Top Ten SP for 2008 - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Top Ten SP for 2008

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Top Ten SP for 2008

Postby Yoda » Tue Dec 18, 2007 4:20 pm

Pedros Little Friend wrote:
Yoda wrote:Maybe people are high on Kazmir because he is so dominant? He led the league in Ks as a 24 yo and has a craeer ERA around 3.50 despite pitching against Sox, NYY more than most pitchers. Not to mention he pitches on a horrible team. He is a top 5 pitcher without a doubt. Not including him on top 10 going into 08 is a complete joke.


i almost always stray from defense around here, especially when it comes to rankings because they're as subjective as it gets, but i'll draw another subjective line right now. "a complete joke" not ranking a relatively inconsistent 24 year old in the top 10 for next year? perhaps you just woke up on the wrong side of the bed, but your sarcasm doesn't quite seem warranted (and that's coming from a lover of the craft to be sure). john smoltz could be in the top 5 next year; it's a game of prediction. i'm sure glad we don't all agree on these things, otherwise i wouldn't love the cafe like i do, but there's no reason to be outright rude, especially over a disagreement of such trivial magnitude. if i called every ranking here (or even just those on this thread) that was only a few spots off from where i have them a complete joke i'd be tied up for weeks. i had kazmir 12th and conceded that he's got upside for the top 5... you think he should be there now, fine, but that's as high as i can justify putting him because i'm skeptical he'll put it all together when his walk rate actually went up last year and he's battled injuries every year in the bigs. also, his babip has always been well above league average so i don't see .341 as too much of an outlier so as to think his numbers will be much different next year because of an adjustment to that variable. also, in response to ender, he's been a second half pitcher in each of his MLB seasons. i refuse to project his second half numbers to next year. if i had done that last year, i would have dreadfully overdrafted him. additionally, someone mentioned he's on a horrible team - doesn't this help prove there's a lot of uncertainty around him? it's their defense that's especailly bad. the rays are improving, sure, but he's not gonna rack up a ton wins in that division either. and while the stats he puts up against the yanks and sox are certainly admirable, he still has to play them 38 times a year so just noting that he's played well against them previously doesn't detract from the fact they're tough lineups to face constantly.

kaz is obviously plus for fantasy in k's and in era too, he's average in wins, and below average in whip (though that all depends on you league size and configuration). i know that his whip could go way down at any time, especially because he's a young stud, but i don't see it as extremely likely for 08.

it's funny, i don't want to bash him at all - i love his upside. i'm in a keeper where i would love to get my hands on him if he's not protected. and in the heat of the moment in a march draft, would i take him over c young, haren, or dicek? quite possibly, but as a preliminary ranking, i don't quite see his upside outweighing his risk more so than for other players i have above him. i certainly wouldn't qualify my ranking as a complete joke that he's not in the top 10, especially because he's 12th...

i think it's helpful to know what people are thinking and it's great to get constructive criticism, but it sucks to be subject to rude responses for so trivial a reason. okay, defense over - phew, maybe i was the one that woke up on the wrong side of the bed...oh well. if nothing else, that helped clarify for me that i love scott kazmir, perhaps just not quite as much as many others do - and that knowledge will be useful come draft day. thanks.


He was freaking 23 yo for god's sake and he was more dominant than ANYONE ELSE IN THE LEAGUE. Most 23 yo's are still pitching at AAA hoping to get a shot at being in the MLB.

And yes, it is my opinion that leaving Kazmir out of top 10 in favor of Chris Young and Franciso Freaking Liriano is a complete joke. Please don't take it personally. :-D
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Re: Top Ten SP for 2008

