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When does a 2 Start pitcher outweigh a stud P?

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When does a 2 Start pitcher outweigh a stud P?

Postby cwrtlm » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:31 pm

In a H2H weekly points league does a decent starter with 2 starts outweigh a stud P who only has one start? twice as many chances to get innings, K's and W's, but also twice as many chances to give up hits, walks and Runs? So what are you alls thoughts on it. I know alot depends on matchups, just for arguments sake they both have equally nice matchups.
C- Hundley, Iannetta
1b- Wallace
2b- Barney/Barmes
3b- J. Lopez
CO- G. Sanchez
SS- Tulo
MI- Castro
OF- Bay, Hart, Pagan, Smith, Francisco, Ankiel
U- C. Ross(DL), Cantu
P- Carpent, Billings, Volquez, Marcum, Norris, J. Vazquez, Westbrook, Wolf, E Rogers
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Re: When does a 2 Start pitcher outweigh a stud P?

Postby hot4tx » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:58 pm

Also alot depends on scoring. Some leagues have very little points (either positive or negative) tied to IP, Ks, ERs when compared to how many points a pitcher gets for a W or L. In this case I'd take a mediocre 2-start pitcher over two bad opponents before a very good pitcher with one bad opponent. But I would start the very good pitcher facing one good opponent over the 2-start mediocre pitcher facing two good opponents. The thought there is that even a mediocre pitcher has a good chance for 2 wins over the 2 bad opponents, but has a good chance for 2 losses against to good opponents.

The "stud" pitchers like Santana, Peavy, etc I wouldn't bench under any circumstances and if your league scoring is more heavily weighted for the IP, Ks, ERs, HA, etc than wins and losses I would probably stick with the very good pitcher unless he has 1 tough matchup and the mediocre guy has two very good matchups.
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Re: When does a 2 Start pitcher outweigh a stud P?

Postby cwrtlm » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:05 pm

In my H2H points league scoring is as follows:
2pts = Inning
1 pt= K
10 pts =W/Save
5 pts= CG
-1 for ER
-.5 for Hits/walks
I see it as a big bonus for inning eaters and high K guys. There is no negative for the L, so that helps in that instance. a good reliever can score 15 points an appearance if he strikes out the side and gets the save. While a Starter can have a good game and get a no decision and score less than that. Any other thoughts? Who really are the Must start guys? (pitcher wise) Santana, Peavy, Haren, Sabathia, Hamels, Sheets?
C- Hundley, Iannetta
1b- Wallace
2b- Barney/Barmes
3b- J. Lopez
CO- G. Sanchez
SS- Tulo
MI- Castro
OF- Bay, Hart, Pagan, Smith, Francisco, Ankiel
U- C. Ross(DL), Cantu
P- Carpent, Billings, Volquez, Marcum, Norris, J. Vazquez, Westbrook, Wolf, E Rogers
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Re: When does a 2 Start pitcher outweigh a stud P?

Postby deerayfan072 » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:18 pm

Cliff Lee was pretty nice spot start last week for me in a weekly league
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Re: When does a 2 Start pitcher outweigh a stud P?

Postby knapplc » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:20 pm

The answer - almost NEVER.

This is a great question, and one that has confused a lot of people for a long time. Early in my baseball infancy I ALWAYS tried to load up on two-start pitchers - more = better, right? In most cases, it's actually wrong.

I saw the light after reading a great article by Tristan Cockroft called Myth of two-start pitchers two years ago.

This article will answer this question, and is a MUST READ.
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Re: When does a 2 Start pitcher outweigh a stud P?

Postby IllinoisBandit » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:47 pm

knapplc wrote:The answer - almost NEVER.

This is a great question, and one that has confused a lot of people for a long time. Early in my baseball infancy I ALWAYS tried to load up on two-start pitchers - more = better, right? In most cases, it's actually wrong.

I saw the light after reading a great article by Tristan Cockroft called Myth of two-start pitchers two years ago.

This article will answer this question, and is a MUST READ.


Neat article.

I'm playing a in few leagues with weekly lineup changes this year. I usually check out the 2 start pitchers every week and every once in a while I bite on one. This week I'm liking Jeff Suppan @WAS and @PIT A LOT, and he happened to be available.

Similarly, I'll take a mediocre starter with a favorable matchup over a slightly better pitcher against say Boston. I'm liking Bush @WAS this week, for instance.

Personally, I don't think it does me much good or harm over the course of a season. I just happen to have enough time on my hands to overthink things.
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Re: When does a 2 Start pitcher outweigh a stud P?

Postby Starkmadfan » Mon Jul 02, 2007 7:11 pm

knapplc wrote:The answer - almost NEVER.

This is a great question, and one that has confused a lot of people for a long time. Early in my baseball infancy I ALWAYS tried to load up on two-start pitchers - more = better, right? In most cases, it's actually wrong.

I saw the light after reading a great article by Tristan Cockroft called Myth of two-start pitchers two years ago.

This article will answer this question, and is a MUST READ.



That's a great link there. ;-D I agree, there was a time I'd get worked up when I see my H2h opponent collect WW 2 start pitchers to face me, until I started seeing them net lower points combined than my single start pitchers, and in some cases, even go into negative points. A stud one start pitcher can generate up to 30 H2H points, which whereas take Andy Pettitte just last week for example, in his two starts, he netted negative 0.67 points......

Sure, its intimidating to see your opponent line up 12 starts to your 7 or so, but I'd rather line up with one start aces any time and take my chances.

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Re: When does a 2 Start pitcher outweigh a stud P?

Postby Philliebuster » Mon Jul 02, 2007 8:34 pm

My rule is that a 2 start pitcher never outweigh's a "stud" P.
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