Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting?

Postby jfg » Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:41 pm

I hope that last post was sarcastic since it was explained why it's not really 5x5 in many posts earlier....

It is skewed but I don't think there is anyway around it. There aren't many other categories you can add for pitching without making a stat essentially worth double, or adding categories that benefit middle of the road pitchers like IP. The only category that might be able to add a little balance is quality starts which helps out the top tier pitchers. I'm thinking of bringing up adding this category to my league.
Image
jfg
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicGolden Eagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 6078
(Past Year: 85)
Joined: 4 Nov 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting?

Postby Rounders » Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:48 pm

CoffeeEater wrote:Not skewed at all.

5 stats for hitting vs. 5 stats for pitching.

5 = 5, numbskulls.


Yes, but you have to get 2 different types of pitchers to cover all 5 categories. SP helps you in 4 categories, and I understand that there are very few batters that will contribute significantly in all 5 categories. That being said, most power hitters still chip in a some steals, and most speed guys will chip in a few HRs, whereas SP won't chip in any saves. Closers are usually valued a little more than what they contribute just because there aren't very many of them, and even fewer of them are good.
But despite SP helping in the same amount of categories (or more) as most hitters, I still believe there is so many talented SPs that drop really low, SPs on the free agency that get hot, marginal SPs on free agency that you can pitch against teams like KC on the road, and large amounts of inconsistency in even the elite SPs, that I'll take my chances in rounds 1-8 (or more) with hitters (unless someone drops to where I believe I'm getting a really good value).
Rounders
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 898
Joined: 18 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting?

Postby Niffoc4 » Tue Jul 31, 2007 4:03 pm

CoffeeEater wrote:Not skewed at all.

5 stats for hitting vs. 5 stats for pitching.

5 = 5, numbskulls.

I hope you're kidding... Alex Rodriguez helps in 5 categories... Johan Santana can only help in 4... Though I think the biggest thing that draws experienced players to draft hitters before pitchers is the consistency. Hitters just tend to be more consistent... sure you can show me plenty of examples of high hitting draft picks faltering, and for this season you probably can't point out as many high draft pick pitchers that faltered, but how many high draft pick pitchers are there?
Niffoc4
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1700
(Past Year: 9)
Joined: 26 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting?

Postby Rounders » Tue Jul 31, 2007 4:06 pm

Niffoc4 wrote:
CoffeeEater wrote:Not skewed at all.

5 stats for hitting vs. 5 stats for pitching.

5 = 5, numbskulls.

Though I think the biggest thing that draws experienced players to draft hitters before pitchers is the consistency. Hitters just tend to be more consistent... sure you can show me plenty of examples of high hitting draft picks faltering, and for this season you probably can't point out as many high draft pick pitchers that faltered, but how many high draft pick pitchers are there?


Exactly - the percentage of high drafted pitchers that don't work out is much higher than the percentage of high drafted hitters that don't work out.
Rounders
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 898
Joined: 18 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting?

Postby Silent Master » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:20 pm

As a freak about this sort of thinking , as a test I drafted a team without pitching until the end of the draft. First 15 picks were hitters. - Understand this is a preseason draft. I think I may still have 1 pitcher I drafted and everyone else from WW through season and traded some no-names for a closer.

1. (1) Álex Rodríguez 3B
2. (20) Jimmy Rollins SS
3. (21) Carlos Lee OF
4. (40) Andruw Jones OF
5. (41) Aramis Ramírez 3B
6. (60) Paul Konerko 1B
7. (61) Brian Roberts 2B
8. (80) Michael Cuddyer 1B,OF
9. (81) Robinson Canó 2B
10. (100) Torii Hunter OF
11. (101) Richie Sexson 1B
12. (120) Raúl Ibañez OF
13. (121) Ian Kinsler 2B
14. (140) Eric Byrnes OF
15. (141) Tadahito Iguchi 2B
16. (160) José Valverde RP
17. (161) Iván Rodríguez C,1B
18. (180) David Weathers RP
19. (181) Nate Robertson SP
20. (200) Joe Borowski RP
21. (201) Chuck James SP,RP
22. (220) Kenny Rogers SP
23. (221) Freddy García SP
24. (240) Ty Wigginton 1B,2B,3B,OF

Here is my Roster Today
Mike Piazza
Paul Konerko
Brian Roberts
Alex Rodríguez
Jimmy Rollins
Aramis Ramírez
J.J. Hardy
Carlos Lee
Curtis Granderson
Eric Byrnes
Torii Hunter
Ryan Braun

Justin Germano
Yovani Gallardo
Francisco Rodríguez
José Valverde
Kevin Gregg
Kelvim Escobar
Fausto Carmona
Ted Lilly
Jeremy Guthrie
Dave Bush
James Shields
Orlando Hernández

And the standings for our 5x5 H2H (my team out front) All but one is an active player. 21 Game Lead.
1. Madman's Crazed Dogs 102-49-9 .666
2. GSEX 81-70-9 .534
3. murphs losers 74-72-14 .506
4. azoklndasfn 75-74-11 .503
5. Boss Ballers 77-76-7 .503
6. Arizona Diamondbacks 76-77-7 .497
7. West Coast Ballers 70-79-11 .472
8. Redwood Renegades 67-81-12 .456
9. Cleveland Indians 68-87-5 .441
10. KillerBees 64-89-7 .422


I will test this the opposite way next year and see if I can draft all pitchers first and then win. I think it is better to draft hitters first, however it is more important to stay involved and on top of what is on the WW.
Silent Master
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 57
Joined: 30 May 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting?

Postby dooz » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:39 pm

It depends on the depth of the league. If its 10 teams or less, you can definitely go hitting early and often and not be punished. If its a deeper league, quality pitching becomes harder to come across and it needs to be taken a little more seriously.
dooz
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1529
(Past Year: 9)
Joined: 4 May 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Above the Crowds, Above the Clouds

Re: Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting?

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:59 am

dooz wrote:It depends on the depth of the league. If its 10 teams or less, you can definitely go hitting early and often and not be punished. If its a deeper league, quality pitching becomes harder to come across and it needs to be taken a little more seriously.


I completely agree.. In a really deep league (or an AL/NL Only) a lot of the high-upside late round guys will be taken in the draft, so you have to try to go out and get an SP or 2....
buffalobillsrul2002
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1349
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 17 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting?

Postby Niffoc4 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Sure you have to know more in a deep league, but you still don't really need to go with pitching that much earlier. I am in a 20-team league w/ 10 keepers and 2 rookies kept by each team every year, and this year I drafted Billingsley and Gorzelanny, and got Carmona on the WW. Last year I drafted Chris Young (SD)... and some other guys that helped me lead the league in pitching. The year before I got Chris Capuano and Erik Bedard on the WW. Pitching is there in ANY league, much more so than you can get an early round quality hitter.
Niffoc4
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1700
(Past Year: 9)
Joined: 26 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Are 5x5 league skewed toward hitting?

Postby great gretzky » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:09 pm

I think it is in the draft, and for very good reason. In theory, if you had a consistent pitcher and a consistent hitter situation, it would be more evenly distributed. I mena yea, the best pitchers only help in four cats. But in reality, a lot of the "five category studs" really aren't studs in every cat anyway. People who get credited with being "5 cat" like beltran and sizemore really aren't, as their BA is neutral a lot of times, relative to other players. Howard and Pujols went in the first round this year, and they are four cat for all intents and purposes.

One could argue that five by five is skewed towards hitting, but if you have that transcendent pitching arm, you probably have an incredibly good chance of winning. There are less innings pitched total for your team that ABs, so a pitcher can disproportionately affect 40 percent of your roto score, whereas one singular hitter can't move the numbers in quite the same way.

However, hitters are both more easily predicted, and needed in the aggregate, so you really have to take them early, with a few exceptions. Pitchers aren't as easy to predict, and they get hurt more, so the ROI isn't as good.

That being said, if you have someone like Santana, or a season like Pedro's massive season, that one pitcher, and solid if unspectacular other pitchers can totally rout. So if you strike gold with your pitcher, the case could be made that it almost favors pitching, because you can crush 40 percent of your scoring with much less investment that you could with trying to corner 40 percent of the hitting stats with one pick.

I think its fine as it is really. It's skewed both ways in some respects, and it depends where you want to go. It's not like football where if you buck the RB trend, you need a lot of things to break for you. You do have the shot at building a staff that rules if too many people follow the hitting lead, and in reality either approach still mandates addressing the 5th stat (saves or steals).

I think conventional wisdom is wise as it is, but the conventional draft wisdom doesn't mean that its "skewed" its a risk/reward and ROI type of issue. But I think the rules adequately address both parts.
great gretzky
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 3769
Joined: 3 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Washington, DC

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: scarnicease and 10 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Tuesday, Sep. 2
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Cincinnati at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Detroit at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
Boston at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Philadelphia at Atlanta
(7:10 pm)
NY Mets at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Toronto at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Milwaukee at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
Chi White Sox at Minnesota
(8:10 pm)
Texas at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
LA Angels at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
(8:15 pm)
San Francisco at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
Seattle at Oakland
(10:05 pm)
Washington at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)
Arizona at San Diego
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact