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Kent,Rolen,Hillenbrand,Spivey

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Kent,Rolen,Hillenbrand,Spivey

Postby Zebulon » Mon May 13, 2002 11:30 am

I just made a trade in my H2H league. I traded Kent and Rolen for Floyd and Sweeney.

The guy I traded with is loaded in the OF. My OF currently has Luis Gonzalez, Damon, Klesko, Erstad, and Shannon Stewart (right now I have Jay Gibbons in there till Stewart comes off DL).

I have Shea Hillenbrand and Junior Spivey occupying my CI and MI slots and after the trade they will move to 3B and 2B, with Floyd going to my OF and Stewart in my Util slot. Sweeney will go to CI.

Some of my co-owners think it was a really bad deal. They think Kent and Rolen are too valuable, but in comparing the numbers, Sweeney really puts up better, consistent numbers than Rolen. Plus, I don't think Kent will be 100% for a while.

I like Hillenbrand and think he is evolving into a more patient hitter and should be a lot better than last season. Spivey may be the only wildcard here, not too sure how he will end up. But I think Floyd's production, should he remain healthy, should compensate.

Anyone have any opinions?
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Postby Guest » Mon May 13, 2002 1:02 pm

I probably wouldn't have done that trade because of scarcity. Kent and Rolen are top notch at their positions while Floyd and Sweeney are good, 1st base and outfield are extremely deep positions while 3rd and 2nd have are greater dropoff from the top tier to the next.
Additionally, i still not sold on Hillanbrand & Spivey. Can these guys put it together for an entire season and how will J. Bell's return to Arizona affect Spivey? They very well can but we know kent are rolen are $.

However, with that said you will be picking up speed in Floyd and Sweeney will still put up solid #'s. If Floyd becomes a Yank i think his #'s improve even more.
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bad deal, IMO

Postby timkell » Mon May 13, 2002 3:42 pm

Don't mean to criticize you, but you asked. I agree with the previous poster. There are plenty of really good outfielders and first baseman. Sure, Sweeney may put up better numbers than Rolen, but many first basemen put up similar, or better, numbers to Sweeney.

Same deal with Kent. Once you go below the top 5 at first or third, there's a steep drop off. Not so with First base and outfield. We can debate rankings to a point, but let's use Sporting news rankings:
You traded the number 1 (Rolen) and number 6 (Kent. We all know he will end up higher in the rankings. I'd put him in the top three on my 2B wish list) players in very thin positions for the number 9 players in very deep positions.

Yes, Floyd and Sweeney may give you more points than Rolen and Kent, but you can't think of it that way. You have to think "what numbers do my current 1b, 2b, 3b and OF players put up. If I make this trade, what numbers do they put up?"

Unless you have Chavez and Alomar as your backups, you should expect to see a steep dropoff in your 2B and 3B numbers now that you lost these two. Your replacements may be doing well right now, but they're not proven. Big risk.

Second point: regardless of how this calculation comes out, you always get the maximum you can in a trade. Going forward, you should know that people will pay a premium for great second baseman, short stops, third baseman, and catchers, because there are so few good ones. The difference in production between the number 5 outfielder and the number 25 outfielder is not much. The difference in production between the number 5 second baseman and the number 25 second baseman is huge.

So even if you feel you'll do well with this trade, you could have done better. You should be arguing about Giambi for Rolen, not Sweeney.

I hope this didn't sound harsh. I'm only trying to give you good advice. At least you're here asking! You'll have more to knowledge and perspective to use in your next trade.
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Postby mktgteach » Mon May 13, 2002 4:09 pm

I am going to jump on this bandwagon. I am the king of position scarcity. My first draft pick in my leauge every year is Mike Piazza, then I go after my shorstop, then 2nd baseman.

Kent will be fine. He will back right around .300 and have about 25-30 HRs. Anyone benefits from batting near Barry Bonds. The problem with Sweeney is that he doesn't have consistent protection. Carlos Beltran is good, but you don't mention him in the same sentence as Bonds.....well I just did, but you get the point. He is an excellent hitter, but pitchers can pitch around him b/c he doesn't have true protection ala Kent/Bonds.

I like getting Floyd. IF, IF, IF, he stays healthy he is going to have a monster year. Florida's bats are hot.

Bottom line, you made the trade, so we can talk about it all day.....it won't change a thing. Forget about it and move on to your next possible move.

A suggestion, if you are concerned, ask the board before you pull the trigger.

