RocketsDWM wrote:I still dont think they are out of either race. They will have a post All-Star surge and perhaps capture the Wildcard. But Cashman has stated (forget where I read it) that they will stand pat at the deadline.
I don't know if he'll be singing that tune if it's July 31st and they still are 11 games back. They have some young stars coming up and this could be the year they work to get the core of the team a little younger or at least get rid of the old guys and work on getting young stars in the offseason. Whether they have the stones to do that is the question. It really wouldn't be dismantling the team, it would be freeing up bad salary to give huge contracts to better players. It's almost a good thing they are in this situation, because they wouldn't be able to do it if they were in a playoff run. This is their rare opportunity to find a team to field for the next 10 years.
But, if they are 5-6 games back they'll probably be buyers. Crazy how a 5 game turn can make such a difference.
I agree with the above poster, the majority of their contracts are too heavy and large for other teams to take up. Add in all of the players with no trade clauses and their situation trade-wise doesn't look so good unless they give up their prospects. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Damon, Abreu, and Farnsworth all shipped out in trades in the coming month. I, for one, want to see them get on the Texeira train and get him from Texas (both as a fan and fantasy owner... )
OgreBallz wrote:However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Damon, Abreu, and Farnsworth all shipped out in trades in the coming month. I, for one, want to see them get on the Texeira train and get him from Texas (both as a fan and fantasy owner... )
Well, that would be some pretty heavy selling. Damon and Abreu would automatically would be in the top 5 players on the market and Farnsworth would be valued pretty high as well. I'm not saying they are going to trade every single player on their team. That's impossible. But, to think that they'd be the ones trading players like Damon, Abreu and Farnsworth is pretty amazing. I don't remember the last time the Yankees sold.... I don't think they are going to get on the Texeira train though unless they can within 5-6 games by the end of July.
While it would be heavy selling, Farnsworth has really worn out his welcome with his antics in the last week. Plus, I would think that, if the Yanks were willing to bite on some of his salary, there would be some teams who would take a chance on him as a set-up guy, maybe even a closer. Abreu is in the last year of his contract so that makes for a definite sell. Finally, Damon does have a partial no-trade list (12 teams total) that he would not accept moves too. Melky has been doing an "adequate" job there so, while it would be tough to move him due to his injuries, I could see it happening. I also don't see them moving all three of them, but I really expect to see Farnsworth definitely moved and Abreu and Damon as maybes...
Hmmm. A few thoughts on the Yankees...I will even try and drop my "New England Bias" as a Mainer....
1) Clemens was never going to be the SAVIOR of that team...I think some of his decline physically was hidden by the NL lineups. Not to any great degree but he certainly isn't just blowing away the opposition against AL East lineups 2) I don't know how massive a run they will make post all-star break. They just went on a huge tear 2 weeks ago in which they won 10 or 11 straight....not many teams do that more than once a year...if they do, those teams are usually 100 game winners and NYY is not winning 100 games this year nor is anyone else in the AL East. 3) They don't have a lot of pitching depth and they don't really have dominating starters. Wang is a strange case as he still manages to do well with a very low strikeout rate but Mussina and Pettite aren't starters who are likely to miss a lot of bats at this point. 4) The age of the starters combined with their inability to miss bats gets their pitch counts up, forces Torre to burn through his bullpen (bullpen management seems to be the knock on Torre) but what can you do when most the guys you got will rarely ever give you more than 6 innings and often not even that.
The Yankees are in a tough situation. I think they can probably slug their way to the wild card but I doubt if we see a deep run in the playoffs. We'll see, I don't know how they can win the division. But messages that say "MAYBE we can count them out if they are 10 games back at the beginning of september" just aren't that realistic. 11 games is a significant margin. If NY goes on a run right after the break and the Red Sox start to slump then it's possible but a deep rotation with 2-3 power arms (If Clemens is a power arm then I guess Schilling still is as well) and a fairly strong offense is a significant obstacle.
I'd like to throw in my 2 pennies on some of the names mentioned:
Farnsworth - He'll probably get traded even if the Yankees are back in the race at the deadline. Like OgreBallz said, between the comments he made on the radio after Clemens was signed to him acting pissy when he was taken out of a game after allowing two baserunners in the same inning a few days ago, I think the Yankees are done with him. True he's making a lot of money for a middle reliever and still has another year on his contract, but he's quite tradeable.
Damon - Not going anywhere no matter what. He still has 2.5 years left on his contract. Any trade the Yankees could make for him would involve eating most of his contract and not getting much in return. He's worth more if they keep him and he can get healthy and produce.
Giambi - I'm sure the Yankees would want to trade him but there are two reasons why I don't think that would happen. A) He's hurt. Who knows when he'll be back. Probably August. If he comes back and has a strong last month and a half, his trade value gets a boost. B) Nobody knows what's going on with A-Rod. If he signs somewhere else, the Yankees almost need to keep Giambi because otherwise the lineup lacks a real power threat.
Matsui - I highly doubt he gets moved. Besides having a full no trade clause, he's been the least of the Yankees problems this year. Not to mention I'm sure he generates a good amount of money for the team (notice those Japanese ads in left field at the Stadium?)
Abreu - I wouldn't be absolutely shocked if he was traded, but I don't think he will. Maybe they could do what they did with Sheffield, pick up his option and trade him in the offseason. But the difference is last year the Yankees replaced Sheffield with Abreu in right field but they don't have anyone to replace Abreu. While the Yankees top hitting prospect is a RFer (Jose Tabata) he's only in A+ ball and won't be major league ready next year. The Yankees may just hold on to Abreu since the only good FA RF who could replace him is Ichiro, but Ichiro is on the wrong side of 30 and will probably get a 4 or 5 year contract from someone. I don't believe that Abreu has all of a sudden lost it. I think he'd be one of the top free agents this offseason so it would make sense to just keep him. I believe the free agent class after the 2008 season is quite good.
Clemens - Meh, seems pointless to trade him. They won't get a decent young player for him, they probably won't get anyone to eat much of his salary and he's not blocking anyone the Yankees have in the minors.
So that's my opinion for what it's worth. I don't think the Yankees will do too much at the deadline no matter where they are in the standings at that time. If they do some major retooling, I think it will be this winter and only after they know what A-Rod is going to do. Bad contracts or not, the lineup can't afford trading away their other bats if A-Rod walks.