Dye's going to probably be a .270, 20+ HR, 90 RBI guy if he stays healthy. Last year was a disaster for him, and we don't have much of a history to see how he bounces back from it.
Drew seems to be a walking time bomb. If he stays healthy he'll out-produce Dye.
Greater risk/reward with Drew, but he'll also cost you more (either in terms of draft pick or $ value at an auction).
I'd lean towards Dye, but only b/c you could get him much later in a draft or for a much cheaper price in an auction. Both are a risky, but for the price you'll pay Dye's the better value.
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
come to think of it, its the outfield !!!
There has to be tons of other options ...
for all that is holy here in the cafe ... please list other options before you make your pick ... Please, please please ..
I can see it already ..
April 15th 3:46PM ...
... "Damn Cafe!!! You told me to take JD Drew, and now he has a blister on his butt, and is out for the season, as the MRI is inconclusive."
"I HATE YOU CAFE"
so please list your other options... there has to be some. Its the OF for crying out loud !!
I believe that there is sometimes great value in injury risk players. Sometimes people forget that even if a Drew goes on the DL you can replace him in the lineup with somebody. Take Drew in '01, for example. I will always have a warm spot in my heart for Drew because he won me 2 leagues and much cash that season even though he only had 375 at bats. Those 375 AB's, though, gave me the production of a $40+ players. For the other 40% of the season that Drew missed I plugged in a plethora of players and probably got no better than $20 production out of them, but if you add it up I got combined about a $33 player, which was better than Wells and Ramirez last season.
My point is, some players can give you such great production when they're healthy that they're worth the risk if you can get them late. I'm debating whether Griffey is worth it because he seems to have become a low average, low steal, power hitter when healthy. Of the two I'd recommend Drew.
I know, I know, another crazy thought. Let the "you're nuts" calls cascade upon me.
Erboes wrote:I believe that there is sometimes great value in injury risk players. Sometimes people forget that even if a Drew goes on the DL you can replace him in the lineup with somebody. Take Drew in '01, for example. I will always have a warm spot in my heart for Drew because he won me 2 leagues and much cash that season even though he only had 375 at bats. Those 375 AB's, though, gave me the production of a $40+ players. For the other 40% of the season that Drew missed I plugged in a plethora of players and probably got no better than $20 production out of them, but if you add it up I got combined about a $33 player, which was better than Wells and Ramirez last season.
My point is, some players can give you such great production when they're healthy that they're worth the risk if you can get them late. I'm debating whether Griffey is worth it because he seems to have become a low average, low steal, power hitter when healthy. Of the two I'd recommend Drew.
I know, I know, another crazy thought. Let the "you're nuts" calls cascade upon me.
As much as this sounds like an aboutface for me...I like your theory. ...especially in a deep position like OF. Every year a Jody Gerut or somebody shows up out of nowhere to fill your hole. Jeeezzzz....now I have to reevaluate my whole draft order.
"Ninety feet between bases is the closest man has ever come to perfection"
I usually go for the high risk guys. Look i got Griffey very late last year, like in round 15(and last year he was going high cause of the great spring he had) and he hit well when i had him wich was for very little time. I replaced with Milton Bradley. He went down and i got Luis Matos. I think this points was made early but if i had to pick Griffey between Griffey and a bunch of average Joes who can easily be replaced then i dont see it as a loss. Playing it safe isnt that safe either. So i most likeley will take risks when it comes to SP´s, closers and OF
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