SignGuy wrote:What are some people's views on Ben Sheets? From looking at these rankings he is falling out of the top 20. He could bring tremendous value next year IMO.
From the looks of these lists id have Smoltz and Sheets as my top two guys at pretty good value. thats where i go for my SP;s. guys who could anchor your staff who are looked down upon by other players.
I gave up on Sheets in 2007. Staying healthy is a skill and Sheets clearly does not have it. He'll probably be healthy for the first time since his breakout season but personally I have suffered through way more than I should have to take a chance on him again.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
I think Sheets is a nice risk/reward target, but the risk is substantial. He is maddeningly frustrating, coming up with just weird injuries. However, he is the type of guy who has the upside to be a top 5 starter, so he's still worth it. His control is historically good.
Then again, you could just wait and try to grab Mark Prior 15 rounds later. He's a worse risk to stay healthy, but his upside is great too, and he'll obviously come at much more of a discount. I don't think Sheets will be discounted enough this year for him to be worth the risk.
I'm not that worried about Sheets from a health standpoint. 2005 and 2006 were one single injury and then in 2007 he hurt his finger which is just a typical pitcher injury. I'm less worried about his health this season than I was last season that is for sure, last seasons finger injury doesn't scream 'lacks staying healthy skill'.
I do worry that his peripherals slipped last year though, so I'm going to temper expectations on that side of things.
by Pedros Little Friend » Thu Dec 20, 2007 3:02 am
yea, it's tough to know how much of his skill fall off in k and bb/9, is attributable to his injury last year. he's definately a guy that's fooled me once...but if he falls far enough, i'll likely bite again and then feel (and likely be) stupid for doing it. its just too tempting; if he manages to pitcher 200 innings, he's got cy young/fantasy ace potential.
I won't even consider Sheets unless I already have three pitchers drafted. He's too much of a risk and like Yoda said earlier, I've also been burned too many times to do it again. Right now I have him ranked in a 5th tier with the likes of Pedro and AJ Burnett. Guys who can really make an impact on your team IF they are healthy.
Upfront I want to say that I have always been a big Ben Sheets fan. I think he could be a fantastic pitcher. However, I think it's too late for him. The K/9 and BB/9 increase last year could be because of injury last year, but I think it was due to the accumulation of injuries in several years. I feel that once again he will be DL bound once or twice this year at least and will continue to dissapoint. Sorry, Ben. It's over.
P.S. I may have anti-jinxed him now and he goes out and wins 20 games and the Cy Young in 08.
I was working on some positional top 20s (and 50s for SPs/OFs) for a different site and saw the thread here, and thought I'd share my top 20: feel free to agree or disagree as you like....
1. Santana, Johan - MIN 2. Peavy, Jake - SD 3. Haren, Dan - ARI 4. Hamels, Cole - PHI 5. Sabathia, C.C. - CLE 6. Bedard, Erik - BAL 7. Beckett, Josh - BOS 8. Kazmir, Scott - TB 9. Webb, Brandon - ARI 10. Oswalt, Roy - HOU 11. Hernandez, Felix - SEA 12. Zambrano, Carlos - CHC 13. Young, Chris - SD 14. Escobar, Kelvim - LAA 15. Hallady, Roy - TOR 16. Smoltz, John - ATL 17. Harang, Aaron - CIN 18. Carmona, Fausto - CLE 19. Lackey, John - LAA 20. Lincecum, Tim - SF
Just a couple thoughts on where my list and others' differ: A. I think Haren is in for a monster season in ARI...the AL-NL switch should be good to him, even though part of (D.) will apply here. B. I have C. Young rated outside the top ten because I have serious concerns about his ability to stay healthy. C. Same for King Felix. D. Zambrano is just too volatile for me to trust, and since a few of a SP's fantasy-relevant stats are reliant on the 'pen, I have very little faith in the state of the Cubs' relief pitching. Or maybe it's from watching too many Reds broadcasts, I don't know.
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by EvSolo » Tue Dec 18, 2007 9:08 pm 
