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will Tim Lincecum be shut down early?

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Re: will Tim Lincecum be shut down early?

Postby OnceinDC2\1 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:39 pm

wildbill wrote:
stevekahuda wrote:Well, there's no proof that limiting innings keeps a pitcher healthier. If you look at the Braves staffs from the early nineties, they had their pitchers throwing at full strength every other day. Not a full games worth of tosses or anything, but significant work. And those guys pitched a lot of innings. I know Smoltz had an arm injury later in his career, but he was pretty old by then. Matsuzaka and Livan Hernandez have also thrown an enormous number of innings with no ill effects. Since Linc doesn't follow a lot of traditions (no ice, no advice on mechanics allowed) and has pitched a large number of innings in his past I don't see why they would shut him down. They seem to listen to his opinion about his training regiment and habits. That being said, baseball people don't tend to follow tradition even when there is no scientific proof.
You can't compare apples and oranges. The Braves pitchers of that era had logged hundreds of innings over multiple seasons in the minor leagues. Lincecum has logged 31 innings in the minor leagues. So that's a pointless comparison, like I said, apples and oranges.

You said, "Since Linc....has pitched a large number of innings in his past." Perhaps you should look at his statistics before making wild claims because you are dead wrong. He's never had a season, including college, where he pitched a major league level of innings.

As for Matsuzaka, I'm pretty sure I read that in Japan he was used to pitching only once every calander week instead of every 5 days, so he could go longer in a single outing. Regardless I seriously doubt you bothered to check his numbers since you didn't check Lincecum's numbers so I'm not going to bother either. Hernandez also had a few hundred innings logged int he minors over a couple seasons.


OnceinDC2\1 wrote:Lincecum has done what has worked for him and shown no ill effects through his career, maybe he does hurt himself at some point, though if he hasn't hurt himself with that unorthodox delivery yet, it
doesn't make a whole lot of sense that he suddenly would. He's used to throwing a lot so why not just let the kid get the experience of facing as much MLB hitting as possible? Not out of the question he gets shutdown, but we aren't talking about someone who was coddled to the MLB on 100-pitch restricts all the way up.
Um, what career? His carreer consists of what 31 IP in the minors this year and 31.2 last year and what? 2+ months in the majors. Not exactly what I would call a significant sample size. You're talking like Lincecum has a long and storied minor league track record of IP. He doesn't. AS for the experience arguement, what more experience does he need? He's already gone through his adjustment period.

The Giants have nothing to gain and everything to loose if they let him throw more innings then he's thrown before. Now maybe instead of limiting starts they could simply pull him earlier in games at some point. Or they could do what the Tigers did with Verlander last year. It's definitly in the teams best interests to play it safe rather then risk the future.


Lincecum had a collegiate career is the point where he wasn't kept on any organizational pitching regimen. Most of the high school pitchers drafted come up through the low minors on EXTREMELY strict restrictions. Please look into this stuff before dismissing arguments. Thanks.
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Re: will Tim Lincecum be shut down early?

Postby talan37 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:44 pm

I definitely remember reading a report about IP for young pitchers. The report basically said that pitchers making a huge jump in IP from year to year had a significantly higher statistical chance of suffering arm troubles the next year. I believe the optimum pitches increase was about 40 innings a year.

Of course there are physical anomylies in both directions, but as I recall the research data was fairly conclusive. I will take a look and see if I can find it. As the article pointed out hes on pace for about 190, which while a noticeable jump up from 157, isn't a gigantic step up, so I would say odds are he will probably not get shut down unless for some reason he starts to go way above that, or has any soreness/strains on his arm.
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Re: will Tim Lincecum be shut down early?

Postby OnceinDC2\1 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:50 pm

I guess my point is the guy has NEVER had any arm trouble at any level, even with his slight build and unorthodox mechanics.
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Re: will Tim Lincecum be shut down early?

Postby Tigers2006 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 2:00 pm

After not limiting his IP all year thus far, SF will shut him down for the last 2 weeks of the season.
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Re: will Tim Lincecum be shut down early?

