you dont have to be a "elite" team to get save opps. Look at the dodger for one, granted julio is no Gagne--but teams that dont score a lot of runs like the dodgers, and the padres get quite a few opps themselves. btw, you guys should be talking about dotel, hoffman before a guy like julio.
The more save chances Julio gets, the more opportunity for him to screw up big time. He's honestly probably the worst closer in baseball, but his save totals keep him valuable for fantasy. He has a terrible ERA and WHIP, doesn't get a lot of K's, and blows a lot of saves (worse converted save % than Biddle ). I'd stay away from him, anybody half decent could probably steal his job...
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Trying to guess how many save opps someone will get is nearly insane. You might as well have a chimp throw darts at a wall papered in bingo cards. It's luck!
I think projecting the Orioles at 90 wins is far too high of an expectation, but for my example, let's take it. A team last year that won a similar number of games was the Florida Marlins who won 91. Braden Looper had just 28 saves despite pitching in 74 games and ending 64 of them. I couldn't find how many saves he blew, but let's be liberal and say 8 big ones. Now let's say he converted all those AND give him Urbina's 6 from the last few weeks in September. That equals 42 saves assuming he converted every single opportunity.
Senor guest brought up another good point which is that Jorge almost lost his job last year.
DeJean has a great shot. Fundamentally, Julio is a crap pitcher. He had a fantastic rookie season in terms of WHIP and ERA, but he was lousy in those areas last year, and I checked out his minor league stats last night--almost invariably a 4+ ERA and 1.30+ WHIP over a long nimor league career. Not what you want from a closer, either fantasy or real life.
I stand by my projection that Julio will either pitch himself out of job or get traded to a contender to serve as a set-up guy after the Oriloes are 20 games behind Boston and New York. The O's are smart enough to realize he is not their long-term solution if they want to morph into a truely competitive team.
I agree that save opps are hard to predict. Look at my crappy Rangers last year. Urbina led the league in saves at the All Star break. Wouldn't think that would you? Lol.
I'd say 35-40 is realistic and what to bank on. 40+ is gravy for having to put up with the era/whip damage.
Someone mentioned that if he got 45 saves, he'd be in Gagne/Smoltz/Wagner territory. No he won't. He doesn't have the stellar whip/era/k numbers to put him in that territory. That would be like someone stealing 55 bases and hitting .240. He wouldn't equate to Pierre or Crawford.
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