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Where will A-Rod land?

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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby slomo007 » Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:52 am

in10s wrote:My opinions may be covered as a die hard yankee fan who loves A-Rod and hated those fans who booed him last year. But here are a couple of key things the I think:

* Whatever Boras says now, he will negotiate with the Yankees at some point prior to A-Rod opting out.
* The Yankees have a huge financial advantage over the other teams bidding. And I don't mean the usual issues. The Texas money makes a big difference.
* Therefore, the Yankees odds are way too low on the original post.

We all know the Yankees have a financial advantage before Op-Out because of the Rangers money. But exactly how much impact does it have? Look at Boras's choices:

* Choice 1) A-rod opts out and there is an auction.
* Choice 2) Boras gets the Yankees top price before the bidding war. Add the Rangers money to that already competitive price.

Which is a higher amount? I'm no Scott Boras, but here is my guess how he is going to handle it:
* At this point of the season, Boras has to tell the world he is going choice 1. Otherwise he won't have leverage over the Yankees.
* But at some point, he will negotiate with the Yankees to get their top offer before A-Rod opts out and bidding starts.
* Then he will do what he always does, decide which choice gets Boras more money. (oops, I meant to say which choice gets A-Rod more. Surely Boras doesn't care about his fee, just his client. :-D )

So, I believe there will be real negotiations with the Yankees before the offical opt-out, no matter what people are saying today. As for what happens, after that, I have no clue. But with the financial leverage, the Yankees have better odds then what was in the original news article that quoted odds.

There is one possible twist. Does A-Rod have a real favorite place he wants to be? Finish his career with the Yankees like he has said in the past? Go to Lou in Chicago? Salivate at the Green Monster adding 50 HRs to his career? Or a southern california dream? In any of these cases, A-Rod could possibly tell Boras he doesn't care about the best money, but the best combination of money and where he wants to be. But given the way Boras works, and what we know of A-Rod, I doubt a big discount to anyone. Maybe a really small one.

---
The important points are above, the rest below here is how I figured the money pieces in detail. Only for those of you who are as serious as I am and don't mind cat attacks :-D

KCollins1304 wrote:According to http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... 60040.html

Arod is making $27M per year, with the Rangers paying 7 mill of it each year.


Thanks to KCollins1304 for the reference, but I don't think the Rangers are paying $7 a year of the contract. From the mlbcontract blog KCollins provided:

When the Yankees got him from the Rangers, A-rod had 7 years/$183M remaining, the original deal for salary in those seven years was $21M, $25, $25, $27, $27, $27, $27. Texas agreed to pay $4M remaining signing bonus, and $67M of remaining $179M leaving the Yankees the remaining $112.

I can't find a reference for how the $67M the Rangers are paying was split. But I remember when the deal was done, the Yankees wanted it be able to say they only paid A-Rod $16M a year. (16x7=112) So, I'm guessing the amount the rangers agreed to pay the Yankees is: $5M, $9, $9, $11, $11, $11, $11. If someone has a source to prove me right (or wrong) please post it.

With three years left, if I am right, is Texas owes the Yankees $33M, if and only if, A-Rod doesn't opt out.

Now, lets assume A-Rod's total future contract is 8 year $30M/year contract for a total value of $240M. The Yankees can match that by offering A-Rod "only" an extension of 5 years at $32M a year. Total cost to the Yankees is $207M.

But how does this look in terms of money budgeted? The cost in long term cash flow increase for Yankees is only $160M. They already have a budget to pay him $48M over the next 3 years, with a new deal they will spend $208M. (there is a rounding error). Any other team may have budget for future free agents, but still, they have to ensure they are covering an additional $240M of actual committed funds in comparison to the Yankees needing to committ an actual additiona $160M. That is an amazing difference.

I don't know if I agree with the money budgeted arguement. But clearly, the Yankees have an either great ($33M) or amazing ($80M) financial leverage over other teams, until he opts out. You really think Boras wont negotiate to that before deciding on opt-out?


I'm confused....if he opts out of his contract (even if he just re-signs a different contract with the Yankees) the Rangers are completely and totally off the hook for their remaining money. So if A-rod really wanted to stick it to NY (I mean, take care of himself), he would sign a $30M/year contract with NYY which would in essence be costing NYY WAY more than what he's making now because of the fact that they're basically getting him at a discount already. You're talking about nearly doubling the cost to the NYY for A-rod. Now that's funny.

Of course I could be misunderstanding.

edit, just read through your post for a 2nd time and now think we're basically saying the same thing. Only, you think that A-rod wants to help the Yankees by signing an extension to his current contract rather than opt-out and re-sign. I feel like he wants to stick it to them (he's a prideful guy by the way) and test the free agent waters, only to have NYY beg for him to come back. Or, maybe that's just the way I'd do it. :-B
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby jbauer2485 » Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:15 pm

Arod will not opt out.
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby Big Pimpin » Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:27 pm

jbauer2485 wrote:Arod will not opt out.


Oh, good. It's settled then... ;-7

I still don't think there's any chance he doesn't opt out. It's possible that he will re-sign with them, but he'd be foolish not to test the market. Personally, I hope the Yankee fans get what they deserve and he walks off the field on the last day of the season with both middle fingers held high (and then comes back to Seattle of course B-) ).
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby darb48824 » Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:47 pm

Jack Bauer must have some intel cus he is pretty convinced that Arod is staying. Wishful thinking i belevie its called.
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby nsulham » Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:56 pm

jbauer2485 wrote:Arod will not opt out.


Please tell me why you think this is when all the other logical evidence points otherwise.

Unless of course you are the desperate Yankee fan who is hoping against hope that the damage isn't done to the best ballplayer in the game, who is represented by Satan himself, and think he won't test the open market to see what he's worth and he's not leaving.

He may re-sign once he hits the market (although the Yankees have publicly said they won't negotiate with him if he does) but there's almost 0.0000% chance he doesn't opt out.
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby knapplc » Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:13 pm

If that $250M contract taught us nothing else about ARod and Boras, it taught us that they know how to get the most $$$ for their product. It stands to reason that ARod will play for whichever team pays him the most, end of story.

The teams most likely to do that are the Yankees and Red Sox, with the possible third option of the Cubs, depending on who buys them (although realistically with the sale happening after the season I doubt ARod ends up in Wrigley). Both the Yankees and Red Sox have exhibited a willingness to pay top dollar for talent in years past.

Next year ARod will be in New York again, and if he's not he'll be playing in Boston. ;-D
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby RocketsDWM » Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:47 pm

Boras isnt going to leave money on the table. Thats why he wont negotiate in-season. Teams are preparing to give him 30 mil plus. At the very least he should test the market.

Then go to either Boston or Seattle. ;-D
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby in10s » Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:56 pm

slomo007 wrote:
in10s wrote:My opinions may be covered as a die hard yankee fan who loves A-Rod and hated those fans who booed him last year. But here are a couple of key things the I think:

* Whatever Boras says now, he will negotiate with the Yankees at some point prior to A-Rod opting out.
* The Yankees have a huge financial advantage over the other teams bidding. And I don't mean the usual issues. The Texas money makes a big difference.
* Therefore, the Yankees odds are way too low on the original post.

...lots of stuff removed....


you think that A-rod wants to help the Yankees by signing an extension to his current contract rather than opt-out and re-sign. I feel like he wants to stick it to them (he's a prideful guy by the way) and test the free agent waters, only to have NYY beg for him to come back. Or, maybe that's just the way I'd do it. :-B


Actually, what I am trying to say, but using way too many words is:
*Boras wants to maximize cash (we all know this) and he has two choices:
*Choice one, opt out, auction to all bidders gets highest price any one team will pay
*Choice tow, get best offer from Yankees that is X real dollars to Yankees, but Dollars to Boras/ARod is X+33Million.

The day A-Rod officially opt out, that $33M from the Rangers is gone. Therefore, the Yankees best offer during the auction is probably less than their best offer before opt out.

Does that make sense?
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby slomo007 » Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:03 pm

in10s wrote:
slomo007 wrote:
in10s wrote:My opinions may be covered as a die hard yankee fan who loves A-Rod and hated those fans who booed him last year. But here are a couple of key things the I think:

* Whatever Boras says now, he will negotiate with the Yankees at some point prior to A-Rod opting out.
* The Yankees have a huge financial advantage over the other teams bidding. And I don't mean the usual issues. The Texas money makes a big difference.
* Therefore, the Yankees odds are way too low on the original post.

...lots of stuff removed....


you think that A-rod wants to help the Yankees by signing an extension to his current contract rather than opt-out and re-sign. I feel like he wants to stick it to them (he's a prideful guy by the way) and test the free agent waters, only to have NYY beg for him to come back. Or, maybe that's just the way I'd do it. :-B


Actually, what I am trying to say, but using way too many words is:
*Boras wants to maximize cash (we all know this) and he has two choices:
*Choice one, opt out, auction to all bidders gets highest price any one team will pay
*Choice tow, get best offer from Yankees that is X real dollars to Yankees, but Dollars to Boras/ARod is X+33Million.

The day A-Rod officially opt out, that $33M from the Rangers is gone. Therefore, the Yankees best offer during the auction is probably less than their best offer before opt out.

Does that make sense?


It does make sense, I just think Alex is the type of guy that wants to see teams strive to get him. If he's going to wait all season, I think he'll at least opt-out to see what's available. I also think that he would end up getting more money on the open market than he would if he doesn't opt-out and instead takes the Yankees best offer. He'd have 3 teams competing for his services, after an MVP season, and the chance to lock up the likely future HR king all the way through his retirement. If that's not worth over $30M a year, I don't know what is. He'll get his $30M pretty easily, IMO. The Yankees would probably offer it as an extension along with Texas' piece which would put arod at well over $30M a year in his pocket....which I think is what you're getting at....but I just think Arod wants to see the bidding war personally.
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby in10s » Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:14 pm

slomo007 wrote: The Yankees would probably offer it as an extension along with Texas' piece which would put arod at well over $30M a year in his pocket....which I think is what you're getting at....but I just think Arod wants to see the bidding war personally.


That is what I'm trying to get at.

Assume Yankees offer $340 before opt out, but say we will only offer $310 after because we lose the rangers money.
Assume Boris thinks that an auction will result in "only" $320M from <pick your team here>

Boras then has A-Rod sign with the Yankees befoe the auction, because the $340M the Yankees offer before won't be valid after opt out.

Of course, this is why Boras will have a tough decision. He won't KNOW before hand what the top value A-rod will get in an open market auction.

This also assumes Cashman presents it this way. "Hey Scott B, I can offer more because you know we have deep pockets plus we have another $33M from Texas"

$33M is clearly enough money to move the Yankees up the odds board a little bit. Not enough to guarentee anything, but to improve their odds.
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