will Tim Lincecum be shut down early?

[sixer03fan]

yo guys, im just curious.. do you think the giants are gonna shut down lincecum early this year since he's so young and they got really nothing to play for? He's been lights out for me but maybe I should look to sell high now if they're going to shut him down during the fantasy playoff period. Any thoughts or insight would be great. Thanks.

[wildbill]

They'd be stupid if they didn't shut him down at some point. There's not point in the team risking their future. My guess would be for it to happen somewhere around the middle of september at the latest.

[BillyHallDisciple]

That is fine if your fantasy playoffs end by mid-Sept., but I know that's not the case for everyone.

[Bwanna]

Not according to Bochy.

More info here...

[wildbill]

Not according to Bochy.

More info here...

Ok then there are 2 possibilities. 1) He's lying, which would be a first in the history of baseball if a team lied about future plans, or 2) He's stupid. I'll be laughing my a$$ off if they doesn't limit his innings and then he ends up meeting Tommy John next year. The Giants have no good reason for overworking young pitcher. Maybe Bochy has him on his fantasy team.

[stevekahuda]

Well, there's no proof that limiting innings keeps a pitcher healthier. If you look at the Braves staffs from the early nineties, they had their pitchers throwing at full strength every other day. Not a full games worth of tosses or anything, but significant work. And those guys pitched a lot of innings. I know Smoltz had an arm injury later in his career, but he was pretty old by then. Matsuzaka and Livan Hernandez have also thrown an enormous number of innings with no ill effects. Since Linc doesn't follow a lot of traditions (no ice, no advice on mechanics allowed) and has pitched a large number of innings in his past I don't see why they would shut him down. They seem to listen to his opinion about his training regiment and habits. That being said, baseball people don't tend to follow tradition even when there is no scientific proof.

[OnceinDC2\1]

Well, there's no proof that limiting innings keeps a pitcher healthier. If you look at the Braves staffs from the early nineties, they had their pitchers throwing at full strength every other day. Not a full games worth of tosses or anything, but significant work. And those guys pitched a lot of innings. I know Smoltz had an arm injury later in his career, but he was pretty old by then. Matsuzaka and Livan Hernandez have also thrown an enormous number of innings with no ill effects. Since Linc doesn't follow a lot of traditions (no ice, no advice on mechanics allowed) and has pitched a large number of innings in his past I don't see why they would shut him down. They seem to listen to his opinion about his training regiment and habits. That being said, baseball people don't tend to follow tradition even when there is no scientific proof.

I think steve makes a very good point. There has been a trend towards placing strict restrictions on pitchers, then when they throw 130 pitches they break down. It's not that they threw 130 pitches, it's that they aren't ACCUSTOMED to doing it, they don't have the conditioning. Arm injuries have skyrocketed in the last 30-40 years in the game. Pitchers physical conditioning as a whole is pretty terrible. One thing to note about the Braves of yore, their pitchers threw a LOT between starts on Mazzone's orders. Lincecum has done what has worked for him and shown no ill effects through his career, maybe he does hurt himself at some point, though if he hasn't hurt himself with that unorthodox delivery yet, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense that he suddenly would. He's used to throwing a lot so why not just let the kid get the experience of facing as much MLB hitting as possible? Not out of the question he gets shutdown, but we aren't talking about someone who was coddled to the MLB on 100-pitch restricts all the way up.

Has anyone noticed how similar lincecum and Oswalt are??? Oswalt throws two different curves and Seabiscuit only throws that big 12-6 hammer but look at the length of their strides...very long for pitchers who are under 6 feet tall.

[charliebrown2]

I dont see why Bochy would limit Lincecum's pitching. Obviously giants are going anywhere this season, but isnt this the perfect situation for lincecum? Still a rookie, still needs experience. What better position to be in than pressure-less starts? HIs objective is to throw more and gain more experiece...and we all see how he has improved since that month of hell....And obviously, if the innings pitch is starting to tire lincecum out, then no way will bouchy "force" lince to start. But if Lincecum's arm is throwing and healing fine, there's no reason to limit his experience.

[wildbill]

Well, there's no proof that limiting innings keeps a pitcher healthier. If you look at the Braves staffs from the early nineties, they had their pitchers throwing at full strength every other day. Not a full games worth of tosses or anything, but significant work. And those guys pitched a lot of innings. I know Smoltz had an arm injury later in his career, but he was pretty old by then. Matsuzaka and Livan Hernandez have also thrown an enormous number of innings with no ill effects. Since Linc doesn't follow a lot of traditions (no ice, no advice on mechanics allowed) and has pitched a large number of innings in his past I don't see why they would shut him down. They seem to listen to his opinion about his training regiment and habits. That being said, baseball people don't tend to follow tradition even when there is no scientific proof.

You can't compare apples and oranges. The Braves pitchers of that era had logged hundreds of innings over multiple seasons in the minor leagues. Lincecum has logged 31 innings in the minor leagues. So that's a pointless comparison, like I said, apples and oranges.

You said, "Since Linc....has pitched a large number of innings in his past." Perhaps you should look at his statistics before making wild claims because you are dead wrong. He's never had a season, including college, where he pitched a major league level of innings.

As for Matsuzaka, I'm pretty sure I read that in Japan he was used to pitching only once every calander week instead of every 5 days, so he could go longer in a single outing. Regardless I seriously doubt you bothered to check his numbers since you didn't check Lincecum's numbers so I'm not going to bother either. Hernandez also had a few hundred innings logged int he minors over a couple seasons.

Lincecum has done what has worked for him and shown no ill effects through his career, maybe he does hurt himself at some point, though if he hasn't hurt himself with that unorthodox delivery yet, it
doesn't make a whole lot of sense that he suddenly would. He's used to throwing a lot so why not just let the kid get the experience of facing as much MLB hitting as possible? Not out of the question he gets shutdown, but we aren't talking about someone who was coddled to the MLB on 100-pitch restricts all the way up.

Um, what career? His carreer consists of what 31 IP in the minors this year and 31.2 last year and what? 2+ months in the majors. Not exactly what I would call a significant sample size. You're talking like Lincecum has a long and storied minor league track record of IP. He doesn't. AS for the experience arguement, what more experience does he need? He's already gone through his adjustment period.

The Giants have nothing to gain and everything to loose if they let him throw more innings then he's thrown before. Now maybe instead of limiting starts they could simply pull him earlier in games at some point. Or they could do what the Tigers did with Verlander last year. It's definitly in the teams best interests to play it safe rather then risk the future.

[5]

FYI - the Tigers limited Verlander b/c

he had some minor issue with his arm/shoulder on occasion in the second half
and
they were playoff bound


I think the Giants should let him pitch but don't overdo it in September