Top 10 2b,How do you see it? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Top 10 2b,How do you see it?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Feb 04, 2004 2:25 pm

stabone76 wrote:
Erboes wrote:Miller Park is good for hitters. As bad as they've been they've put up good offensive numbers.

I was looking at the Forecasters top 10 2b's going into last season and it looked like this:

Soriano
Kent
Castillo
Vidro
Durham
Walker
Boone
Alomar
Hairston
Giles

Notice Boone is seventh. Why was he seventh? Because he came off of a normal year. He has a great year and now I'm "nuts" because I have him fourth? Come on, guys, try to be ahead of the curve from time to time instead of reacting to these things.


You talk yourself in circles and dont make any sense... you play on Boone's rank for last year... Where do you see your boy Giles? so you think its unrealistic for boone to go from 7 to 2 but it is okay for Giles to go from 10 to two, after having a worse season


Actually, I couldnt agree more with erboes. His posts make perfect sence to me. Maybe its because Im a value drafter, but Boone is blacklisted on my cheat sheets. No way can I get value with him in the 2nd rd.
Notice - I never mentioned anything about production. Boone may very well outhit Giles, but will it be by so much that he demands to be taken 3-4 rds earlier? Im saying no.
Image
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertPick 3 ChampionSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5694
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby stabone76 » Wed Feb 04, 2004 2:30 pm

Erboes wrote:
My point is that I don't think last season was Boone's "norm". It was his career high in SB's and his second best season in homers and RBI's and his third best in average.

but defending what to me is fairly logical drives me nuts sometimes.


You are still talking in circles... you say things about boone having his "third best BA", second in hr etc. saying that is a career and not to be expected to be the norm. Now you have GIles who set career highs in like EVERYTHING and HIM you expect to improve upon last year.????

and as far as defending what is fairly logical driving you nutz, now you know how i feel talking to you
stabone76
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 309
Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Wisconsin

Postby stabone76 » Wed Feb 04, 2004 2:32 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
stabone76 wrote:
Erboes wrote:Miller Park is good for hitters. As bad as they've been they've put up good offensive numbers.

I was looking at the Forecasters top 10 2b's going into last season and it looked like this:

Soriano
Kent
Castillo
Vidro
Durham
Walker
Boone
Alomar
Hairston
Giles

Notice Boone is seventh. Why was he seventh? Because he came off of a normal year. He has a great year and now I'm "nuts" because I have him fourth? Come on, guys, try to be ahead of the curve from time to time instead of reacting to these things.


You talk yourself in circles and dont make any sense... you play on Boone's rank for last year... Where do you see your boy Giles? so you think its unrealistic for boone to go from 7 to 2 but it is okay for Giles to go from 10 to two, after having a worse season


Actually, I couldnt agree more with erboes. His posts make perfect sence to me. Maybe its because Im a value drafter, but Boone is blacklisted on my cheat sheets. No way can I get value with him in the 2nd rd.
Notice - I never mentioned anything about production. Boone may very well outhit Giles, but will it be by so much that he demands to be taken 3-4 rds earlier? Im saying no.


Okay Cornbread, here is a question.. who are your top five picks overall????
stabone76
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 309
Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Wisconsin

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Feb 04, 2004 2:37 pm

Its an interesting quesion, stabone. Considering that the first few rds of a draft are going to have very little added value, I rarely put much emphasis on those rds. I will generally draft the best available while avoiding guys I think are overpriced in rds 1-3. Good enough?
Image
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertPick 3 ChampionSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5694
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Guest » Wed Feb 04, 2004 2:46 pm

stabone76 wrote:
Erboes wrote:
My point is that I don't think last season was Boone's "norm". It was his career high in SB's and his second best season in homers and RBI's and his third best in average.

but defending what to me is fairly logical drives me nuts sometimes.


You are still talking in circles... you say things about boone having his "third best BA", second in hr etc. saying that is a career and not to be expected to be the norm. Now you have GIles who set career highs in like EVERYTHING and HIM you expect to improve upon last year.????

and as far as defending what is fairly logical driving you nutz, now you know how i feel talking to you


Can't really make that comparison as last year was Giles' first full year. At 25 he is expected to improve on his numbers. Boone is 34 and has been around for a while. I'm not saying Boone can't repeat last yr, although he put up MVP caliber numbers and I would expect a slight decline, especially when you look at his 2nd half numbers
Guest


Home Cafe: Football
Friendliness: %

Postby Erboes » Wed Feb 04, 2004 3:14 pm

Actually, Stabone, your questions make perfect sense and I really can't argue with you that much on them. Let me explain my thought process and maybe that will help. For every player I project who is not a rookie I ask, is he going to be better, the same, or worse next season?

With Boone, I decided that with his age, him having the second best year of his career in '03, and his general inconsistent career up to this point I find it unlikely that he'll get better in '04. I don't think you can argue with that, right? That leaves the same or worse. For the reasons sited above I decided he's more likely to do worse than the same. How much worse? I decided that since his norms were much closer to .280-27-100-8 (and this accepts the fact he's taken his game to a new level in Seatte), that I'd go closer to those numbers than his career highs to show to my subscribers that Boone is not a good risk for what you'd pay for him. In other words, there is little upside for where you'd pick him or what you'd pay for him.

With Giles, it's rather simple why I placed him ahead of Boone. Firstly, they were fairly close last season ($32 to $28), so if Boone I believe will slip it wouldnt' be hard to imagine him slipping below that $28 level. I do, however, have Giles improving. The reason for this goes beyond age because I don't have players such as Baldelli and Blalock improving next season. The two main reasons are: his second half numbers last season were fantastic (.349-13-32 in 238 AB's) and, more subjectively, my eyes tell me this kid is for real. Like I said, a short, powerful stroke like his brother. Usually, I don't put much stock in second half numbers because, after all, players do get hot, but when something else verifies those numbers and then I take the plunge.

