I can't imagine that he ends the season with an ERA above 3.5 at this point. He would have to be absolutely POUNDED a couple starts in a row, right now that looks rather unlikely. He has had a relatively steady, low WHIP the last few years, has a lights-out bullpen (best BP ERA in the majors) so fewer inherited runners should score, he makes half his starts in a park that plays to his strengths. Sure he is due for a correction to his ERA, but I think we are looking more at something closer to 3 than closer to 4 as some people are foolishly predicting. He had an ugly ugly July last year but beyond that has been extremely good. He also is striking out more batters (right around 1/IP). Everything I have seen on him talks about how difficult it is to pick up his fastball, it doesn't matter if he throws 60mph if hitters have a hard time seeing the ball, and are clearly uncomfortable facing him. No, he won't end up with an ERA under 2, but it's not a foregone conclusion it won't be under 3 when you keep in mind all of the factors surrounding his success so far.For all of the people that pointed out he's great at home, that's true. though last year he was mediocre at home and great on the road. We clearly aren't looking at Ervin Santana here. It's funny how little respect young gets...but people were big on guys like Garza and Dontrelle and Kazmir. Ah well, you guys drop him, and I'll just ride this train all the way to a HIDEOUS 3.0 ERA with about 200K and a WHIP of 1.15.
OnceinDC2\1 wrote:I can't imagine that he ends the season with an ERA above 3.5 at this point. He would have to be absolutely POUNDED a couple starts in a row, right now that looks rather unlikely. He has had a relatively steady, low WHIP the last few years, has a lights-out bullpen (best BP ERA in the majors) so fewer inherited runners should score, he makes half his starts in a park that plays to his strengths. Sure he is due for a correction to his ERA, but I think we are looking more at something closer to 3 than closer to 4 as some people are foolishly predicting. He had an ugly ugly July last year but beyond that has been extremely good. He also is striking out more batters (right around 1/IP). Everything I have seen on him talks about how difficult it is to pick up his fastball, it doesn't matter if he throws 60mph if hitters have a hard time seeing the ball, and are clearly uncomfortable facing him. No, he won't end up with an ERA under 2, but it's not a foregone conclusion it won't be under 3 when you keep in mind all of the factors surrounding his success so far.For all of the people that pointed out he's great at home, that's true. though last year he was mediocre at home and great on the road. We clearly aren't looking at Ervin Santana here. It's funny how little respect young gets...but people were big on guys like Garza and Dontrelle and Kazmir. Ah well, you guys drop him, and I'll just ride this train all the way to a HIDEOUS 3.0 ERA with about 200K and a WHIP of 1.15.
we pretty much agree, but i think you're getting a little too worked up there. no one's talking about dropping him. they're only saying he's not this good.
also, you do realize that for him to end the season with 3 era and 1.15 whip now, that means he's going to pitch around 4 era and 1.30 whip rest of the season right?
He actually only struggled in April and has just gotten better and more dominant as the season has progressed...I expect him to finish with an era around 2.5 and a whip under 1.10. I just have seen no sign of him slowing down or his performance dimishing, although maintaining an era under 2.00 seems highly unlikely...it's tough to be that dominant for an entire season. I am really impressed with his K/9IP which is at 8.9 or so...I expected him to be around 7.5. Go Chris...
OnceinDC2\1 wrote:I can't imagine that he ends the season with an ERA above 3.5 at this point. He would have to be absolutely POUNDED a couple starts in a row, right now that looks rather unlikely. He has had a relatively steady, low WHIP the last few years, has a lights-out bullpen (best BP ERA in the majors) so fewer inherited runners should score, he makes half his starts in a park that plays to his strengths. Sure he is due for a correction to his ERA, but I think we are looking more at something closer to 3 than closer to 4 as some people are foolishly predicting. He had an ugly ugly July last year but beyond that has been extremely good. He also is striking out more batters (right around 1/IP). Everything I have seen on him talks about how difficult it is to pick up his fastball, it doesn't matter if he throws 60mph if hitters have a hard time seeing the ball, and are clearly uncomfortable facing him. No, he won't end up with an ERA under 2, but it's not a foregone conclusion it won't be under 3 when you keep in mind all of the factors surrounding his success so far.For all of the people that pointed out he's great at home, that's true. though last year he was mediocre at home and great on the road. We clearly aren't looking at Ervin Santana here. It's funny how little respect young gets...but people were big on guys like Garza and Dontrelle and Kazmir. Ah well, you guys drop him, and I'll just ride this train all the way to a HIDEOUS 3.0 ERA with about 200K and a WHIP of 1.15.
