This Year's Podsednik: Which No-Name Will Steal 40?

[grammysboy]

A healthy DESI RELEFORD

right here in my own back yard! yes he might! Should be able to get him in the 20th round or later, or for no more than $5 in a draft. He'll go for a little more here because we have several Royals fans in our league.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

Everyone is offering the same retreads. The only name that is new with 40 plus potential that I have read about is Reyes on the Mets. No one mentioned Baldelli on Tampa
Having said tha, there will be a rookie who will stael 35-40. pay attention to the spring training lineups by the 2nd week of March

I wonder why you think it is so certain that this will happen. It seems like a pretty rare event to me to have a rookie steal 35+ bases in a season. Anybody know how often that has happened over the last 20 years or so?

[Grouperman941]

It seems like a pretty rare event to me to have a rookie steal 35+ bases in a season. Anybody know how often that has happened over the last 20 years or so?

I checked this out. Over the last 30 years or so, 2-3 players on average have stolen more than 30 bases in their first full season. Not all I counted qualified as rookies, but they were first-year full time players.

I counted a few that had 20-something playing part time one year and followed that with a huge jump the next year.

I picked this from sources by hand, so I have a sloppy written list and not an easy way to count. I studied back to '82 carefully. I suspect I missed quite a few before that by not going year to year.

'93-'03 22 players
'83-'92 28
'69-82 25 at least

I went back to '69 so I could post that both Barry (36) and Bobby (45) Bonds did it.

49 of those players had 35+.
Many more had 20+ in their first year.

Vince Coleman had 110 in 1985. Marquis Grissom had 76 in '91.

Stolen bases are my favorite par of baseball.

[BigLebowski]

If he gets a full time gig, Jenkins-injury, or Greive-Stinkin it up, or Pod/sen/dink-wakin up. (That was for Bell)

Brady Clark has the wheels to steal a ton of bases.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

It seems like a pretty rare event to me to have a rookie steal 35+ bases in a season. Anybody know how often that has happened over the last 20 years or so?

I checked this out. Over the last 30 years or so, 2-3 players on average have stolen more than 30 bases in their first full season. Not all I counted qualified as rookies, but they were first-year full time players.

I counted a few that had 20-something playing part time one year and followed that with a huge jump the next year.

I picked this from sources by hand, so I have a sloppy written list and not an easy way to count. I studied back to '82 carefully. I suspect I missed quite a few before that by not going year to year.

'93-'03 22 players
'83-'92 28
'69-82 25 at least

I went back to '69 so I could post that both Barry (36) and Bobby (45) Bonds did it.

49 of those players had 35+.
Many more had 20+ in their first year.

Vince Coleman had 110 in 1985. Marquis Grissom had 76 in '91.

Stolen bases are my favorite par of baseball.

Wow, that's a lot more likely than I thought. I had started to look at this using the official definition of rookie and was finding a similar trend. So, even if you restrict it that way, there is likely to be one or more official rookies who steals 35 or more bases.

[grammysboy]

A couple longshots come to mind..as it's not certain either will play alot or even be needed at the ML level? (On the bright side neither should require a draft pick) Willy Taveras, (Houston I think?) and Essix Snead (NYM?...a longer shot maybe)?

Sneed is truly a burner! He's set records for SB at every level he's played. There's only one problem...he can't hit. His chances of making a MLB team are very slim, unless someone wants to carry an extra player as a utility runner. At the Cardinal Winter Warm-up two years ago, they were really high on him. I asked Al Hrbrowsky if the kid's name would be better for a shortstop? "E-six Sneed" Al didn't get it!

[allyg]

dont even waste time with just a basestealer (except for Pierre)...they help you nowhere but steals and they seems to come in bunches so right when you bench them, they'll steal 10 bags that week and you'll be kicking yourself. Just add value to a guy that is a five tool player over a guy with similar numbers but doesnt run. Guys like Carlos Lee, Luis Matos, Coery Patterson and Abreu can do it all. You get enough guys like that on your team and you are set. It is balance that wins these leagues and not strength in just one category. If you load up in swipes with one burner, you will surely pay the price in the other categories.

[grammysboy]

Its no mystery that first or second year players steal more bases than more established players. At rookie salaries, management has very little to lose if a player pulls a hammie or sprains ankle. That player isn't the one putting the people in the seats. The interesting thing to notice is how quickly SBs drop after a player signs a big contract. A-Rod is still probably capable of swiping 30-40, but the "big dogs" in Texas are not going to risk injuring their star player or their big investment. In the final annalysis, everything comes back to money. An injured A-Rod means fewer fans at the park, so don't take any risks with him!

[Madison]

Ramon Nivar could be a very nice source of steals if he lands the center field job in Texas during spring training. Let him sleep quietly though.

Would that bump Nix to the bench, or would they still find a spot for him? I have him as a potential starter in an 18 team keeper league and I don't want him to lose a bunch of AB's

Seems Mench's health is in question last I read. Might not be 100% at the beginning of the year, so both Nivar and Nix could be in the opening day lineup. Hard to say right now, but Nivar will be there in spring training so he should be fun to watch.

[Budworth22]

Carl Crawford for 70+ man. Mark it down. I wonder what kind of odds I could get wit him stealing 100?! Guys Baldelli isn't thr real D-Rays story. It's Crawford.