Postby Yoda » Tue Dec 18, 2007 4:27 pm

Giambis wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Pedros Little Friend wrote:i'm interested in kazmir. a lot of people have him high but i don't see it quite yet. sure, he's got the upside to be in the top 5, even this year, but his walk rate is still way too high and didn't improve last year. he plays in a tough division on a team with mediocre defense, and that might be generous. on top of all that, he hasn't stayed healthy for a full year yet, granted, he is young. i still love him long term but till he shows more, if i take him, i'll be expecting a pretty high whip which keeps him out of my top 10 (for 2008 at least):

peavy
santana
bedard
webb
beckett
cc
hamels
c young
haren
liriano (this is a comprimise - depending on health, he's way higher)

followed by matsuzaka, kazmir, lackey, verlander, smoltz, oswalt, z, gallardo, felix, harang


Maybe people are high on Kazmir because he is so dominant? He led the league in Ks as a 24 yo and has a craeer ERA around 3.50 despite pitching against Sox, NYY more than most pitchers. Not to mention he pitches on a horrible team. He is a top 5 pitcher without a doubt. Not including him on top 10 going into 08 is a complete joke.


Top 5 pitcher without a doubt? We've got Santana, Peavy, Sabathia, Webb, and Bedard who are also pretty good. Can even throw in Beckett, Hamels, Chris Young. I like Kazmir, but to say top 5 without a doubt of course overstates the case for a pitcher who's lowest career BB/9 is 3.24 and who's LOWEST whip is 1.27. I like him as a possible breakout, and I agree that he could be disgusting for another team, but he does pitch for the Drays and will be limited by that in wins. This is fantasy baseball, not real baseball. He'll be potentially dominant in 2 of the 4 pitching categories. There's nothing to suggest he will be above average in whip or wins. For my money, that's not top 5.


Of the pitchers you mentioned none of those guys accomplished what Kaz has up to age 23.

Santana, Peavy and Hamels all broke out at that age and you can argue the same for Kazmir since his second half was so utterly dominant. So in my mind, there is no doubt that Kaz is top 5 going into 08. With a little improvement, he can post top 5 numbers overall.

Also, one thing that I do not care about is what team a pitcher is on. I only care about the guy's skills and how he has progressed in his career.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Re: Top Ten SP for 2008

Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Dec 18, 2007 4:48 pm

Yoda wrote:Also, one thing that I do not care about is what team a pitcher is on. I only care about the guy's skills and how he has progressed in his career.


Team can have an affect on pretty much every category but k's though. Playing for a bad offensive team can kill your win totals. For example, Nolan Ryan's 1987 season featured an 8-16 record with an era+ of 142. Playing for a team with a bad defense can hurt your whip and era a bit though again, the effect is mitigated here by Kazmir's lower number of outs in play. And having a bad bullpen can hurt you in lost wins and in getting asked to go deeper than you should into games.

All that said, the Tampa Bay organization is getting better so Kazmir has done what he's done for a worse team than he'll have backing him next year. That and normal development would point toward improvement in 2008.
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Re: Top Ten SP for 2008

Postby Yoda » Tue Dec 18, 2007 4:59 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
Yoda wrote:Also, one thing that I do not care about is what team a pitcher is on. I only care about the guy's skills and how he has progressed in his career.


Team can have an affect on pretty much every category but k's though. Playing for a bad offensive team can kill your win totals. For example, Nolan Ryan's 1987 season featured an 8-16 record with an era+ of 142. Playing for a team with a bad defense can hurt your whip and era a bit though again, the effect is mitigated here by Kazmir's lower number of outs in play. And having a bad bullpen can hurt you in lost wins and in getting asked to go deeper than you should into games.

All that said, the Tampa Bay organization is getting better so Kazmir has done what he's done for a worse team than he'll have backing him next year. That and normal development would point toward improvement in 2008.


Just because a great pitcher is on a bad team, I don't downgrade him since Ws are so random that I completely disregard the category from my rankings.

Plus the Rays can't possibly be any worse going forward so any improvement on defense/bullpen/offense should bump Kaz's value.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Re: Top Ten SP for 2008

Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Dec 18, 2007 5:19 pm

Yoda wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
Yoda wrote:Also, one thing that I do not care about is what team a pitcher is on. I only care about the guy's skills and how he has progressed in his career.


