J35J wrote:I think most here know that he has a solid college and minor league track record..... with that said Braun isn't playing the same game as everyone else right now. He's not at the plate seeing a baseball, he's up there seeing a beach ball.....he'll go through some slumps and bad months more than likely. To just think he'll continue on with little to no problems next year and be a .310/30/100/100/20 player in his second year after very little time in the minors and half a major league season under his belt is more optimistic then I want to be, at least in the 2nd or 3rd round.
I'm not bashing Braun at all, the kid has a very good future, I'd just feel much better with him on my team as a 4th or 5th rounder!
Well, no player is as constantly good as they play during a hot streak, just as no player is as bad as they are during a slump. No one is expecting Braun to put up full season numbers that are 350/400/600 with 45 HRs and 25 SBs and about 130 R and RBIs, which is the full season extension of his current numbers. But, if he remains in the 3/4/5 slots for the Brewers, I think it is reasonable to expect 100 runs and RBIs with a .280 average and 20-30 SBs and RBIs.
PECOTA 2007 projected .282/.338/.500 with 23 HR and 19 SBs in 573 plate appearances. His 75th percentile projection is .301/.363/.550 with 26 HR and 22 SBs in 560 PAs. If anything, the 2008 projection will go up based on his age and performance in 2007.
And the thing about picking guys 24 or 25 without the track record, rather than the guys 34 or 35 with one, is that the probability of exceeding the projection is much greater with the younger guy and the probability of falling short of the projection is much greater with the older guy.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
Heh, I get to keep him as a final round selection, because I got him off the WW.
Yes, I was, uh... I was thinking about ordering the tape, the videotape... about the college girls and the... the wild... the wildness. They're going wild or something? Somebody told me... about going wild.
Legia13 wrote:If the time is right and he falls into my lap I'll take him. Definitely not before Arod,Miggy,Wright.
yea, I'd say he is the 4th best 3b for fantasy out there.
I'd still take Aramis.....He may well be 5th though.
I think that's fair...A-Rod, Miggy, Wright, Aramis, Braun, in that order. Does that make Braun a 3rd rounder? Depends on league size. I play in a 14er and 18er, obviously leading to guys being taken a little earlier (round-wise). That may lead to some of the discrepencies in opinions here.