I am shocked - SHOCKED I SAY!!!
- that posing this question on a fantasy baseball board would elicit pro-baseball replies.
A feather just wafted into my office on a gentle breeze. Plum knocked me over, it did.
Real answer? There is luck in all fantasy sports. There is more room for luck in "standard" fantasy football simply because there are typically less player/positions. With the smaller player pool comes greater emphasis per player. It's as simple as that. IDP leagues that have owners draft and manage individual defensive players have less of a luck factor and more closely mirror fantasy baseball because of this.
Real-life luck stories, in both sports:
It's 2006. I have the best team, hands down, in my money league in football. I lose in the first round of the playoffs - out of the money - because seven of my nine starters had a bad week. That's bad luck.
Still in 2006. I have a decent team in my money baseball league. Another guy in my league has THE BEST team, hands down. I beat him in the finals because he scores - in the Finals, mind you - HALF the points he usually scored throughout the season. That's good luck.
I should have won my football league and I should not have won my baseball league. It worked exactly the opposite.
That's not skill, that's luck.