I would rather have Verlander than either Oswalt or Webb, but I would still deal him. I think many people are thinking that he can be a Peavy or Johan. I don't see it. His stock is soaring deal him.
The Cow
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Ender wrote:I would trade him for Oswalt or Webb in a heartbeat, those are good examples of the types of trade you want.
Call me crazy but I would keep Verlander....Oswalt and Webb may be safer bets but I think Verlanders upside is greater and wouldn't be surprised in the least if he finished the season with better numbers across the board.
With all that said if I owned Oswalt or Webb I wouldn't pull the trigger for Verlander either. When I think players are very close together I usually feel safest keeping the guy I owned originally.
I look at it from the other angle. I think the odds of Verlander being significantly better than Webb/Oswalt are extremely small, if he's better its going to barely be better. The odds of Oswalt or Webb being significantly better than Verlander in the second half is still pretty decent, if he breaks down like he did last year and like his usage pattern suggests he will. Doing that trade minimizes your risk and is the exact meaning of sell high. If you trade Verlander for one of those you virtually cannot lose unless someone gets hurt.
Ender wrote:I look at it from the other angle. I think the odds of Verlander being significantly better than Webb/Oswalt are extremely small, if he's better its going to barely be better. The odds of Oswalt or Webb being significantly better than Verlander in the second half is still pretty decent, if he breaks down like he did last year and like his usage pattern suggests he will. Doing that trade minimizes your risk and is the exact meaning of sell high. If you trade Verlander for one of those you virtually cannot lose unless someone gets hurt.
I guess thats the heart of it right there. I completely disagree with your assesment of Verlander's talent. Is he as good as Oswalt and Webb? I say emphatically YES - he is absolutely as good as those 2 even in only his 2nd full season. Those of us who watch him play regularly cannot stress enough how unbelievable this guy is. His talent is as good as any pitcher in baseball - save Peavy/Santana, and his maturity belies his experience. The scary part is that he is only going to get better as he continues to get comfortable throwing his curve.
Ender wrote:I look at it from the other angle. I think the odds of Verlander being significantly better than Webb/Oswalt are extremely small, if he's better its going to barely be better. The odds of Oswalt or Webb being significantly better than Verlander in the second half is still pretty decent, if he breaks down like he did last year and like his usage pattern suggests he will. Doing that trade minimizes your risk and is the exact meaning of sell high. If you trade Verlander for one of those you virtually cannot lose unless someone gets hurt.
I guess thats the heart of it right there. I completely disagree with your assesment of Verlander's talent. Is he as good as Oswalt and Webb? I say emphatically YES - he is absolutely as good as those 2 even in only his 2nd full season. Those of us who watch him play regularly cannot stress enough how unbelievable this guy is. His talent is as good as any pitcher in baseball - save Peavy/Santana, and his maturity belies his experience. The scary part is that he is only going to get better as he continues to get comfortable throwing his curve.
Ender isn't fully convinced of Verlander's talent and also worries about workload issues. I disagree with him on the former but agree with the latter.
I believe he is a tremendous talent with all the necessary tools to be as good as Peavy/Santana in the near future provided he continues to develop. However, he does have a ton of mileage on his arm especially considering how badly he faded in the second half and also having pitched all the way to the World Series. We'll have to wait and see how he does in the second half.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Not sold on Verlander as in the same class as Peavy. Apart from workload issues, his xERA is a full run higher than his actual ERA, which means he's benefitted from some lucky hit and strand rates that are likely to normalize. If he had a 3.75 ERA right now, most ppl would be looking at him differently.
I am the Master. Don't question the Master. Just do what he says and be proud.
Secret Avatar wrote:Not sold on Verlander as in the same class as Peavy. Apart from workload issues, his xERA is a full run higher than his actual ERA, which means he's benefitted from some lucky hit and strand rates that are likely to normalize. If he had a 3.75 ERA right now, most ppl would be looking at him differently.
At the same time if he was pitching at Petco ppl would be looking at him the same way they do Peavy, IMO.
I was in the same camp as Ender at the begining of the season with regards to Verlander. I thought he was a little over-rated going in; however, he has really impressed me this year.
He has improved his K/9 by 2.01 over last year to 8.01. I'd like to see it a little bit higher to call him elite, but is definitely right on the cusp.
The only aspect of his game which keeps him out of Santana/Peavy territory is Ks. Like Oswalt and Webb he will K a good number of batters each year, but he isn't going to approach the ridiculous filthy K numbers which Santana/Peavy post year in and year out. In terms of fantasy, this is the main difference for me. So I'd throw him in with Oswalt, Webb (keep in mind both are having down years this year) and Haren as well, but not in Santana/Peavy/Liriano (when he returns) territory.
AngryMonkey wrote:The only aspect of his game which keeps him out of Santana/Peavy territory is Ks. Like Oswalt and Webb he will K a good number of batters each year, but he isn't going to approach the ridiculous filthy K numbers which Santana/Peavy post year in and year out. In terms of fantasy, this is the main difference for me. So I'd throw him in with Oswalt, Webb (keep in mind both are having down years this year) and Haren as well, but not in Santana/Peavy/Liriano (when he returns) territory.
you do realize liriano and verlander averaged pretty close to the same amout of K/per 9 in the minors right...
Verlander was also known for K's through his college career, a main reason why he suffered last year was the inability to throw his out pitch(knuckle-curveball) because of consistent blister problems so they had him get comfortable with the more conventional grip this year.
i think his K's will continue to climb then regress. it's more fo the control that was the problem in college when he was drafted but they tweaked his mech's and motion for better control.
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by The Cow » Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:42 pm 
