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Jorge Julio.. 45+ saves?!

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Postby mattusd » Fri Feb 06, 2004 4:14 pm

Wow... Jorge Julio getting 45 saves... that's the most ridiculous thing i've heard all day....

okay, first of all, do you know how hard it is to get 45 saves? very few pitchers do it... usually like only 2 a year get 45 or come close to it.

Secondly, the orioles signed some people, this is true... but so did everyone else in their division... their rotation is atrocious (rodrigo lopez at #2 w/ his 92 mph fastball w/ no movement... and kurt ainsworth, a guy who hasn't thrown any innings in the big leagues or shown any kind of dominance at #3.... i don't even have to mention the no-names at the end of the rotation that will probably be seeing the bullpen and the minors for stretches during the season.)

basically my point is that the orioles are still a below-average team... projecting them to win 80 is even a little far-fetched considering they can't get anyone out.
Mike DeJean is a chump, and Julio didn't show much last year besides the fact that he can hit triple digits.... projecting a guy who could lose his job to get 45 is absurd.

I think it's really possible that the orioles could finish last this year behind the devil rays... yeah i said it... it had to be said.

if you're looking for sleeper closers... look to Danny Kolb or Francisco Cordero, who could be had for a lot cheaper.
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Postby justinA » Fri Feb 06, 2004 4:21 pm

julio had 36 last year with an even worse team, maybe 1 better starter, but no offense whatsoever. O and, he wont lost his job, cuz there is no one to take his job!..
The Oreos!
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Postby mattusd » Fri Feb 06, 2004 4:40 pm

Julio should've lost his job last year... but didn't because the manager was Mike Hargrove, a manager I know well.... Grover always stays loyal to his teams closer.

predicting 36 for Julio is even too much b/c first, we don't know what Lee Mazzilli is going to do w/ the situation if/when Julio starts blowing saves in chunks like he did last year.

And, as was said before, offense does not = save opportunities. the fact is their pitching staff is still horrendous... that's not just starters, I mean the whole staff. there's no logical reason whatsoever to think that he will be given enough opportunities to get a larger number of saves.

No one was really there to take the job last year, but even though DeJean is terrible, he still has experience, and I guarantee he will be given a look at some point in the season because of Julio's tendency to try to through it through the wall instead of pounding people inside like he should.
Julio is one of the most painful closers to watch because of the good counts he wastes and the walks he gives up. if he wants to be successful, he needs to learn how to pitch, something he hasn't done yet. while, again, Dejean has very little left in the tank, he still has that sinker and will have an opportunity.

the Orioles are starting to resemble the Rangers and I think that translates into 75 wins at best this year.

When a closer gets 45 saves, it means that he is a good closer, a great one actually. Only the greats reach that number, a lot of guys get around 35 here and there (Kelvim Escobar in 2002, and even Rocky Biddle last year), but getting 45 means not blowing your opportunities at all... something Julio won't do because he is far from being considered an elite closer.

but if you want Julio... go ahead. I've had him the last two years and have monitored his stats closely... I'm just trying to give you a reasoned analysis of why he's probably going to spiral lower down the list of quality closers. he comes at too high a price, when better, more efficient, talented pitchers could be had for less.
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Postby NZF » Fri Feb 06, 2004 9:43 pm

[quote="mattusd"]Wow... Jorge Julio getting 45 saves... that's the most ridiculous thing i've heard all day....

okay, first of all, do you know how hard it is to get 45 saves? very few pitchers do it... usually like only 2 a year get 45 or come close to it.

Jose Mesa got 45 saves in 2002. That kinda blows your argument to pieces.

Julio will bounce back this season. The guy has a huge upside.
His ERA and WHIP will be significantly better than last year. His 2002 numbers were not a fluke. 45 may be stretching it but IMO 40 saves is very possible and he will come cheap by the sound of things.
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Postby aardvarks » Fri Feb 06, 2004 11:05 pm

If Baltimore was in the Central I'd give them a chance to win 80 games.
But I just don't see it in the east. The O's have improved there offense, but the Yanks have reloaded, the Sox are better than there '03 team the Jays have improved to IMO they may win 90. The D-Rays also will be better
70-75 wins at best and possibly a 5th place finish. As previouly stated how many save chances that creates will be a crapshoot.
However: The Brew crew, the Pirates the Reds and any # of other teams will match or beat there win total.
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Postby tddf30 » Sat Feb 07, 2004 12:15 am

Well one thing is that last year what offense did the O's have, of course he was going to have a ton of save opps. i mean the O's game was either close or they were blown out, i am sure that with the help of the new offense that they have picked up they will win more games but they will be of the blow out variety. So i figure that Julio will only have around another 35 saves this year
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 07, 2004 1:39 pm

Before anyone picks Jorge, they might want to consider this:

http://rotoworld.com/content/playerpage ... LB&id=8271
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Sat Feb 07, 2004 1:50 pm

I think that he'll be okay. Certainly worth a late flier. In the majors, the guy has almost a 2:1 k:bb ratio. In the minors, it was better. He's young, he's talented, and he has no real competition.

I'll take him in round 12ish.
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Postby mikcou » Sat Feb 07, 2004 4:03 pm

Absolutely Adequate wrote:I think that he'll be okay. Certainly worth a late flier. In the majors, the guy has almost a 2:1 k:bb ratio. In the minors, it was better. He's young, he's talented, and he has no real competition.

I'll take him in round 12ish.


I agree definetly worth a late round pick ;-D
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Postby Sticky Spice » Sun Feb 08, 2004 10:50 am

Well I don't think any of us are saying don't take him late. The point of this thread was can he earn 45 saves. :-b

I don't think DeJean can take his job. I don't think anyone can. It's his to lose. I just think there's a decent chance he could blow it.

As far as 45 saves, he COULD do it. I mean, didn't Mike Williams and Jose Mesa almost do it in 2002? But to actually project, and then depend on, anyone at 45 saves is extremely risky.
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