Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:22 pm

Athrun340 wrote:Im not gonna go after him .. but if he falls into my lap then maybe

I dont want garret atkins on my team or the 07 first half ryan howard


Hilarious. Yeah, let's all just turn up our nose at the guy who's crushing the ball. Jeez, you people who think Braun is a carbon copy of Chris Shelton/J.J. Hardy are probably a little bit more annoying than those of us who want to have his baby. Some of you must have been burned by Garret Atkins or something and are still carrying around the scars.
BillyHallDisciple
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2850
Joined: 1 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby nbb23 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 12:12 am

I just found it quite amusing that the guy that is lukewarm on Braun and worried that he might turn into Atkins next year has a Ryan Braun sig :-b

I am lucky to have him in a keeper league and he will cost me a draft pick in the 20th round or so (not checked to make sure) so I am quite happy to be able to have a Top 5 3B IMO for next year!
nbb23
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 443
Joined: 5 Oct 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby cards05 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:37 am

Athrun340 wrote:Im not gonna go after him .. but if he falls into my lap then maybe

I dont want garret atkins on my team or the 07 first half ryan howard


GTWMA and others have distinguished Atkins. And the only thing wrong with Ryan Howard is that he got injured. You should evaluate decisions not results. Nobody can predict injuries (unless we're talking Prior/Harden). Even so, Howard looks just fine as a 2007 pick.

The point is, Braun's BAPIP will go down from .380 and he'll most certainly regress. But that doesn't change the fact that he has a lot of power and speed and has the skill set to hit .300. It's easy to get caught up in the next big thing and ignore objective reasoning. Us here at the cafe generally take advantage of that and trade a guy like Chad Gaudin for J. Vazquez. But this thread has revealed a less common inefficiency that can be exploited. It appears some experienced owners are failing to consider the fact that some of these young hitters are for real. I stated earlier that I'm waiting to see how his right-handed pitcher splits turn out, but if the stats support the results, there's no reason to pass on Braun in the second or third. And as GTWMA stated, the chance of a younger player exceeding projections is higher than the chance of a 33 year old exceeding expectations. When I saw this thread, I expected some sensationalism and thought folks would be projecting Braun as a top 5 pick. Now, if things go right, it appears Braun could be quite the value pick in the 3rd -5th round.
cards05
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 452
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby tinfoilxtouch » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:09 am

The people here comparing him to Pujols should be banned.

Pujols had the best 5-season start to a career of any baseball player. Ever. Like... out of all the major leaguers. Not just the ones that have been around since fantasy started.

Ryan Braun has about 20 HRs in 19 ABs. Good for him. I remember a guy named Chris Shelton who had a great start to his MLB career too. Sample size, people! I have no reason to doubt he'll grow into stud, but 1/3 a season also isn't any reason to count on it.
tinfoilxtouch
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1057
Joined: 24 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby Morneau33 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:39 am

tinfoilxtouch wrote:The people here comparing him to Pujols should be banned.

Pujols had the best 5-season start to a career of any baseball player. Ever. Like... out of all the major leaguers. Not just the ones that have been around since fantasy started.

Ryan Braun has about 20 HRs in 19 ABs. Good for him. I remember a guy named Chris Shelton who had a great start to his MLB career too. Sample size, people! I have no reason to doubt he'll grow into stud, but 1/3 a season also isn't any reason to count on it.


I would take him #1 with a stat line like that. :-D
Morneau33
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 142
Joined: 25 Jun 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby RynMan » Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:00 am

Coming from someone who drafted Braun as a minor leaguer in my dynasty league, and as extremely high on the guy....I see his '08 numbers and career path following David Wright's. 25-30 HR, .290 average, with 25 steals.
Image
RynMan
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerAward-Winning Graphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 8891
Joined: 4 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Oztailia

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby Yoda » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:24 am

tinfoilxtouch wrote:I remember a guy named Chris Shelton who had a great start to his MLB career too. Sample size, people! I have no reason to doubt he'll grow into stud, but 1/3 a season also isn't any reason to count on it.


People can compare Braun to every bust player out there but the fact of the matter is, he has way more talent than guys like Atkins and Shelton.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:41 am

cards05 wrote:
GTWMA and others have distinguished Atkins. And the only thing wrong with Ryan Howard is that he got injured. You should evaluate decisions not results. Nobody can predict injuries (unless we're talking Prior/Harden). Even so, Howard looks just fine as a 2007 pick.

The point is, Braun's BAPIP will go down from .380 and he'll most certainly regress. But that doesn't change the fact that he has a lot of power and speed and has the skill set to hit .300. It's easy to get caught up in the next big thing and ignore objective reasoning. Us here at the cafe generally take advantage of that and trade a guy like Chad Gaudin for J. Vazquez. But this thread has revealed a less common inefficiency that can be exploited. It appears some experienced owners are failing to consider the fact that some of these young hitters are for real. I stated earlier that I'm waiting to see how his right-handed pitcher splits turn out, but if the stats support the results, there's no reason to pass on Braun in the second or third. And as GTWMA stated, the chance of a younger player exceeding projections is higher than the chance of a 33 year old exceeding expectations. When I saw this thread, I expected some sensationalism and thought folks would be projecting Braun as a top 5 pick. Now, if things go right, it appears Braun could be quite the value pick in the 3rd -5th round.


And that's probably right where he should be based on an overall look at his performance in college, minors, and majors, so far. I agree with you on all these points, both the likely regression and the overall value.

Still lots of baseball and an off-season before thinking about drafting Braun, but I think there's little doubt that he has the track record to put up numbers similar to Wright, Cabrera, and ARam. Both he and Upton ought to be in the conversation next spring on who to pick at 3B after ARod. On a seasonal average basis right now, fwiw, Braun is the second highest ranked 3B and ranked 4th overall.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby Athrun340 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 11:14 am

nbb23 wrote:I just found it quite amusing that the guy that is lukewarm on Braun and worried that he might turn into Atkins next year has a Ryan Braun sig :-b

I am lucky to have him in a keeper league and he will cost me a draft pick in the 20th round or so (not checked to make sure) so I am quite happy to be able to have a Top 5 3B IMO for next year!

dont get me wrong .. i love braun but im just playing it safe . .. like i said if hes there in 3rd or 4th, Ill take him but not in 1st or 2nd

I rather draft a proven veteran player than Braun

my 2 cents
Image
^^Ty Smoovethug^^
Athrun340
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 642
Joined: 12 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby dryice » Sat Jul 28, 2007 11:43 am

my FORMER partner was in on this "track record" thing. needed something several years worth befor felt comfortable paying thru the nose at absolute peak value..or if not comfortable enuf would wait til the guy retired.

going to go down, go down in flames, not THAT way -drowning in a swamp of conservatism..if braun stays moderately hot thru the league's adjustment period where the whole league is studying ways to get his ars out...and adjusts to the adjustments...heck, that's good enuf for me..would draft him definitely before Aramus, and, as for the others, would make an attempt to swap off for him and pocket whatever the perceived difference is.
dryice
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 95
Joined: 12 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact