tgalv wrote:what was the point of the thread? you're trying to trade off some scrubs to some guy and by pulling the blinders over peoples eyes, you want people to say it's a fair trade despite no one having enough information to tell?
The point was to show people like you would jump off a little cliff once they knew it was Ortiz. The fact that Capps has shown he can handle the 8th plus the 9th and is playing better than a name say Papelbon. Everyone is going omg Papelbon 10 times over Capps oh wait Capps > Papelbon when the numbers and points come into play. Hence you use name recognition to form your opinion not actual play.
Look man, I agree that people pee their pants when big names come into question in trades - there's no argument here about that from anybody. One example in a league I'm in: a guy wouldn't trade HanRam when Jeter and Figgins were coming his way. Now according to the numbers he should have accepted that trade and laughed his way to first place. But HanRam was his baby and he couldn't part with him for anything less than Reyes and Pujols combined. It's just how some folks are.
But to the point, Papelbon is better than Capps... according to the numbers.
And Ortiz and Wang are better than Victorino and Capps... in any and every league.
Numbers work fine for the present moment, but when good fantasy managers make deals they take into account the potential of the player, the injury factor, home ballpark, etc... numbers are what it all boils down to but fantasy baseball is about projection rather than regression.
rjforlife wrote:guys with big names have proven year in and year out that they can produce, i.e. ortiz. the guys you dont know have been good but no one can know with any certainty if they will maitain or totally crash, i.e. victorino. thats not to say Victorino can't become a superb player, its just not worth paying for his stats up till now in a trade. simple as that.
And that's it in a nutshell right there. It's not what they've done this year so far, it's what they CAN do and have proved they can do over time.
you have a change of heart or do you not have the stones to stand by what you type?
Oh I have the stones but I don't need to be banned from a website today because of a little punk kid.
There's no reason you can't say it without having to use profanity.
Ursa wrote:
rjforlife wrote:guys with big names have proven year in and year out that they can produce, i.e. ortiz. the guys you dont know have been good but no one can know with any certainty if they will maitain or totally crash, i.e. victorino. thats not to say Victorino can't become a superb player, its just not worth paying for his stats up till now in a trade. simple as that.
And that's it in a nutshell right there. It's not what they've done this year so far, it's what they CAN do and have proved they can do over time.
That's how I see it as well. You can't base all of the value just on this year alone, you have to go and see history, and what Ortiz has done in his career. You can't say that's a fair trade, doesn't matter how poorly Ortiz is doing, or if Capps' numbers are better than Papelbon's.
Numbers alone are just not by any means a good method of judging someones future production, when you make trades you don't get the #'s they've earned up to this point you have to forecast, and big names are a lot easier to forecast and give the most confidence in that forecasting. When Brian Roberts hit 8 HR's in the first month of the season last year, it was completely out of rightfield, and if you traded for him based on the idea that maybe he'd hit 30 for the year you'd of felt quite foolish at the end of the year, even if what you got rid of was a struggling big name.
You never quite know when guys who aren't considered developing stars are just streaking or coming into their own, so unless the guy without the big name has a strong potential filled pedigree it's going to be hard to trade them for big names, even if thus far they've out performed him.
You have to take into account not just current production, but what's the max production you think you can get from a player. You have to weigh the likelihood that said player will continue on this torrid pace to the idea that said struggling player will continue to struggle. In a Victorino Ortiz situation, Victorino would have to continue at the same exact pace or better and Ortiz would have to continue this underachieving pace. Especially in someone like Ortiz's case when he's obviously still seeing the ball and a breakout just seems like it has to come considering he's still hitting for a very good OPS, you'd figure eventually the power has to come.
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by Philly_05 » Sat Jul 07, 2007 2:49 pm 
