Steal Low: James Shields

[WebHamster]

This thread contains comments on Matthew St-Germain's Article "Steal Low: James Shields", which was posted in the Cafe's Articles section on July 12, 2007. The full article can be read here.

[Madison]

Chalk me up to thinking he was simply falling back to Earth. Interesting and pretty convincing read.

[bloodface]

Thank you very much for the compliment, and again, I'm sorry for the extra work you put in!

[jamastaballa]

My god, that was long...but it was a rewarding read, buddy.

As a "word guy," it was fun to read some advanced language use as well...thanks!

As far as the content, I felt like you had some great arguments about Shields' skill that people simply don't think about. The guy does a great job with most aspects of the game, like you said, but it's still hard to look at those earned runs. No matter how much you break down the stats, he STILL has to turn the corner and keep the ball down. Guys like Kyle Lohse still haven't figured it out on a consistent basis, and Shields' division isn't conducive to quick success either, so there's no guarantee that he'll tear it up this or any year.

All that said, nice work. Everyone who reads this piece, experienced or novice, should appreciate it for either its analysis or introduction to in-depth statistics.

Oh, and is feckless really the right word for people who are ill-informed? Lots of people don't even know the stats you're speaking of exist...

[rails80]

Thank you for this article. It was the yin to my yang, so to speak. As you commented in my thread and led me here, you know what I mean. This was an excellent read - a little long for my liking on a computer. Probably would rather have seen it in a magazine but that's not really a huge factor. The terminology was great, factual, etc. Keep them coming.

[bloodface]

Thanks dude.

Yes, he's gonna need to learn how to get the ball down more, as it seems a small batting adjustment has lead to some poor showings. He is after all, a change-up guy, and those pitches have a tendency to leave the park when left up. However, when you have that kind of control and pure stuff, it's an eventuality that he'll figure that part of his game out. Might not happen this year, might not next. But within 2 years, you can bet he'll be a household name. I really think he projects as a Brad Radke-type with much better K stuff.

As for feckless, it definitely was meant in terms of laziness. In terms of conciseness, I'm not sure how I could have gotten there quicker. I wanted to address the statistics themselves, what they meant for him in the minors, an overview of his 2006 and 2007 seasons, putting all of that into perspective, comparing him to other top pitchers, then using his bad starts as the final nail, and ending with a word of caution as well as reasons why you can avoid the caution.

I've got a few articles kicking around about the Padres and Rangers minor-league systems, but I'm not so sure how much people would want to read em.

[jamastaballa]

Oh, I just meant that it's a little presumptuous to label someone lazy when they may simply not have knowledge of such in-depth stats...I know that was the case for me before. It had nothing to do with a lack of willingness to know more about baseball.

With regard to your explanation of stats, they were nice, but there are always methods of shortening up thoughts...

I'd read anything you write, by the way...it's good stuff. Bring it!

I really need to write something.

[jim1773]

One of the best articles I have read in a long time -- whether Shields bounces back is to be seen, but at least there was some objectivity in the prediction.

[B-Chad]

I thought this was a tremendous read and am thankful that you introduced me to more peripheral stats that indicate how a pitcher is performing. I believe, as you do, that those owners who put the time into looking at peripherals (such as these), can buy low on a number of pitchers do to many owners simply looking at wins and losses and ERA and little else. I'd like to ask, since it is just this year I've been delving deeply into groundball and fly ball ratios, what other good peripheral stats should owners look at (such as the three you listed), and how can you calculate them? Prior to this season I did some research into groundball and fly ball ratios but tended more or less to look at k/9, WHIP, BB/9 and BAA in evaluating pitchers. Thanks in advance for any additional information you can provide. I'd also like to thank you for pointing out Shields as a guy to take a look at, as I just acquired him in my league for a combination of Billingsley and Andrew Miller (I needed to do a 2-1 in order to free up some space for some of my impending DL guys to be activated).