dbstrat wrote:He will get hammered in the 2nd half. ERA will be 3.5+ by the end of the season.
Do you have anything to back this up or are you just making a wild and baseless statement?
Just giving my opinion. Sorry if that bothers you...
Based on what though? I'm sure no ones trying to offend you, but this guy has been so good, to make that type of a prediction warrants some type of support to back that up. I don't see him keeping up this kind of pace, as I don't think anyone thinks he'll keep an ERA under 2, but he'll I couldn't see him not having a solid second half as well. It'll be interesting to see where he'll go next year.
I just don't think he's that great. Throughout his career including minor's he has never been especially dominant over the long haul. I suspect that he is going to regress to him average dominance, that's all.
Remember Ollie Perez a few years back? Remember him the next year or two? There's plenty of examples of pitchers who go on amazing tears and the turn into garbage soon thereafter. I'm not saying he's going to become Ollie, but he's just not anywhere near this good.
If I had him, I would very much be selling high on him. I think the chances of him having a subpar 2nd half are much better than him following up with another impressive couple of months.
I've been high on him for like 3 years now and he has yet to let me down. I was really high on him this year at Petco with Greg Maddux on the team to mentor him. Look at the great years both he and Peavy are having with Maddux around.
I'm a firm believer in the philosophy of a ruling class... especially since I rule.
sell him if you can get near full value of what he's doing right now of course. that's pretty obvious.
two things make me think he's a good sell high:
1 his away splits were better than his home splits last year, which is really odd. his home splits are better than his away splits this year, but the point is that you can't for sure rely on the home park factor as the explanation for why he is so good. and if you don't have that, what explanation is there for his suddenly INHUMAN performance? natural maturation and development? ok, but into a 2 era pitcher? he's legitimately a legendary hall of fame pitcher now?
2 the 2 years where he's played a full season, he got worse in the 2nd half.
law of averages. he's going to regress. it's just a matter of how much. my guess is he'll give you around 3.10-3.50 era in the 2nd half, and for the year would have given you around 2.90-3.10 era.
dbstrat wrote:I just don't think he's that great. Throughout his career including minor's he has never been especially dominant over the long haul. I suspect that he is going to regress to him average dominance, that's all.
Remember Ollie Perez a few years back? Remember him the next year or two? There's plenty of examples of pitchers who go on amazing tears and the turn into garbage soon thereafter. I'm not saying he's going to become Ollie, but he's just not anywhere near this good.
If I had him, I would very much be selling high on him. I think the chances of him having a subpar 2nd half are much better than him following up with another impressive couple of months.
Ollie is a bad comparison. Ollie has great stuff, his mechanics were just really out of whack. And last time I checked, he's back to being a pretty solid option out there...
Laean wrote:1 his away splits were better than his home splits last year, which is really odd. his home splits are better than his away splits this year, but the point is that you can't for sure rely on the home park factor as the explanation for why he is so good.
I see your overall point, but to me the explanation above is all the more reason to think he will continue pitching great. He doesn't need to rely on a friendly ballpark to execute his dominance.
Either way just from seeing him pitch this year, his control has been pinpoint and his ball very very heavy. As long as keeps spotting hit pitches, with that type of bullpen and the bad hitting teams he will continue to face, I'd say he can keep up very close to the same numbers.
(The teams and hitters he faces in the NL West has got to be one of the main factors in his dominance this year though, right? And that will definitely continue in the second half.)
Laean wrote:1 his away splits were better than his home splits last year, which is really odd. his home splits are better than his away splits this year, but the point is that you can't for sure rely on the home park factor as the explanation for why he is so good.
I see your overall point, but to me the explanation above is all the more reason to think he will continue pitching great. He doesn't need to rely on a friendly ballpark to execute his dominance.
i just wish there was some explanation for him being this good. if the ballpark is helping him, if he's taking steroids or something (i'm not saying he is), if he's just been traded this season from colorado to petco, then there is SOME reason to believe he actually is this good. but there just is no reason that i can think of why he'd suddenly become what pedro and maddux only achieved 2x in their careers (sub 2 era pitcher), and what randy johnson never achieved at all.
Either way just from seeing him pitch this year, his control has been pinpoint and his ball very very heavy. As long as keeps spotting hit pitches, with that type of bullpen and the bad hitting teams he will continue to face, I'd say he can keep up very close to the same numbers.
i guess my point is i don't think his control will be as pinpoint or as heavy rest of the way, nor will he keep spotting his pitches as well as he's been doing. maybe he'll keep up some of it, but not all.
(The teams and hitters he faces in the NL West has got to be one of the main factors in his dominance this year though, right? And that will definitely continue in the second half.)
i'm sure that helps, as it would help any pitcher. but that doesn't explain a sub 2 era, as he pitched against the same NL West teams last year and had a solid (and believable) 3.46 era.
dbstrat wrote:I just don't think he's that great. Throughout his career including minor's he has never been especially dominant over the long haul. I suspect that he is going to regress to him average dominance, that's all.
Remember Ollie Perez a few years back? Remember him the next year or two? There's plenty of examples of pitchers who go on amazing tears and the turn into garbage soon thereafter. I'm not saying he's going to become Ollie, but he's just not anywhere near this good.
If I had him, I would very much be selling high on him. I think the chances of him having a subpar 2nd half are much better than him following up with another impressive couple of months.
Ollie is a bad comparison. Ollie has great stuff, his mechanics were just really out of whack. And last time I checked, he's back to being a pretty solid option out there...
I never was comparing them, I was giving an example of pitchers who came out of relatively nowhere to have awesome stretches and then went back to being bad. And yeah, Ollie is back in business. Are you going to draft him in the top 10 next year? Cause I sure ain't...
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by sportsguy138 » Fri Jul 20, 2007 4:26 pm 
