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How Important are Home/Road Splits?

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How Important are Home/Road Splits?

Postby Cobaltred » Sun Jul 08, 2007 10:15 pm

I'm curious what you guys think of the value of Home/road splits, especially for pitchers. A lot of people on this site seem to put a lot of stock in these things, saying things like "Only start E. Santana at home" etc, etc. I chalk most of the large home/road splits this season up to the magic of small sample size. Certainly there are instances where flyball pitchers pitching in a bandbox will regress, ground ball pitchers on carpet, etc. but I feel like other than those with exceptionally high or low GB/FB ratios, it's really not worth concerning yourself with. I mean even if Angel Stadium was a pitcher's park, you have to chalk up most of that 5 run differential to randomness right?
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Re: How Important are Home/Road Splits?

Postby sandman042 » Sun Jul 08, 2007 10:20 pm

yea i take into account home road splits. alot of pitchers have around the same road as home era so u cant use it there like 3.90 home 4.00 away so u really cant decide when to start him or not but for other pitchers like ervin santana u have to follow the splits or ur era is srewed for that week.
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Re: How Important are Home/Road Splits?

Postby Snakes Gould » Sun Jul 08, 2007 10:27 pm

while the small sample size can surely skew the stats some, but if you can get a large enough sample, they are certainly more than enough to change a player's value. for example, take a look at teixeira's home/away splits this year and compare them to his career in arlington. the home park is obviously very advantageous for him. bronson arroyo is another player but its the opposite. GAB is terrible to pitch in so his home stats are much different than his away.

if the difference is a few hits here or there, i dont think you can really use them to gauge. but in some circumstances, they can be very useful.
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Re: How Important are Home/Road Splits?

Postby Splendid61 » Sun Jul 08, 2007 11:02 pm

Adrian Gonzalez should only be started on the Road. Makes me feel better about only starting Chris Duncan against Right-handed Starters. Both are platoon players from a fantasy standpoint, but owners can use Duncan a lot more often than A-Gon.
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Re: How Important are Home/Road Splits?

Postby Noggy » Mon Jul 09, 2007 3:30 am

I don't think you can write off Santana's splits to small sample size or randomness. It's not a 5 run difference. He's allowed around 50 more runs on the road in about 70 less innings.

But I'm sure part of the reason for his home/away splits are that he's more comfortable at home, but park factor shows it's pretty hard to hit homeruns at Angel Stadium. Santana's biggest problem is that he's allowed 38 HRs in 182 innings on the road (vs 21 at home in 256.2 innings) so it's not like there's no reason why he's been bad on the road based strictly on ballparks.
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