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 236 at-bats. BaseballHQ.com full-season projections now have him finishing with 17 HRs, 26 SBs and a .313 average, though his pace suggests those levels might be conservative.

In his entire minor league career, Upton never hit more than 18 home runs in a season. He batted over .300 four times, but in full-season play never more than .315.

Looking at his component skills, Upton is posting a 12-percent walk rate, which is right in line with his career totals. But that's where all similarities end.

The disconnect
Upton's contact rate (CT) is currently 67 percent. Over the past three years, he has averaged a 79-percent rate. That is a huge difference. His historical level correlates with about a .270 batting average; his current rate is at a level that suggests a .250 hitter.

In fact, here are the other players this year who are posting a contact rate of about 67 percent:


Player CT BA
David Ross .66 .190
Josh Fields .66 .245
Todd Linden .67 .225
Joe Borchard .67 .199


CT is contact rate. Statistics as of July 23.


Nobody even close to .300. It's tough to have a good batting average when you make so little contact. So what is Upton's secret?

Maybe he is just hitting the ball hard? We might see this reflected in a high line drive rate. But Upton's rate is just 20 percent, which is about 2-percent below the league average.

The real reason for his success is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Currently, his BABIP is about .470. That is a remarkable level. Essentially, nearly half of his fair-batted balls are dropping for hits.

But research has shown that, for hitters, BABIP regresses to their own personal benchmark level, particularly over the past three years. Upton's BABIP over the past three years was .330.

If that variance alone wasn't reason enough to expect a regression, here are all the players from the past five years who maintained a BABIP of even .400 for an entire season. Also listed is their batting average the following year:


Player Year BABIP BA Next Year BA
Wily Mo Pena 2006 .411 .301 .202
Jose Hernandez 2002 .406 .288 .225
Ichiro Suzuki 2004 .401 .372 .303
Todd Pratt 2002 .400 .311 .272

BABIP is batting average on balls in play. 2007 statistics as of July 23.

That's it. Just four players in five years, and nobody even close to Upton's .470. None of this quartet were able to follow up their feat the following year. Upton's current BABIP is so far off the board that it is beyond what we could even consider an outlier.

What this all means is that a crash is coming.

If you are a B.J. Upton owner, it is going to be tough to convince yourself that he should be shopped. But his value is going to be no higher than it is right now, and if your team is in need of some commodity that he does not provide, now is the time to maximize your return.


-------End Article

Don't get me wrong, I like Upton, but I also think his numbers are grossly inflated, and still represent a relatively small sample space.(260ish abs) When his luck comes back to earth, his numbers are going to dip drastically.

[slomo007]

That is a very good article.

Hopefully Upton owners heed the advice and sell while they can...especially in keeper leagues where you might get stuck with a .260 hitter next year and you can get practically anyone back in return.

[Pirates4Life]

That is a very good article.

Hopefully Upton owners heed the advice and sell while they can...especially in keeper leagues where you might get stuck with a .260 hitter next year and you can get practically anyone back in return.

So let me get this straight.

I'm supposed to put a lot of weight in "career" minor league numbers of a kid who was a 19 year old that batted .327 in AA and followed that up as a 20 and 21 year old who succeeded in AAA a few years before most prospects even make it there? Forgive me, but I hardly think that a kid who just recently became a legal drinker has reached his peak as far as his baseball skills are concerned.

He never hit more than 18 HRs in a minor league season? OH MY!!! Did the author of the article notice that he was a 20 year old in AAA when he did it, and those HRs (in 545 ABs, mind you) were accompanied by 44 SBs and a .303 BA? Hmmmmm, I wonder if power is one of those things that develops as a player gets older.

And I'm supposed to forget the fact that he's a 22 year old getting his first extended look at major league pitching, playing every day, batting 3rd in an improving lineup, and was one of the most highly regarded prospects to come up in the last few years?

And I'm supposed to disregard the large improvement he's made in pitch recognition and both his walk and strikeout rates over the past few months? LOL, you can look at the improvement he made in that area in my last post.

Yes, a few of his rates will normalize, but improving in other areas can very easily keep him performing at a high level, and he's got a lot of room and time for improvement. He's been on the radar for so long that people forget how young he is. If he bats .300 or .310 instead of .340, so what? The kid's got a TON of talent, and he's only just starting to show it.