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Jay Bruce Watch - solid in AAA - look for him in Sept?

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Jay Bruce Watch - solid in AAA - look for him in Sept?

Postby in10s » Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:47 am

OK, so it is only five games since he was moved up, and you can't judge a player based on a hot streak. But look at Jay Bruce now in AA. First game was bad, 0 for 5 with 4 Ks, maybe jitters. But since then:

4 Games
10 for 18 with a walk, 3 Ks
2 doubles
3 HRs
1 for 2 stolen bases

He looks like a top 5 prospect, not to mention the chance to play in that hitter friendly park in Cincy.
Last edited by in10s on Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:05 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Jay Bruce Watch - Tearing up AA

Postby jnormy » Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:35 am

I drafted him last year in my keeper league's minors draft, and I couldn't be more excited. This guy can rake, and the prospect of him playing half his games in Cincy is niiiiiiice. ;D
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Re: Jay Bruce Watch

Postby in10s » Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:06 pm

The original title of this thread was: "Jay Bruce Watch - Tearing up AA" I just edited to get rid of the tearing up part. More like AA tearing him up now. Last 6 games:

3 for 24
3 walks
8 Ks
1 doubles
1 HRs
0 for 1 stolen bases

I even said in my first post in the thread: "you can't judge a player based on a hot streak." So why did I get my hopes up so high on such a small sample? I still love Bruce's potential and think he is a top prospect. (You can't judge bad potential on a small sample either.) I'll still be watching. But I think I let him finish out the season in AA and look at his body of work at that point.

Someday I'll learn baseball is a marathon, not a sprint...
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Re: Jay Bruce Watch

Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Jul 03, 2007 8:32 pm

in10s wrote:The original title of this thread was: "Jay Bruce Watch - Tearing up AA" I just edited to get rid of the tearing up part. More like AA tearing him up now. Last 6 games:

3 for 24
3 walks
8 Ks
1 doubles
1 HRs
0 for 1 stolen bases

I even said in my first post in the thread: "you can't judge a player based on a hot streak." So why did I get my hopes up so high on such a small sample? I still love Bruce's potential and think he is a top prospect. (You can't judge bad potential on a small sample either.) I'll still be watching. But I think I let him finish out the season in AA and look at his body of work at that point.

Someday I'll learn baseball is a marathon, not a sprint...




He is like any other player that is 20 years old, he will have some great streaks and then some terrible streaks. I imagine at the end of the year, his AA numbers will still look very, very good.
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Re: Jay Bruce Watch

Postby RynoDyno » Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:37 am

Agreed, you have to expect streakiness with these young guys.

Since your 2nd post, he's gone 6 for 8 with 4 doubles and 2 walks, no K's.

Keep it all big picture with prospects and even major league players will fall prey to streaks. Anyway, the kid will be good.
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Re: Jay Bruce Watch

Postby stevethumb » Mon Jul 09, 2007 7:47 pm

does anyone know when jbruce has to be put on the reds 40 man roster ?
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Re: Jay Bruce Watch

Postby in10s » Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:40 pm

stevethumb wrote:does anyone know when jbruce has to be put on the reds 40 man roster ?


I'm not sure I understand the question, but I think the answer is not before October 2008 unless he is called up to the majors.

I don't know all of the ins/outs of transactions, but I don't think a minor leaguer ever HAS to be put on the 40 man Roster during the season, unless you want to call them up to the majors.

If you don't intend to call a player up, the only time I know that you have to put someone on the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. And the Rule 5 draft is only in the offseason, so I think you can wait till after the season to put them on the 40 man roster in that case.

As for the Rule 5 draft, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_Leag ... ansactions it says: "If a player not on a 40-man roster has spent three years with a minor-league contract originally signed when 19 or older or 4 years when signed before the age of 19, he is eligible to be chosen by any team in the rule 5 draft during the offseason."

The goal of Rule 5 is to protect the minor leaguer so they don't get "stuck" in an organization that doesn't like him enough to put him on the 40 man roster, but likes him too much to let him go.

Jay Bruce was signed at 19 years of age or older. (I think.) He is currently in his second season. He isn't eligible for Rule 5 draft until after the 2008 baseball season. So, he would have to go on the 40 man roster in late 2008 or be open to other teams at the 2008/2009 Rule 5 draft.

Someone help me if I missed something.
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Re: Jay Bruce Watch

Postby stevethumb » Tue Jul 10, 2007 12:01 pm

that info was what i was looking for...IF the reds signed him at age 19 and this is his 2nd professional yr then he doesnt have to be put on the 40 man roster until after 08 season...i was curious because occasionally teams will not promote a minor leaguer to the majors if he is not on the 40 man (they would have to cut someone) however in bruce's case his talent may demand that the reds play him in 07
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Re: Jay Bruce Watch

Postby in10s » Tue Jul 10, 2007 12:59 pm

stevethumb wrote:that info was what i was looking for...IF the reds signed him at age 19 and this is his 2nd professional yr then he doesnt have to be put on the 40 man roster until after 08 season...i was curious because occasionally teams will not promote a minor leaguer to the majors if he is not on the 40 man (they would have to cut someone) however in bruce's case his talent may demand that the reds play him in 07


Glad to help. The Wikipedia article is great for the waiver rules, and from milb.com I found out he was 19 when he started playing. Not sure of his age when he signed.

But my guess is that you won't seem him in the bigs this year. Since they don't have to put him on the 40 man roster, and he needs to mature some more, I think he stays in the minors all year. Assuming no injuries and continued performance, next year, he gets an invite to spring training, starts the season in AAA, and either a mid year or September call up.

But that is just one man's guess. Given how messed up the Reds are, you never know.
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Re: Jay Bruce Watch

Postby rmande09 » Wed Jul 11, 2007 1:20 pm

I'm nearly 100% certain he signed when he was 18 years old.
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