I am out. ;-D
Go Hokies!
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Postby EugeneStyles » Mon May 13, 2002 5:47 pm

I'll be different for the sake of being different... Position scarcity is big, but it's not all it's cracked up to be. The outfield is considerably less deep than it's been in recent years. In one league, I have the semi-injured Timo Perez holding down a spot, just so it doesn't go to someone who will lower my team average. As far as I can tell, OF is deeper in the AL than the NL, and I play all NL-only leagues, but even in a mixed league, it's hard to argue with Floyd's numbers.

I wouldn't have given up Kent in this trade. However, going with a scrub 2B like Marlon Anderson or Marcus Giles, who will at least hit for average is not the worst thing you could do. There are also a bunch of decent utility men who could hold down 3B for you without hurting you, and maybe add some power.

Bottom line, I think you got the short end of that trade, but if you have even somewhat viable options at 2nd and 3rd, and were short in the outfield and at 1st, well... you shouldn't be too bad off.

Ah... just reread your post. I really like Spivey this year, and if dealing Kent for Sweeney helps get rid of some unneeded depth at 2B, more power to you (whereas Rolen for Floyd is a clear win for you).
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Postby Arlo » Mon May 13, 2002 8:26 pm

Ah, the old position scarcity debate - probably the most widely contested issue in fantasy baseball. (plug: an article on this subject is on our agenda...). But that's another discussion...

First off, I completely agree with Zebulon that you should follow your instincts when making moves for your team. If you think Kent won't return at full-strength and Rolen is overvalued (#1 on sporting news? Really? I like sporting news a lot, but I can't see where they're coming from here), you should definitely trade them, especially if you trust their backups. No question there.

However, timkell's second point hits the nail on the head: even if you wind up getting the better end of this deal (in which case quite a bit has to fall into place), you could have obtained more. Instead of being happy to have received Sweeney for Rolen, you could have advertised him as tsn's #1 3b and received a higher return.

I may be bood (good thing there's no sound on this site) for using a non-baseball analogy, but the closest parallel I see here came in the recent NFL draft: the Bengals picked up a player that they liked a lot but wasn't regarded highly by most scouts with an early pick. Did they get a great player? Maybe. The point is that they could have traded down, picked the same player later, and received a bonus thrown in.

This deal may yet work out for you, and I certainly hope it does (I like Sweeney, too, and a healthy Floyd is a great weapon. If Floyd does go to the Yankees, you have yourself a star). However, if others in your league don't think the deal was good, it's a sign that you could have received more.
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Postby Zebulon » Mon May 13, 2002 9:25 pm

Thanks to all who responded. Here is my thinking as to why I made the deal. I play in a Yahoo H2H league. When your team's performance is determined by week-to-week performace, I think having guys like Sweeney who are pretty consistent all season as opposed to more of a 2nd half player should benefit my team in the long run.

The whole position scarcity issue has come up in my league and I don't know how much stock I put into it. Hillenbrand and Spivey are ALREADY in my starting lineup with Kent and Rolen. Hillenbrand is my CI and Spivey my MI. So I'm looking at it as replacing Kent and Rolen's stats with Floyd and Sweeney's. I'm not really looking at it as replacing a 2B/3B with 1B/OF, because after all whichever team has the best overall stats and the end of the week, wins the matchup.
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Postby EugeneStyles » Mon May 13, 2002 11:09 pm

But you didn't mention who would go into your MI slot. Trading a 3B for a 1B isn't really a big deal, IMHO, even if you weren't playing in a leauge with a CI slot. 3B and 1B are both fairly deep positions. 1B is a little deeper, but 3B has a few more good players that can play more than 1 position, adding to the flexibility of your lineup (guys like Edgardo Alfonzo, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols, and guys like Craig Counsell who are definitely second tier, but can fill in for injuries).

So, trading a 2B for an OF boils down to who you're putting into that MI slot. Also, even though it's simply a question of lineup production *now*, that doesn't completely avoid the question of position scarcity. If Junior gets replaced or Hillenbrand goes down (neither looks likely now, which is good, but who knows?), you might be faced with position problems. Of course, this is based on the theory that it's easier to find a good OF or 3B off of the waiver wire, which I don't completely agree with. Me, I've had better luck finding 2B's and SS's than I have with outfielders.
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Postby Zebulon » Tue May 14, 2002 7:16 am

I have Rich Auirilia as my MI.
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