Juan Pierre's Stolen Base Potential in 2004

[d18Mike]

Read an interesting analysis recently which noted that Juan Pierre's gradual reduction in SBs throughout 2003 corresponded with a trend that effected the entire team when Jack McKeon took the helm about 1/4 through the year. The theory is that McKeon is an old school manager who simply won't give the green light to his speedsters quite as readily as Torborg.

Now I remember that Pierre's SBs tailed off dramtically during the last month of the season -- I don't know how that factors in. But the potential McKeon factor over a whole year gives me some pause in terms of drafting Pierre as a means of locking up a near-top finish in the category.

But he still has plenty of years left in his legs -- Pierre, not McKeon.

[CrimeDog]

He'll get 40+, but if you really wanna lock up steals grab Crawford.

[StLrEdBiRdS2004]

i say around 47 steals.

[trevisc]

i'd say both should get close to 50

[Madison]

Pierre's steals by month:

March--2
April----8
May----12
June----16
July-----14
August--5
Sept-----8

Didn't McKeon take over in May? No matter when he took over, by those numbers, I wouldn't be concerned about Pierre's steals. I'm guessing 50 next year.

[baseball genius]

Both should be dominate, but I'd preffer Crawford in a later round.

[kentx12]

Both should be dominate, but I'd preffer Crawford in a later round.

I agree. Pierre will go before I am ready to take him.

[justinA]

He'll get 40+, but if you really wanna lock up steals grab Crawford.

i agree.. Big Lou is gunna be running that team to death, which bodes well for Crawford and Baldelli.. I see Crawford going for 55+, and Baldelli for 30+.