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Top 10 2b,How do you see it?

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Postby Erboes » Wed Feb 04, 2004 8:10 am

I wasn't making fun of anyone, Savage. It's just that when someone puts down the final rankings from '03 for their '04 rankings they get a bunch of ;-D's and if someone writes something that is different from that they are called nuts. Gets my goat sometimes, that's all

My point is that I don't think last season was Boone's "norm". It was his career high in SB's and his second best season in homers and RBI's and his third best in average. What really put him ahead of Giles last season was his 16 SB's. If he had a more normal 8 SB's last season his and Giles seasons would have been about even. As good as Boone was last season, he was still only worth $32 to Giles $28. Am I crazy to think a 35 year old slips a bit this season especially in steals?

As for Giles he reminds me so much of his brother it's scary. I watched B. Giles struggle here in Cleveland with that same short, quick stroke and then finally was run out of town by the impatient Cleveland fans only to blossom in Pittsburgh. I do believe M. Giles will have similar numbers to his brother as early as next season, and B.G. is a consitent $32-$35 player. I'd take those numbers at 2B anyday. You guys will believe what you want and that is fine, but defending what to me is fairly logical drives me nuts sometimes.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Feb 04, 2004 9:38 am

Erboes wrote:Yikes! My list looks nothing like your fellas. Everyone seems to mirror last season's rankings. I think it will be a bit different next season.

Soriano $35
Giles 31
Kent 30
Boone 23
Vidro 23
Spivey 19
Durham 18
Jimenez 18
Alomar 18
Castillo 16

Nothing wrong with a different opinion. Jimenez could be a nice surprise. Durham too if he starts stealing again. The only one that I am shocked about is Alomar. He slid even further last year and I didn't see anything to make me optomistic about a comeback.
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Postby Erboes » Wed Feb 04, 2004 9:48 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Erboes wrote:Yikes! My list looks nothing like your fellas. Everyone seems to mirror last season's rankings. I think it will be a bit different next season.

Soriano $35
Giles 31
Kent 30
Boone 23
Vidro 23
Spivey 19
Durham 18
Jimenez 18
Alomar 18
Castillo 16

Nothing wrong with a different opinion. Jimenez could be a nice surprise. Durham too if he starts stealing again. The only one that I am shocked about is Alomar. He slid even further last year and I didn't see anything to make me optomistic about a comeback.


You know, Pogo, the Alomar ranking surprised me too. I have him down for a pedestrian .283 with 12 HR's and 15 SB's, and the formula spits out that that is worth $18 and a ninth place in the rankings. I guess that shows the value of SB's. I'll tell you this, though, he claims he's been out of shape the past few seasons and is now in the best shape of his life. It's probably just smoke, but there is a possibility that it is the truth and maybe he'll turn things around. That's enough for me to take him as a late round gamble.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Feb 04, 2004 10:09 am

Erboes wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
Erboes wrote:Yikes! My list looks nothing like your fellas. Everyone seems to mirror last season's rankings. I think it will be a bit different next season.

Soriano $35
Giles 31
Kent 30
Boone 23
Vidro 23
Spivey 19
Durham 18
Jimenez 18
Alomar 18
Castillo 16

Nothing wrong with a different opinion. Jimenez could be a nice surprise. Durham too if he starts stealing again. The only one that I am shocked about is Alomar. He slid even further last year and I didn't see anything to make me optomistic about a comeback.


You know, Pogo, the Alomar ranking surprised me too. I have him down for a pedestrian .283 with 12 HR's and 15 SB's, and the formula spits out that that is worth $18 and a ninth place in the rankings. I guess that shows the value of SB's. I'll tell you this, though, he claims he's been out of shape the past few seasons and is now in the best shape of his life. It's probably just smoke, but there is a possibility that it is the truth and maybe he'll turn things around. That's enough for me to take him as a late round gamble.
Maybe it is the SB but if that is true, wouldn't Castillo be higher? Either way I wouldn't feel very comfortable having Alomar as my starting 2B. I'd rather take a chance on Harriston or Kennedy.
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Postby Erboes » Wed Feb 04, 2004 10:32 am

I have Castillo's average really low for some reason, which drops him below Alomar. I got to look into my reasoning here because I just can't recall what it was. The thing I don't like about him though is that there's no telling how many bases he's going to steal. He really slowed down after the managerial change and his pace before that wasn't what it used to be. Still, I'll look into this a bit closer because he does seem to be too low. I must point out that Rotoguys projections will change before the start of the season, in many cases a lot. Come Spring things will get much more clearer and the projections more precise.