Postby wildbill » Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:58 pm

OnceinDC2\1 wrote:Lincecum had a collegiate career is the point where he wasn't kept on any organizational pitching regimen. Most of the high school pitchers drafted come up through the low minors on EXTREMELY strict restrictions. Please look into this stuff before dismissing arguments. Thanks.
I did look it up but apparently you did NOT. Right now he's just about at the most IP he's pitched in any season in college. Last year he threw about 32 more innings after in A ball and that was it. So he's less then 40 innings from the most he's ever thrown at any level PRo, college, little league. You should really check your facts before telling me to check mine, which I'd already done. BTW a lot of pitchers come from college to imply otherwise is silly.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ecum.shtml
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Re: will Tim Lincecum be shut down early?

Postby OnceinDC2\1 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:11 pm

wildbill wrote:
OnceinDC2\1 wrote:Lincecum had a collegiate career is the point where he wasn't kept on any organizational pitching regimen. Most of the high school pitchers drafted come up through the low minors on EXTREMELY strict restrictions. Please look into this stuff before dismissing arguments. Thanks.
I did look it up but apparently you did NOT. Right now he's just about at the most IP he's pitched in any season in college. Last year he threw about 32 more innings after in A ball and that was it. So he's less then 40 innings from the most he's ever thrown at any level PRo, college, little league. You should really check your facts before telling me to check mine, which I'd already done. BTW a lot of pitchers come from college to imply otherwise is silly.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ecum.shtml


look, you can act like a smartass which is all well and good but think about this. What does that mean exactly? If most pitchers go up by 30-40 innings a year? THAT WOULD PUT HIM WELL INTO SEPTEMBER IF NOT THE END OF IT. Jesus Christ....did you read the earlier posts. I'm Done.
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Postby Bwanna » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:39 pm

Wow. Something about that Lincecum kid really brings out the inner beast. We've already had one thread locked down today because folks can't seem to avoid the personal insults, looks like another one is about to bite the dust.

If you've got a beef with someone's opinion, how about you shoot them a PM? I really don't want to witness any more catfights or have otherwise helpful threads locked down.
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Re:

Postby wildbill » Thu Jul 26, 2007 6:34 pm

Bwanna wrote:Wow. Something about that Lincecum kid really brings out the inner beast. We've already had one thread locked down today because folks can't seem to avoid the personal insults, looks like another one is about to bite the dust.

If you've got a beef with someone's opinion, how about you shoot them a PM? I really don't want to witness any more catfights or have otherwise helpful threads locked down.]
It doesn't bother me, I don't have a thin glass shell so personal insults like "smarta$$" don't bother me. Honestly, I laugh at them. The guy's obviously upset because 1) the facts don't support him and 2) he's probably a Lincecum owner and doesn't want to hear it. He doesn't like that the facts don't agree with his statements so he calls me a smarta$$ for posting them and then he makes baseless claims of his own while providing no facts whatsoever. Attacking opinions and attacking a person are 2 entirely different things. I'll go after an opinion when it's just plain wrong as in this case. Even though they shouldn't some people like this guy take it too personally when their opinions get shot full of holes. As a result they resort to personal attacks because they have nothing else to fall back on. It's not personal to me, I don't know the guy but his opinon in this case is crazy and not supported by facts.

I mean look at this statement:
OnceinDC2\1 wrote:If most pitchers go up by 30-40 innings a year?
How crazy is that? Most pitchers do not go up in IP a year at that rate, if they did Clemens would probably be around 1,000 IP a year right now. If you take a rather young pitcher like Lincecum and boost his IP buy 80 to 90 over just 2 years then you're asking for trouble down the road. Recent history has a number of young pitchers that broke down or suffered stunted growth when pushed too hard. I'm not saying its a given Lincecum would join them if they continue down this road. What I am saying is the Giants would be fools to take the risk. To deny the risk exists, whether big or small, is borderline absurd.

The other thing to remember about last year is I'm sure Lincecum had a break of a few weeks between the time he was drafted, signed and actually reported to the minor leagues to pitch. I might be wrong but I'd be surprised if that wasn't the case.
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Re: will Tim Lincecum be shut down early?

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:51 pm

this bickering is pointless.
the fact is that nobody know anything.

BTW what if he just goes 180 IP? So he'll only miss his last scheduled start.
Increased workload, no overuse, fantasy playoffs performance.
Everybody happy.
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Re: will Tim Lincecum be shut down early?

Postby sandman042 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:59 pm

thank you syfo-dyas. no one knows anything. the onley person who knows whats happenin w/ lincecum is bochy
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