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DOES PUJOLS HAVE UPSIDE OR HAS HE PEAKED?

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Postby jonnyblack » Thu Feb 05, 2004 8:29 pm

Yup, he went to high school in Kansas City, and I think there is a hint of slight racism in these age rumors (not accusing anyone here; just saying that the only reason people think he may be older is that he is Dominican, completely ignoring the fact that he is, in fact, an American citizen where documentation is much more stringent.) Sure, a few, if not a bunch of Latin players lied about their age but this simply doesn't apply to pujols.

The knock on him coming out of JUCO was that he was too fat. That is why the Royals didn't draft him. This little "fat" tidbit has stuck with me. He, or course, has slimmed down considerably, but as age catches up with him, I wonder if he will look more like Mo Vaugn than Gary Sheffield.
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Postby gypsyspot » Thu Feb 05, 2004 8:34 pm

Pujols definetely has an upside. I think he will eventually enter a Bond's like point in his career. It took Bonds five years in the majors to draw 100 walks. Pujols will keep getting more and more comfortable, and his power and walks will soar.
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Postby baseball genius » Thu Feb 05, 2004 8:38 pm

I don't think Pujols will ever even come close Mo. :-)

I don't think his numbers will get much better than this but his numbers should be in the same ballpark for the next 10 years.
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Postby justinA » Thu Feb 05, 2004 8:43 pm

if by upside u mean get better, I dont think so. He will just be extremely consistent and by next year I think he will be the popular choice for the number 1 overall selection in fantasy drafts everywhere.
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Postby CrimeDog » Thu Feb 05, 2004 9:28 pm

I'm predicting a .390 65 160 type of season out of him before the end of his career.
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Postby StLrEdBiRdS2004 » Thu Feb 05, 2004 9:37 pm

I dont know about that Crime Dog, but maybe a .360 55 160
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Postby CrimeDog » Thu Feb 05, 2004 9:43 pm

.360 55 160 may be a little more realistic, but hey you never know!!!!
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Postby Erboes » Thu Feb 05, 2004 10:27 pm

CrimeDog wrote:I'm predicting a .390 65 160 type of season out of him before the end of his career.


YIKES!

Man, I'm a Pujols owner after I got him last season in the biggest heist in fantasy baseball history (and got laughed at in the process), but I'm more grounded to Earth then the rest of you. If he equals what he did his first two seasons I am happy. If he consistently does what he did last season I would be high as a John Belushi in Animal House. If he even comes close to this .390 thing I think the sheer ecstacy of it would cause me to become a eunich. I have no clue what the guy will do in the future, but I'd be surprised if he -- or anyone else for that matter -- is capable of that.
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Postby BKeller » Fri Feb 06, 2004 12:35 am

Erboes-

Since I've read and enjoyed many of your posts, I know you're a believer in statistical trends . . . guys tend to develop power slightly further into their careers and start hitting for better average after a few years in the Bigs. Wouldn't standard player development trends suggest that Pujols will be hitting even more HRs in the coming year with a comparable or better AVG? I can't think of ANYONE who has begun his career with this sort of power/average combination, which makes me wonder if A-Poo will do even better.

For example Sammy Sosa's power.AVG didn't peak until around his 8th full year in MLB (66 HRs, .308, and the AVG got even higher a few years later), Bagwell until his 10th (47 HRs, .310) (although he had a higher AVG earlier on once or twice), Palmeiro until his 13th (47 HRs, .324) . . . if this is representative, and unless these players' success was attributable to a juiced ball or some similar factor, Pujols should be hitting even better over the coming years. What am I missing? Or is it just that you figure, 'how much better can he get'? :-)
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Postby BigLebowski » Fri Feb 06, 2004 1:41 am

StLrEdBiRdS2004 wrote:I dont know about that Crime Dog, but maybe a .360 55 160


I just don't see this as realistic.

If he hits .360 and is hitting 55 Home Runs, he is getting pitched around like Bonds is now. The only time he gets a pitch to hit is with the bases empty. So if he ever hits .360 with 55 he is only gonna have 90 RBI's and only 425 AB's. Not that Bonds isn't a great player and I would love to have him on my team, but I think Pujols will be more valuable to a fantasy team if he doesn't get to that point. If he stays .345 40 130 , he'll get drafted in the top 5 every year.
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