I'd take a chance on Hairston ahead of Alomar too, but remember the 2B situation is far from clear in Baltimore with Roberts still around. If he stays he'll be taking some AB's away from Hairston, which lowers his value. If I was sure he was going to play 150 games he'd be way ahead of Alomar as well.

I have to say again the entire point of projections is not for you to take a certain player high because his projections are high. It is for you to determine whether to pass on overvalued players in order to take an undervalued player later. Should you take Boone in the second or Giles in the fifth? Or how about Castillo in the fifth or Hairston in the 15th? It's all about spotting value and maximizing returns for every pick (or bid) you make.
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Postby Guest » Wed Feb 04, 2004 12:38 pm

I agree with Erboes on Giles. Giles was always considered a great hitter in the minors, so last year's numbers were expected. In fact, his minor league numbers suggested that he was a better hitter than his brother with more power (I believe he hit 35hrs one yr), so it is entirely possible that Giles'numbers will improve and he could very well hit 30HRs inthe near future. He is only 25, so in a keeper league I would defintiely rather wait a round or two and get him rather than take Boone int he second. I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms Kent this year.

I wouldn't put much stock in his poor numbers prior to last year. The year before last he struggled with injuries and the death of his child.

As for his loss of protection, true he lost Sheff which is big, but I don't think JD Drew will be hitting behind him. More likely the Jones boys move up the order and Drew hits fifth. I could also see, down the road, giles hitting 3rd with Drew hitting 2nd.
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Postby Erboes » Wed Feb 04, 2004 12:42 pm

Guest wrote:I agree with Erboes on Giles. Giles was always considered a great hitter in the minors, so last year's numbers were expected. In fact, his minor league numbers suggested that he was a better hitter than his brother with more power (I believe he hit 35hrs one yr), so it is entirely possible that Giles'numbers will improve and he could very well hit 30HRs inthe near future. He is only 25, so in a keeper league I would defintiely rather wait a round or two and get him rather than take Boone int he second. I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms Kent this year.

I wouldn't put much stock in his poor numbers prior to last year. The year before last he struggled with injuries and the death of his child.

As for his loss of protection, true he lost Sheff which is big, but I don't think JD Drew will be hitting behind him. More likely the Jones boys move up the order and Drew hits fifth. I could also see, down the road, giles hitting 3rd with Drew hitting 2nd.


Hey, guest, sign up would you? I need all the allies I can get. Well said by the way. I do believe the 3 hole will be in his future.
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Re: SPIVEY

Postby stabone76 » Wed Feb 04, 2004 2:13 pm

Purple Haze wrote:Junior Spivey :-P is a decent 2nd basemen, but he is in an awful place..

He is only warming a spot for the next "Big Thing" Rickie "Henderson" Weeks :-° will be playing 2nd for the Brew Crew by the Allstar break, and he will be the #2 (running close behind soriano) fantasy 2nd basemen for years to come..He will hit .310+ with 15 homers and 40 steals for years to come.. He will even win a batting title, or two before it's all said in done.
Not that it matters, but this guy hit .500 in college 8-o WOW

If your in a keeper league get him NOW!!! ;-D ;-D ;-D


PEACE and CHICKEN GREASE......


He wont be up by the break
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Postby stabone76 » Wed Feb 04, 2004 2:17 pm

Erboes wrote:Miller Park is good for hitters. As bad as they've been they've put up good offensive numbers.

I was looking at the Forecasters top 10 2b's going into last season and it looked like this:

Soriano
Kent
Castillo
Vidro
Durham
Walker
Boone
Alomar
Hairston
Giles

Notice Boone is seventh. Why was he seventh? Because he came off of a normal year. He has a great year and now I'm "nuts" because I have him fourth? Come on, guys, try to be ahead of the curve from time to time instead of reacting to these things.


yes you are nutz. You dont trust boone, but you do giles??? that is like saying you dont like Griffey because he is an injury risk, then drafting jeffrey hammonds
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Postby stabone76 » Wed Feb 04, 2004 2:20 pm

Erboes wrote:Miller Park is good for hitters. As bad as they've been they've put up good offensive numbers.

I was looking at the Forecasters top 10 2b's going into last season and it looked like this:

Soriano
Kent
Castillo
Vidro
Durham
Walker
Boone
Alomar
Hairston
Giles

Notice Boone is seventh. Why was he seventh? Because he came off of a normal year. He has a great year and now I'm "nuts" because I have him fourth? Come on, guys, try to be ahead of the curve from time to time instead of reacting to these things.


You talk yourself in circles and dont make any sense... you play on Boone's rank for last year... Where do you see your boy Giles? so you think its unrealistic for boone to go from 7 to 2 but it is okay for Giles to go from 10 to two, after having a worse season
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