You can disagree with me if you want, but that is my reasoning. I must also point out that if Boone and Giles repeat their numbers from '03 but Boone steals only 8 bases (which is about his norm), Giles would still be at $28 and Boone would drop to $28. I just checked it out using the formula. 8 SB's are what seperates those two, and I'm not too sure Boone can get 16 again.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby stabone76 » Wed Feb 04, 2004 5:16 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Its an interesting quesion, stabone. Considering that the first few rds of a draft are going to have very little added value, I rarely put much emphasis on those rds. I will generally draft the best available while avoiding guys I think are overpriced in rds 1-3. Good enough?


Well, you wont take a 2B early because they are overpriced, but you will take an OF or SP. You can get Wilson two rounds later than Vlad and possibly get the same numbers. You can take Zito two or three rounds later and possible get the same as Pedro, but yet, at SECOND base you think it is too even???

gotcha 8-o
stabone76
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 309
Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Wisconsin

Postby stabone76 » Wed Feb 04, 2004 5:25 pm

Erboes wrote:Actually, Stabone, your questions make perfect sense and I really can't argue with you that much on them. Let me explain my thought process and maybe that will help. For every player I project who is not a rookie I ask, is he going to be better, the same, or worse next season?

With Boone, I decided that with his age, him having the second best year of his career in '03, and his general inconsistent career up to this point I find it unlikely that he'll get better in '04. I don't think you can argue with that, right? That leaves the same or worse. For the reasons sited above I decided he's more likely to do worse than the same. How much worse? I decided that since his norms were much closer to .280-27-100-8 (and this accepts the fact he's taken his game to a new level in Seatte), that I'd go closer to those numbers than his career highs to show to my subscribers that Boone is not a good risk for what you'd pay for him. In other words, there is little upside for where you'd pick him or what you'd pay for him.

With Giles, it's rather simple why I placed him ahead of Boone. Firstly, they were fairly close last season ($32 to $28), so if Boone I believe will slip it wouldnt' be hard to imagine him slipping below that $28 level. I do, however, have Giles improving. The reason for this goes beyond age because I don't have players such as Baldelli and Blalock improving next season. The two main reasons are: his second half numbers last season were fantastic (.349-13-32 in 238 AB's) and, more subjectively, my eyes tell me this kid is for real. Like I said, a short, powerful stroke like his brother. Usually, I don't put much stock in second half numbers because, after all, players do get hot, but when something else verifies those numbers and then I take the plunge.

You can disagree with me if you want, but that is my reasoning. I must also point out that if Boone and Giles repeat their numbers from '03 but Boone steals only 8 bases (which is about his norm), Giles would still be at $28 and Boone would drop to $28. I just checked it out using the formula. 8 SB's are what seperates those two, and I'm not too sure Boone can get 16 again.


I see your mistake so i forgive you. You are going by dollar value. I personally believe that is nutz. Who cares about dollar value. im not gonna give six RBI's a nickle price and 6 SB's 75 Cents. I believe you have to go by overall numbers. Is one person more valuable than another just because one catagory is more valuable than another? No. I see your way of thinking but i feel it is flawed. I think the $$$ value is the dumbest way to rank players. Especially when guys are close enough (and by guys, i mean Major leaguers, not those particular two) in talent. If you have Pierre, crawford, et al. Do you really value Boone and Giles evenly. I dont think that six or 8 SB's is enough to compensate for all other catagories. If your team needs 8 SB's that badly, you shoulda got an improvement of more than That one player to help your team. Overall numbers puts Boone ahead of other 2B's more than it puts sheffield ahead of Wilson.
stabone76
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 309
Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Wisconsin

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Feb 04, 2004 5:25 pm

stabone76 wrote:Well, you wont take a 2B early because they are overpriced, but you will take an OF or SP. You can get Wilson two rounds later than Vlad and possibly get the same numbers. You can take Zito two or three rounds later and possible get the same as Pedro, but yet, at SECOND base you think it is too even???

gotcha 8-o


Did I say I wouldnt take a 2b early because they are overpriced? Nope. I said I wouldnt take Boone early because I think he is overpriced.

Again, there really isnt much value to be had in the first 2 rds, and Im not sure how your comparisons make a point. If you can take anyone who will produce like a 1st rd player in the 3rd or later, thats beautiful! Thats exactly the type of draft I am looking for.

gotit? 8-o
Image
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertPick 3 ChampionSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5694
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Erboes » Wed Feb 04, 2004 5:38 pm

Stabone, that is not a good argument. It is like you are saying that you hate the English language so you are now going to speak nothing but Swahili. That is great -- if you are in Swahili. You can value players with any method you prefer, but when everyone else in the world uses $ values it may be wise to speak the same language.

The more I mess around with these formulas the more I realize it is pretty damn accurate. Stolen bases, whether you agree with it or not, are very valuable and they do affect values either for the good or for the bad. Boone had 4 more stolen bases then Giles, which accounts for most of Boone's excess value over him. The homers and RBI's are not as valuable as you think either. How many guys hit 30 homers now a days? Many more than those who steal 30 bases. It's just the way it is. And average is over looked too often as well. You might only see the HR's and RBI's, average is just as important. If you don't like it, start speaking another language and try to get everyone else to speak it; otherwise, don't try to get smart because I prefer to speak in a language that everyone can understand.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact