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Where will A-Rod land?

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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby BritSox » Sun Jul 15, 2007 1:19 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
GHirsch516 wrote:
Hate to break it to you but thats how it works in baseball. You do good, you get cheered. You do bad, you get jeered.

That's funny, because I haven't heard Papi or Manny given so much as a single boo during their struggles so far this season.



No to mention, .290 35 HR constitutes 'doing bad?'
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby SJNez46 » Sun Jul 15, 2007 1:29 pm

Hate to break it to you but thats how it works in baseball. You do good, you get cheered. You do bad, you get jeered.[/quote]
That's funny, because I haven't heard Papi or Manny given so much as a single boo during their struggles so far this season.[/quote]
Well, that is probably because Ortiz is hitting .320, and is 4th in the league in doubles. Not to mention that he needs surgery on his right knee. ANd Manny has done great for the Red Sox for a while. That is where the whole loyalty thing comes into play. Yankees faans have no loyalty
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby in10s » Sun Jul 15, 2007 2:22 pm

My opinions may be covered as a die hard yankee fan who loves A-Rod and hated those fans who booed him last year. But here are a couple of key things the I think:

* Whatever Boras says now, he will negotiate with the Yankees at some point prior to A-Rod opting out.
* The Yankees have a huge financial advantage over the other teams bidding. And I don't mean the usual issues. The Texas money makes a big difference.
* Therefore, the Yankees odds are way too low on the original post.

We all know the Yankees have a financial advantage before Op-Out because of the Rangers money. But exactly how much impact does it have? Look at Boras's choices:

* Choice 1) A-rod opts out and there is an auction.
* Choice 2) Boras gets the Yankees top price before the bidding war. Add the Rangers money to that already competitive price.

Which is a higher amount? I'm no Scott Boras, but here is my guess how he is going to handle it:
* At this point of the season, Boras has to tell the world he is going choice 1. Otherwise he won't have leverage over the Yankees.
* But at some point, he will negotiate with the Yankees to get their top offer before A-Rod opts out and bidding starts.
* Then he will do what he always does, decide which choice gets Boras more money. (oops, I meant to say which choice gets A-Rod more. Surely Boras doesn't care about his fee, just his client. :-D )

So, I believe there will be real negotiations with the Yankees before the offical opt-out, no matter what people are saying today. As for what happens, after that, I have no clue. But with the financial leverage, the Yankees have better odds then what was in the original news article that quoted odds.

There is one possible twist. Does A-Rod have a real favorite place he wants to be? Finish his career with the Yankees like he has said in the past? Go to Lou in Chicago? Salivate at the Green Monster adding 50 HRs to his career? Or a southern california dream? In any of these cases, A-Rod could possibly tell Boras he doesn't care about the best money, but the best combination of money and where he wants to be. But given the way Boras works, and what we know of A-Rod, I doubt a big discount to anyone. Maybe a really small one.

---
The important points are above, the rest below here is how I figured the money pieces in detail. Only for those of you who are as serious as I am and don't mind cat attacks :-D

KCollins1304 wrote:According to http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... 60040.html

Arod is making $27M per year, with the Rangers paying 7 mill of it each year.


Thanks to KCollins1304 for the reference, but I don't think the Rangers are paying $7 a year of the contract. From the mlbcontract blog KCollins provided:

When the Yankees got him from the Rangers, A-rod had 7 years/$183M remaining, the original deal for salary in those seven years was $21M, $25, $25, $27, $27, $27, $27. Texas agreed to pay $4M remaining signing bonus, and $67M of remaining $179M leaving the Yankees the remaining $112.

I can't find a reference for how the $67M the Rangers are paying was split. But I remember when the deal was done, the Yankees wanted it be able to say they only paid A-Rod $16M a year. (16x7=112) So, I'm guessing the amount the rangers agreed to pay the Yankees is: $5M, $9, $9, $11, $11, $11, $11. If someone has a source to prove me right (or wrong) please post it.

With three years left, if I am right, is Texas owes the Yankees $33M, if and only if, A-Rod doesn't opt out.

Now, lets assume A-Rod's total future contract is 8 year $30M/year contract for a total value of $240M. The Yankees can match that by offering A-Rod "only" an extension of 5 years at $32M a year. Total cost to the Yankees is $207M.

