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Rich Hill..... whats going on with this kid

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Re: Rich Hill..... whats going on with this kid

Postby Ender » Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:14 am

BABIP is one of my least favorite of the new sabremetric stats because I depends largely on the pitcher.


Its by far one of the best of the new stats, the thing is you need two years worth of data minimum to draw solid conclusions based on it. Still, nobody maintains a .242 BABIP like he had year to year, so it was painfully obvious it would go up. Its just a matter of how high it should go up.
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Re: Rich Hill..... whats going on with this kid

Postby Rounders » Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:18 am

The two main things that the announcers mentioned...

1) Not varying the speed of his fastball (he was when he was pitching good)
2) Curve ball is sweeping across the plate (was 12-6 when he was pitching good)
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Re: Rich Hill..... whats going on with this kid

Postby dclark0699 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:27 am

Rounders wrote:The two main things that the announcers mentioned...

1) Not varying the speed of his fastball (he was when he was pitching good)
2) Curve ball is sweeping across the plate (was 12-6 when he was pitching good)



I did notice the curve sweeping across when he gave up the grandslam to Dimitri Young...I never really thought about it, but that is a good point. Not staying on top of that pitch will cause it to sweep more, thus staying on a more level plain....leaves more hangers.
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Re: Rich Hill..... whats going on with this kid

Postby Rounders » Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:45 am

Rounders wrote:The two main things that the announcers mentioned...

1) Not varying the speed of his fastball (he was when he was pitching good)
2) Curve ball is sweeping across the plate (was 12-6 when he was pitching good)


Something else that was mentioned after he put up a couple bad starts is that he may be tipping his pitches. Pinella and Hill have watched a lot of tape and haven't been able to find anything.
At the beginning of the year players were getting way out in front of his curve and he was almost unhittable, then everyone started staying back on the curve and were cranking it if it swept across the plate. Gave them the impression that he was tipping something, because the hitters seemed to know when to sit back and wait for the curve.
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Re: Rich Hill..... whats going on with this kid

Postby J35J » Thu Jul 05, 2007 11:02 am

I had him down preseason for...

170 IP
10 W
3.80 ERA
1.22 WHIP
158 SO

...so I'd say he's ahead of my expectations by a little. No disappointment here, though I don't own him at all.
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Re: Rich Hill..... whats going on with this kid

Postby great gretzky » Thu Jul 05, 2007 11:06 am

i was at the game and he did not look good. I can't tell you how many hard line drives he gave up that the fielders made nice plays on. That game could have been much, much worse.

And I know Dmitri is fat and slow, but walking zimmerman wasn't a great move. Load the bases with one out to get to a guy who is hitting .330 and with decent power? I don't really follow that, the whole stadium could just tell the slam was coming.
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Re: Rich Hill..... whats going on with this kid

Postby Dmville » Thu Jul 05, 2007 11:22 am

He's a one trick pony with a the trick pitch being pretty easy to pick up out of his hand. He'll always be able to get out some guys w it, but good MLB hitters will only need an AB or two against him to figure it out IMO.

Maybe some change of speed on the FB will help, but that curve can only be his dominant pitch for so long. Needs to get a halfway decent slider going so when hitters are expecting a breaking ball, they can't just sit on his big ol' curve.
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