stumpak wrote:I agree--I make this point in rergard to guys like Derrick Lee all the time. People get all ga-ga because he COULD hit 5-10 more HRs and a few more RBI now that he is playing at Wrigley, but in terms of total value, I believe this will be completely off-set by the fact that he will steel 10 fewer bases than last year, meaning that in terms of overall value, he could actually be worth less or at best the same this season, even if fulfills the HR potential that people project him having.
Agreed. He's have to hit many more HR's to offset the lose in SB's if that drop does incur, which I have little doubt it will; however, a rise in average could offset the loss in SB's. In fact, I have him going down to 11 SB's but his average up to .288 with a few more RBI's and HR's, which puts him squarely at the $28 value he was last season. Still good, but not worth the hype the move is getting.