we pretty much agree, but i think you're getting a little too worked up there. no one's talking about dropping him. they're only saying he's not this good.
also, you do realize that for him to end the season with 3 era and 1.15 whip now, that means he's going to pitch around 4 era and 1.30 whip rest of the season right?
At his innings pace, 4.5 era rest of the way to hit 3.
In his last 13 starts since May 1, he has given up 3 runs 1 time!! not one other start has he given up more then 2.
Guy is legit, it takes a pitcher that tall longer to develop control. I have been to 2 of his starts this year, against the dogs he won 1-0 and the 1-0 philly game. The way hes throwing right now he could be playing in williamsport and still have a 2 ERA. The Dobbs at bat was sick, I think when you factor in a 90 mph fast ball with a 10 ft stride/reach, throwing on a downward plane at approx 12ft to 2-3 ft that angle is just something noone has seen. He throws straight over the top, his ball moves down 10 ft from his release point, and hes essentially throwing from 55ft. He wont digress, expect 5 yrs of a 2 era, with his k's climbing
those who say hes a flyball pitcher, while that is true, hes not a flyball pitcher who gives up deep flyouts, lots of popups and not solid contact.
Now, if only he had a raging mullet, a wicked 'stache, and an unhittable slider, he could replace RJ!
Yes, I was, uh... I was thinking about ordering the tape, the videotape... about the college girls and the... the wild... the wildness. They're going wild or something? Somebody told me... about going wild.
-Larry David
Padsin05 wrote:In his last 13 starts since May 1, he has given up 3 runs 1 time!! not one other start has he given up more then 2.
Guy is legit, it takes a pitcher that tall longer to develop control. I have been to 2 of his starts this year, against the dogs he won 1-0 and the 1-0 philly game. The way hes throwing right now he could be playing in williamsport and still have a 2 ERA. The Dobbs at bat was sick, I think when you factor in a 90 mph fast ball with a 10 ft stride/reach, throwing on a downward plane at approx 12ft to 2-3 ft that angle is just something noone has seen. He throws straight over the top, his ball moves down 10 ft from his release point, and hes essentially throwing from 55ft. He wont digress, expect 5 yrs of a 2 era, with his k's climbing
those who say hes a flyball pitcher, while that is true, hes not a flyball pitcher who gives up deep flyouts, lots of popups and not solid contact.
Padsin05 wrote:In his last 13 starts since May 1, he has given up 3 runs 1 time!! not one other start has he given up more then 2.
Guy is legit, it takes a pitcher that tall longer to develop control. I have been to 2 of his starts this year, against the dogs he won 1-0 and the 1-0 philly game. The way hes throwing right now he could be playing in williamsport and still have a 2 ERA. The Dobbs at bat was sick, I think when you factor in a 90 mph fast ball with a 10 ft stride/reach, throwing on a downward plane at approx 12ft to 2-3 ft that angle is just something noone has seen. He throws straight over the top, his ball moves down 10 ft from his release point, and hes essentially throwing from 55ft. He wont digress, expect 5 yrs of a 2 era, with his k's climbing
those who say hes a flyball pitcher, while that is true, hes not a flyball pitcher who gives up deep flyouts, lots of popups and not solid contact.
ahaha, c'mon! and i'm a padres fan.
cmon what? The guy is really learning the game now he spent alot of time playing hoops. Factor in his trajectories, ballpark factor and I dont see how he cant be a 2.5 era guy year in and year out. Its not about speed, its about control, location and picking up the ball. He has a great pitching coach in Balsey, and good mentors in Maddux and Wells, along with a friendly competition to be the Ace with Jake
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by CBMGreatOne » Mon Jul 23, 2007 12:21 am .....
