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Your thoughts on Guthrie

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Re: Your thoughts on Guthrie

Postby DevilDriver » Sun Jul 08, 2007 6:46 pm

godallahstar wrote:
DevilDriver wrote:Try to trade him for a bat. He's not a complete fluke, but he should regress a lot in the second half. He's a good sell high if you can find someone who thinks he's this good.


and your opinion is based off what exactly?

please share,
because people on this message board are quite annoying,
if you're going to give your opinion at least add some reasoning.

90% of this place is absolutely baseless arguments with uninformed personal opinion thrown around far too often.

the positives?

guthrie has incredible movement on his 2 seam fastball that sits in the mid 90's
and he can dial up his 4 seamer to 97-98 if he needs to,
a really really nice breaking slider and a solid 80+ mph change he can throw for strikes.

he's a very smart pitcher who knows what he is doing,
and really seems to be growing with mazzone on his side.

other than his odd development,
his control has been an issue, but that seems to be much improved.


the negatives?

baltimore. other than leo, it's kind of bleh.

innings. even though he's old for a rookie, he still hasn't thrown tons of innings.
so don't be surprised if at some point he hits a wall with a tired arm.
especially considering he pitched winterball.

he's been a bit lucky, but he's still looking like a #2 type pitcher,
i don't think he's going to regress any more than chris young or danny haren will.


He has one of the lowest BABIPs in MLB and his HR/F is low too. He will regress as more of those balls fall in and the fly balls start turning into HRs. He's already given up 5 HRs in his last 4 starts. According to you though, saying that his performance thus far is unsustainable so he's a good sell high is an absolutely baseless argument with an uninformed personal opinion, right?
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Re: Your thoughts on Guthrie

Postby godallahstar » Sun Jul 08, 2007 9:25 pm

no, that is a fine argument,
but just giving your opinion without the reasoning is not very helpful to people looking for information.

i mean, chris young gives up more flyballs and has less HR allowed,
if guthrie finishes with 20 or so HR allowed it wont hurt him enough to regress all that much.

saying something like "he's not a complete fluke.." implies something pretty harsh.
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Re: Your thoughts on Guthrie

Postby Cobaltred » Sun Jul 08, 2007 10:27 pm

For those of you predicting a 2nd half dropoff by Guthrie, this statistical measure does not agree AT ALL:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/f ... dom/1.html

Go halfway down the page. Guthrie leads baseball in differential between his ERA and his compositeERA (ERA prediction based on peripheral stats).
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