Predictions: (These are barring injuries , which is unrealistic). AL West: Oakland - Their hitting hasn't taken off yet. They have a tradition of second half blast offs. AL Central: Detroit - Either Gagne or Otsuka are ending up there , you know it. AL East: Boston - The east is Bostons to lose. AL Wildcard: Angels - Pitching beats Cleveland.
I have no idea who beats who in finals but i do know , AL winner: Boston
NL West: San Diego - Watch them pull away with it. NL Central: Milwaukee - I do not want to watch if someone else gets in from this division. NL East: Florida - If Josh Johnson AND Ricky Nolasco can return shortly look out! NL Wildcard: NY Mets - After NYM and Atlanta , who the hell knows?
Again winner of finals lottery should be: NL Winner: Milwaukee
WS: Boston without breaking a sweat. (Injuries permitting)
I know that Oakland are 9 games back and blah blah blah , but Piazza/Buck and mystery trade target will help them over the line in runs scored.
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darb48824 wrote:current odds to win the World Series
Boston: 3/1 Detroit: 10/1
Cant argue with Vegas they put more thought into this process that any one can imagine.
They do put a lot of thought and research into their lines and odds, but they don't set them based on who they think is more likely to win. They are set to optimize wagering so the house is likely to make the most money.
darb48824 wrote:current odds to win the World Series
Boston: 3/1 Detroit: 10/1
Cant argue with Vegas they put more thought into this process that any one can imagine.
If you truely believe this, you are nuts. This is a classic "sucker" line based on fan base. Boston has a ton of fans and they'll get a lot of action at 3/1. Of course, Vegas always wins and my gambling intuition tells me that they feel Detroit will actually win out. At 10/1 they won't get as much high dollar bets on Detroit. In the end, Vegas wins.
dillpickle wrote:How did that bullpen do the past weekend? I know Schilling is hurt, but your main setup guy (Okayldkjfalskfdjdaskfjds or whatever) and Paps didn't fair too well. I also get a kick out of you saying their offenses are a wash. Go check the team stats on MLB for viewing pleasure and valid information. Rogers has had a long career. Hope that career ERA you suggest doesn't punish him for some bad performances 15 years ago. Last year, he faced Boston once going 7 innings, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 7 K's. Didn't check Robertson's recent history versus Boston, but if you want to go career numbers, maybe the Tigers will throw Miller in as the #4 and put Robertson in the pen. What is Miller's career numbers versus the Sox? Paps is definitely better then Jones, but you have to get to the 9th with the lead for him to be of any value. Check out how Mariano Riviera faired last year in the playoffs versus the Tigers. He pitched a wopping one inning.
I hope you're not punishing the Sox bullpen (or team for that matter) for one bad weekend as they cruised into the Allstar break with a double digit lead, are you?
So you're saying that Rogers throwing a 7 IP, 1 ER gem against the Sox last year IMPROVED his career ERA to 4.81? Sorry - thanks for the correction.
I actually agree with the Miller assessment - I'd put him in over Robertson in a heartbeat. But that's not what I was responding to. You seem to have this belief that Robertson is better than the Sox 4th, 5th, or even 6th starters. He's not.
It's Oh-Ka-Ji-Ma. Not really that hard.
Why can't the Sox get to Papelbon? They have 4 starters who can easily get into the 8th inning (Sox lead the league in fewest bullpen innings pitched by far) so you are talking about an all star closer, an all star set up guy, and then you mix and match with the rest of the guys. I'll take the Sox pen over the Detroit pen, no questions asked.
As for the Sox offense, granted - you can look at 3 months of stats and conclude that Detroit is better if you want... I myself choose to believe that Papi, Manny, Drew and yes - even Lugo - will hit much better in the second half. The question is whether Youk and Lowell can repeat their first halves.
So you really think Oh-Ka-Ji-Ma is better then a healthy Zumaya? Interesting. Is your second best setup man better then Miller? Is your 3rd best better then a healthy Rodney? Think you may be stretching a few things, but go for it. Sounds good to me.
What real team does the Sox lead by 10 games? The Tigers have virtually the same record. The entire AL East blows this year, so what does that 10 game East lead tell anyone. Nothing.
As it relates to your great bullpen, you use the same three months that I'm judging the hitters by to judge the Sox pen (exception Paps). Of course, it is ok for you to say the Sox have a better pen based on the previous three months, but the Tigers don't have a way, way better lineup based on just those same three months. Not quite following you on this one.
What Tiger hitter is going to drop off considerably? Just wondering. None of them are playing too far over their head. Of course, saying that Drew and Lugo will hit better isn't saying much. So they hit 230 instead of 200. Great.
I'll take the Tigers over anyone in baseball. Boston's pen isn't as good as its been and the offense is definitely not as good as Detroit's. Schilling is hurt and are their rotation is no better than Detroit's.
Don't discount the Padres and their staff... seriously. How many runs does it take to win a baseball game? 1. That's right. Just one. And when you've got a staff and bullpen that is downright filthy, well that's tough to beat - even if the opposing team spends millions and millions of dollars on big hitters with big bats who are supposed to produce.
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by AussieDodger » Mon Jul 09, 2007 6:04 pm 
