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Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

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Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

Postby SmartassBoiler » Wed Jun 20, 2007 2:23 pm

Where do you guys find these stats? Which stats are to be looked at in order to find pitchers and hitters playing over their head? Also, what are the league averages for those said stats?

I understand BABIP, but I've seen some other ones like Dips ERA that I don't understand.

Any help would be appreciated, thanks!
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Re: Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

Postby J35J » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:04 pm

HardballTimes has most of it....
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Re: Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

Postby talan37 » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:04 pm

Check out here:
http://www.fangraphs.com
and here:
http://www.firstinning.com

Dips is defensive independant pitching statistics.... there are many different equations like it, Xera, Fips, a few others...

They basically say what your Era would be if your Babip was normalized to a reasonable level, the core idea here is that the pitcher doesn't have much control beyond walks, strikeouts, and hrs.... so an "elite" pitcher has high k's, low walks, low hrs, and everything beyond that is basically defense or "luck",

So guys with very low babip tend to have higher Xera,Fips,Dips than there actual Era.
While guys with very high babip tend to have lower Xera,Fips,Dips than there actual Era.
Check out my blog at http://www.rotopulse.com for fantasy baseball analysis, injury reports, commissioner info and more. For laughs check out http://www.sportshysterics.com
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Re: Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

Postby talan37 » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:05 pm

Its a good tool, among others to evaluate pitchers, especially in the area of "hidden" talent... guys who are pitching well but getting poor results....and if they continue pitching well, there results pretty much have to improve.
Check out my blog at http://www.rotopulse.com for fantasy baseball analysis, injury reports, commissioner info and more. For laughs check out http://www.sportshysterics.com
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Re: Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

Postby dougbies » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:29 pm

wow, these are certainly some interesting statistics!
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Re: Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

Postby RynMan » Thu Jun 21, 2007 3:05 am

For hitters:
BB:KK
BABIP
Isolated power
Line drive, fly ball and ground ball rate
Contact rate

Pitchers:
BB:KK
BABIP
DIPS ERA
Flyball:Groundball
HR Rate
Strand rate

Hardball times if generally best for most of these. Baseball Prospectus is better for real life measures of performance and value. Protrade is emerging as a very good analytical body.
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Re: Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jun 21, 2007 9:56 am

Everyone else has covered a ton of it. I have a few articles if you follow the link in my sig, one from Voros McCracken and a couple I wrote myself, that cover some of the pitching related issues (Projecting Whip is an especially useful one as it takes the concepts from Dips and applies them to projecting whip instead of era).
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Re: Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

Postby acsguitar » Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:03 am

Coppermine is all about VORP PM him and he'll give you some incredible arguments on it
I'm too lazy to make a sig at the moment
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Re: Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:58 am

acsguitar wrote:Coppermine is all about VORP PM him and he'll give you some incredible arguments on it


VORP is great for real life value. Not so much fantasy.

Now I've seen some people cook up some pretty crazy fantasy VORP formulas. Those would definitely fall into the 'other crazy stats' category. You'll get people that swear by standard deviation's from the mean in each statistical category among the drafted pool, people that swear by standard gain points (SGP) and all other sorts of valuation methods. I think the fantasy valuation methods are even crazier than the baseball valuations. Even crazier than some of the wackier runs created formulas...and THOSE can get pretty crazy.
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Re: Sabermetrics/Other Crazy Stats

Postby Fritzenhammer » Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:45 am

I've recently started a fantasy baseball blog, and I use many of those numbers in my assessments here:

http://blog.fantasybaseballagent.com

Hardball Times is a great resource, and Hit Tracker also has some great data. I've also downloaded the Lahman database, and manually added some stuff I like to track like ground out vs air outs, etc. I have created some really crazy scatter graphs trying to relate BABIP to factors other than luck.

Yahoo provides easy access to some player splits as well, which comes in handy.

I think the important thing to remember when using these numbers is that there are data points missing in every assessment, and that there are other unmeasurables in play in nearly every scenario. This is why I like to compare BABIP and GO/AO to a players previous history moreso than to other players or even league averages.

Combine the available metrics with reasonable forecasts, available news, and firsthand observations, stir, and often reasonable conclusions can be drawn.

The fun is in determining whether your assessment of a certain player is on or off target, and adjusting for what you learn in the process.

Geez I am a baseball geek...

:)

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