But how does this look in terms of money budgeted? The cost in long term cash flow increase for Yankees is only $160M. They already have a budget to pay him $48M over the next 3 years, with a new deal they will spend $208M. (there is a rounding error). Any other team may have budget for future free agents, but still, they have to ensure they are covering an additional $240M of actual committed funds in comparison to the Yankees needing to committ an actual additiona $160M. That is an amazing difference.

I don't know if I agree with the money budgeted arguement. But clearly, the Yankees have an either great ($33M) or amazing ($80M) financial leverage over other teams, until he opts out. You really think Boras wont negotiate to that before deciding on opt-out?
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Jul 15, 2007 2:58 pm

Rangers owner Hicks talks about A-Rod's contract
Hicks said Major League Baseball rules prevent him from talking about the opt-out clause. In a phone interview with Newsday on Friday, the Rangers owner said he has no regrets about giving Rodriguez the landmark contract.

“No, never,” Hicks said.

Newsday | FULL STORY
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby Melo255 » Sun Jul 15, 2007 4:07 pm

As Sox fans we dislike A-Rod because he's a Yankee and it's as simple as that. Everyone I know however remembers that A-Rod wanted to and agreed to come to Boston before the Commissioners office killed it. If A-Rod came to Boston he would be shown love from the fans like few others. As a constant MVP candidate with 50 home run power(maybe more in Fenway), defector from the Yankees and player who previously tried to come here he would be welcomed with open arms.
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby AussieDodger » Sun Jul 15, 2007 4:19 pm

Melo255 wrote:As Sox fans we dislike A-Rod because he's a Yankee and it's as simple as that. Everyone I know however remembers that A-Rod wanted to and agreed to come to Boston before the Commissioners office killed it. If A-Rod came to Boston he would be shown love from the fans like few others. As a constant MVP candidate with 50 home run power(maybe more in Fenway), defector from the Yankees and player who previously tried to come here he would be welcomed with open arms.


Exactly
And if he went to Oakland (I know - dream on dream on) he would get shown the love. Anywhere that the fans aren't spoiled like the Bronx.
I could see him getting along famously with Swish and "who ate all the pies" Cust. (Kidding , love ya Custy)
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby RynMan » Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:15 am

AussieDodger wrote:And if he went to Oakland (I know - dream on dream on) he would get shown the love. Anywhere that the fans aren't spoiled like the Bronx.
I could see him getting along famously with Swish and "who ate all the pies" Cust. (Kidding , love ya Custy)


:~( Yeah, we have no shot at A-Rod.

I'm sure Cust ate the pie - just watch that man run....that's all the proof you need.
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby ScrappyDoo » Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:44 am

mtxdevil wrote:
ScrappyDoo wrote:This is a really funny situation. The yanks are down 10 games and they are panicking because they are getting older and the best player in baseball is going to leave at the end of the year. Why wouldn't he leave, only in NY can a player put up a spectacular season and still get booed. As a sox fan I wouldnt mind if we signed him, just to stick it to the yankees. But I bet he ends up going to the Angels. If the Yankees have said they wont go into a bidding war if he opts out, than he has no chance of staying. Boras is his agent and he is definately going to test the open market to get a ludacris contract.

90% of the people in here saying he will stay in NY are yankees fans.


Off topic, I just think it's interesting how everyone spells ludicrous now because of the so called "artist". :-b



Didn't even realize I did that. I was an English major too. Damn subliminal pop culture.
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby acsguitar » Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:48 am

Just a side Note:

I was watching Sportscenter two nights ago and every lead into the commercial it was "Next on sports center could Arod be going to the Red Sox!!"

Then after doing that five times they got to the story which actually isn't a story. They asked Tim Kurkjan where they thought he'd go and he said ...... "The Yankees"

So basically ESPN was just making up a story to keep people interested. Now of course this happens all the time but it shows A: You can't believe anything that comes from ESPN B: they suck
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Re: Where will A-Rod land?

Postby jorwoods » Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:18 am

Papi, Man-Ram, ARod.

That would just be insane.

This doesn't contribute any new information...I just can't get over that possibility...

Papi, Man-Ram, ARod.....
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