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Jorge Julio.. 45+ saves?!

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Jorge Julio.. 45+ saves?!

Postby justinA » Wed Feb 04, 2004 4:23 pm

ok.. heres what im thinking.. Jorge Julio.. had 36 saves last year with the O's only winning 71 games. That is over 50% of the teams wins. The Orioles obviously improved with the signings of Miggy, Javy, and Raffy, so I am thinking they will break 81 wins, and possibly win 90 if all goes well. 90 wins would equate to Julio having 45 saves by last years numbers, but I think that would lead to even more than that esp. with the shaky staff. That may sound odd, but I think most of the O's games will be like those 9-8 nail-biters because our offense will score alot, but our staff will give up alot. I dunno I may be crazy, but I am honestly expecting atleast 40 saves outta julio.. maybe even high 40's.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Feb 04, 2004 4:28 pm

Wins do not equal save opportunities.
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Postby AuburnTigers » Wed Feb 04, 2004 4:49 pm

I see your reasoning, but I think 45+ may be stretching it for Julio. He gives up a lot of runs for a closer. If you say he gets 45+ saves then that puts him with Gagne, Smoltz, and Wagner. He is not even close to being in their class
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Postby NZF » Wed Feb 04, 2004 4:58 pm

I agree Julio is in for one hell of a season and 40+ saves is a very real possiblility with a vastly imroved ERA and WHIP. Even before the Orioles went shopping to strengthen up their offense I expected him to bounce back this season from his second year slump. If you can call a 36 save season a slump (7 losses though).

He has got an unbelievable upside. His 2002 season was freakish for a just turned 23 year old and look for a major bounce back this season.
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Postby mikcou » Wed Feb 04, 2004 5:04 pm

I think that 35-40 saves is attainable but I dont see him getting many more than that
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Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Feb 04, 2004 5:08 pm

who do they have in their starting rotation?
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Postby NZF » Wed Feb 04, 2004 5:08 pm

AuburnTigers wrote:I see your reasoning, but I think 45+ may be stretching it for Julio. He gives up a lot of runs for a closer. If you say he gets 45+ saves then that puts him with Gagne, Smoltz, and Wagner. He is not even close to being in their class


The kid is still only 24. Have a look at his 2002 numbers. That wasn't a fluke and is in the Smoltz / Wagner class. 2nd year slumps are very common so expect a big turnaround on his runs allowed in 2004.

He really does have filthy stuff, just ask Nomar, Manny, Jeter and Soriano. They have gone a combined 3 for 30 against him.
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Postby Bo Knows » Wed Feb 04, 2004 5:17 pm

wow, that 3/30 info sure adds some perspective
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Postby NZF » Wed Feb 04, 2004 5:22 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:who do they have in their starting rotation?


Starting rotation is only a one piece of many pieces in the pie for a closer. Relievers are very important. Offense even more so.

Look at the Phillies rotation last year and how many saves did they get in comparison to chances?

Anyway if you look into the Orioles rotation it is very very promising. Excluding Lopez the rest of that lineup could each win 12 games or more. There is some very real talent there. That's maybe 45 save opps for Julio without factoring in Rodrigo!

Food for thought.
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Postby gypsyspot » Wed Feb 04, 2004 5:42 pm

The 4+ ERA is a little dangerous, but I still think he has a chance at 40.
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