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Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby daveblotto » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:14 pm

I have him as one of my keepers, even though I didn't draft him, I picked him up upon his call up and I will now get him in the 10th round!!
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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby markj11 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:25 pm

daveblotto wrote:I have him as one of my keepers, even though I didn't draft him, I picked him up upon his call up and I will now get him in the 10th round!!


Same here, rookies can be kept as 11th round selection which makes him the most valuable player in the league.
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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:49 pm

J35J wrote:I think most here know that he has a solid college and minor league track record..... with that said Braun isn't playing the same game as everyone else right now. He's not at the plate seeing a baseball, he's up there seeing a beach ball.....he'll go through some slumps and bad months more than likely. To just think he'll continue on with little to no problems next year and be a .310/30/100/100/20 player in his second year after very little time in the minors and half a major league season under his belt is more optimistic then I want to be, at least in the 2nd or 3rd round.

I'm not bashing Braun at all, the kid has a very good future, I'd just feel much better with him on my team as a 4th or 5th rounder! :-)


Well, no player is as constantly good as they play during a hot streak, just as no player is as bad as they are during a slump. No one is expecting Braun to put up full season numbers that are 350/400/600 with 45 HRs and 25 SBs and about 130 R and RBIs, which is the full season extension of his current numbers. But, if he remains in the 3/4/5 slots for the Brewers, I think it is reasonable to expect 100 runs and RBIs with a .280 average and 20-30 SBs and RBIs.

PECOTA 2007 projected .282/.338/.500 with 23 HR and 19 SBs in 573 plate appearances. His 75th percentile projection is .301/.363/.550 with 26 HR and 22 SBs in 560 PAs. If anything, the 2008 projection will go up based on his age and performance in 2007.

And the thing about picking guys 24 or 25 without the track record, rather than the guys 34 or 35 with one, is that the probability of exceeding the projection is much greater with the younger guy and the probability of falling short of the projection is much greater with the older guy.
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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby Bloody Sox » Thu Jul 26, 2007 2:23 pm

3-3 with a HR, 2 runs, 2 RBI, and a SB today... decent line so far today. B-)

As with a couple of others here, I'm glad I don't have to worry about taking him in the 3rd - I get to keep him in the 11th round. ;-D
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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby Pokeyouindaeye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 2:32 pm

Heh, I get to keep him as a final round selection, because I got him off the WW.
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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby Amazing Oopah » Thu Jul 26, 2007 2:44 pm

Braun is the new Atkins. He'll be going in the 3rd and 4th rounds next season.
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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby Legia13 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 2:52 pm

If the time is right and he falls into my lap I'll take him. Definitely not before Arod,Miggy,Wright.
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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby BJSFAN123 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 3:01 pm

Legia13 wrote:If the time is right and he falls into my lap I'll take him. Definitely not before Arod,Miggy,Wright.



yea, I'd say he is the 4th best 3b for fantasy out there.
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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby J35J » Thu Jul 26, 2007 3:03 pm

BJSFAN123 wrote:
Legia13 wrote:If the time is right and he falls into my lap I'll take him. Definitely not before Arod,Miggy,Wright.



yea, I'd say he is the 4th best 3b for fantasy out there.


I'd still take Aramis.....He may well be 5th though.
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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

Postby Scooter1027 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 3:15 pm

J35J wrote:
BJSFAN123 wrote:
Legia13 wrote:If the time is right and he falls into my lap I'll take him. Definitely not before Arod,Miggy,Wright.



yea, I'd say he is the 4th best 3b for fantasy out there.


I'd still take Aramis.....He may well be 5th though.


I think that's fair...A-Rod, Miggy, Wright, Aramis, Braun, in that order. Does that make Braun a 3rd rounder? Depends on league size. I play in a 14er and 18er, obviously leading to guys being taken a little earlier (round-wise). That may lead to some of the discrepencies in opinions here.
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