Team can have an affect on pretty much every category but k's though. Playing for a bad offensive team can kill your win totals. For example, Nolan Ryan's 1987 season featured an 8-16 record with an era+ of 142. Playing for a team with a bad defense can hurt your whip and era a bit though again, the effect is mitigated here by Kazmir's lower number of outs in play. And having a bad bullpen can hurt you in lost wins and in getting asked to go deeper than you should into games.

All that said, the Tampa Bay organization is getting better so Kazmir has done what he's done for a worse team than he'll have backing him next year. That and normal development would point toward improvement in 2008.


Just because a great pitcher is on a bad team, I don't downgrade him since Ws are so random that I completely disregard the category from my rankings.

Plus the Rays can't possibly be any worse going forward so any improvement on defense/bullpen/offense should bump Kaz's value.


I'm agreeing with your last statement there in that the Rays should actually improve across the board and therefore Kazmir's value gets a boost. I just don't think you can disregard team unless the team is essentially the same. In Kazmir's case you could get away with disregarding the team or even giving him a tiny boost because the team is getting better. Let's say Wang was moved to the Rays at the start of the 2007 season. You can't tell me you wouldn't downgrade him based on the defense, bullpen issues, and offensive support. Wang on the Yankees is clearly more valuable than Wang on the Rays. While you may not feel comfortable measuring how much more valuable you have to at least acknowledge that a move like that would make quite a big difference in value.
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Re: Top Ten SP for 2008

Postby Giambis » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:05 pm

Well, Loveable has said it when it comes to assessing what team a guy plays on. While focusing on pitching independent stats is a great way to pick up breakout players, is is one piece of the larger puzzle, i.e. what overall value a pitcher can provide for fantasy purposes next year. For the purposes of fantasy, I personally think ignoring the team a pitcher pithces on ignores one integral composite that affects his overall numbers. I'm not saying its a huge one, but its certainly relevant.

And, as you said "with a little improvement, he can post top 5 numbers overall." I don't disagree with this statement, but I always create draft boards for value, and to me, I would rather grab a guy like Webb, Sabathia, or Bedard who don't need to improve to post top 5 numbers. Maybe Kazmir's upside is a little higher, but I'm a wuss when it comes to risk when talking about my #1 starter, and I think his risk is also much higher.

Just my opinion though, and I'll get Kazmir if I can next year.
Giambis
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 483
Joined: 26 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Top Ten SP for 2008

Postby Ender » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:09 pm

Top 5 pitchers are never a good risk anyway~ Value based depth in the mid rounds, not aces is the way to go... then again that is probably a post for another topic!
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Top Ten SP for 2008

Postby Giambis » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:15 pm

Ender wrote:Top 5 pitchers are never a good risk anyway~ Value based depth in the mid rounds, not aces is the way to go... then again that is probably a post for another topic!


Touche. None of these guys will probably be around when I look to draft my #1 guy anyway. But, it's worth the discussion, in case everyone drafts hitter heavy and a lot of them slip.
Giambis
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 483
Joined: 26 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Top Ten SP for 2008

Postby Yoda » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:21 pm

Ender wrote:Top 5 pitchers are never a good risk anyway~ Value based depth in the mid rounds, not aces is the way to go... then again that is probably a post for another topic!


Not necessarily. I've always targeted an anchor for my team and I will for 08 as well. I believe in balance when it comes to building a team. Plus by the way it looks now Kazmir will fall enough for even people like you, Ender, who don't take pitchers for the first 10 rounds. :-D
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Re: Top Ten SP for 2008

Postby SignGuy » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:25 pm

What are some people's views on Ben Sheets? From looking at these rankings he is falling out of the top 20. He could bring tremendous value next year IMO.
SignGuy
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 609
Joined: 14 Feb 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: twistedude and 13 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Thursday, Jul. 31
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Chi White Sox at Detroit
(1:08 pm)
Colorado at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
St. Louis at San Diego
(3:40 pm)
Philadelphia at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Seattle at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
LA Angels at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Cincinnati at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Toronto at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Pittsburgh at Arizona
(9:40 pm)
Atlanta at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact