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jon lester, when?

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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby teddy ballgame » Wed Jun 20, 2007 4:30 pm

I always saw him as a #3, and with our rotation the way it is now, maybe a #4. Serviceable, but way too many walks and too many pitches. He could have been a lot worse last year because it seemed like he always got lucky when he got into a jam, and escaped with minimal damage.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby J35J » Wed Jun 20, 2007 4:39 pm

Here is a review I did on him in Aug '06...

Jon Lester - LHP 1/7/84 6'2/190
89-92 mph cutter
93-94 mph 4 seam fastball
70-72 mph curveball
slider

Jon works mainly with a MLB avg cutter. Curve is also MLB avg. Slider is probaby his best pitch right now as it is avg to just above avg. Doesn't really throw any kind of change and rarely throws his 4 seamer. Keeps the ball down in the zone pretty well and throws "across his body" which can be deceptive. If he can throw that 4 seamer more often and mix in a change he can be a #2 but he will probably be no more than a #3 at best.


Another thread on him from last year
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby FalcoAtL » Wed Jun 20, 2007 5:24 pm

Noggy wrote:Those three are the kinds of guys that have #1 or #2 potential. I'm glad that you can now see that Lester isn't at that level.


I never said he had the same type of potential. I merely said he had frontline rotation stuff. Gallardo, Bailey and Hughes are superstar talents for their teams, def. Aces. I have not altered my opinion of Lester one bit.

Noggy wrote:But the thing is, there isn't such a great difference between their GB:FB. Lester sits in the low 90s and touches the mid 90s according to everything I've read. That's not much faster than Lilly at that age.


Alright, I saw that the first 2 times your wrote it. You're disregarding my point that they just pitch differently. I only used the ground ball and flyball comment to strengthen my point.

Noggy wrote:Benson was drafted out of college. He wasn't that young. The level of play in the ACC is usually considered somewhere between A and AA, no? If you want an example of someone who everyone loved in the minors (WAY more than Lester) and busted hard, I'd like to point you in the general direction of Edwin Jackson.


The transition to professional baseball still is enough time for scouts' opinions of players to change dramatically though. The fact that he was drafted #1 overall is fairly irrelevant to this discussion. Edwin Jackson was very highly touted and still has great stuff, but he lacks confidence. The Dodgers traded him to the Rays and that is probably the worst place for a young pitcher to develop poise. If you watch Jackson pitch you will notice that he has great stuff, he just gives up a hit or 2 and then falls apart. The scouts were correct in their opinions of him its just his development was thrown off by his move to TB. Lester does not have to worry about this development issue because he has poise and a great team behind him.

Noggy wrote:Scouting in baseball is a much bigger crap shoot then pretty much every other sport, so I don't see why you feel a prospect should only be judged on that.


You're right it is a crap shoot, but I never said it was the only thing you can use. I'm just saying that given the variability of each pitcher's development its much easier to rely on scouting reports. Stats are helpful to a certain extent, but the scouting reports take into account the player's makeup.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby Noggy » Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:09 pm

FalcoAtL wrote:I never said he had the same type of potential. I merely said he had frontline rotation stuff. Gallardo, Bailey and Hughes are superstar talents for their teams, def. Aces. I have not altered my opinion of Lester one bit.


Those guys aren't superstar talents, they aren't the best prospects in the past 10 years. They are "just" potential frontline starters. Lester is below their level. Therefore not a guy most would consider a potential frontline starter.


Alright, I saw that the first 2 times your wrote it. You're disregarding my point that they just pitch differently. I only used the ground ball and flyball comment to strengthen my point.


Lilly has a career 0.81 GB/FB ratio. Lester had a 1.05 ratio or so last year and a 0.77 ratio this year (i'm sure it's down because he hasn't been throwing all this pitchers, but still). How does that strengthen your point? Yeah, Lilly's a fly ball pitcher, but Lester isn't exactly a left handed Brandon Webb.

The transition to professional baseball still is enough time for scouts' opinions of players to change dramatically though.


You can look at any minor league player ranking from 2003 or earlier and I bet more than half of the top 20 guys aren't starters today. You're kidding yourself with your "if scouts love him, he must be great" mentality. The player has to dominate on the field at one point. Lester only showed he could in 2005. Every other year he hasn't been great.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby hot4tx » Thu Jun 21, 2007 3:06 pm

This post should be changed to
Jon Lester, why?
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby thedude » Thu Jun 21, 2007 3:37 pm

Noggy wrote:You can look at any minor league player ranking from 2003 or earlier and I bet more than half of the top 20 guys aren't starters today. You're kidding yourself with your "if scouts love him, he must be great" mentality. The player has to dominate on the field at one point. Lester only showed he could in 2005. Every other year he hasn't been great.



Well here is the top 21 from 2003:
baseball America wrote:1. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Rangers
2. Rocco Baldelli, of, Devil Rays
3. Jose Reyes, ss, Mets
4. Joe Mauer, c, Twins
5. Jesse Foppert, rhp, Giants
6. Jose Contreras, rhp, Yankees
7. Brandon Phillips, 2b/ss, Indians
8. Hideki Matsui, of, Yankees
9. Gavin Floyd, rhp, Phillies
10. Francisco Rodriguez, rhp, Angels
11. Scott Kazmir, lhp, Mets
12. Miguel Cabrera, 3b, Marlins
13. Casey Kotchman, 1b, Angels
14. Justin Morneau, 1b, Twins
15. Jason Stokes, 1b, Marlins
16. Victor Martinez, c, Indians
17. Michael Cuddyer, of, Twins
18. Adam Wainwright, rhp, Braves
19. Hanley Ramirez, ss, Red Sox
20. Jeremy Bonderman, rhp, Tigers
21. B.J. Upton, ss, Devil Rays


Stokes, Foppart, and Floyd can probably considered busts, but that is probably about it.

Compare that to this list from July of 2003.

Baseball Prospectus wrote:1.Joe Mauer
2.Rich Harden
3.Andy Marte
4.Clint Nageotte
5. Chin-Hui Tsao
6.J.J. Hardy
7.Zack Greinke
8.Laynce Nix
9.Scott Kazmir
10.Adam Wainwright


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=2067
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby FalcoAtL » Thu Jun 21, 2007 3:45 pm

Noggy wrote:Those guys aren't superstar talents, they aren't the best prospects in the past 10 years. They are "just" potential frontline starters.


I guess that's where our opinions differ then. I think frontline starter potential differs from ace potential.

Noggy wrote:Lilly has a career 0.81 GB/FB ratio. Lester had a 1.05 ratio or so last year and a 0.77 ratio this year (i'm sure it's down because he hasn't been throwing all this pitchers, but still). How does that strengthen your point? Yeah, Lilly's a fly ball pitcher, but Lester isn't exactly a left handed Brandon Webb.


Once again, you're disregarding my point. Lilly is clearly a finesse pitcher, while Lester is a power pitcher, who relies on his fastball. I never said Lester was a GB pitcher.

Noggy wrote:You can look at any minor league player ranking from 2003 or earlier and I bet more than half of the top 20 guys aren't starters today. You're kidding yourself with your "if scouts love him, he must be great" mentality. The player has to dominate on the field at one point. Lester only showed he could in 2005. Every other year he hasn't been great.


I never said that scouts' opinions are all that matter. I merely said that they are much more reliable since they take into account a player's makeup. You're saying that based solely on his stats he's not as good as people thought.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby FalcoAtL » Thu Jun 21, 2007 3:50 pm

thedude wrote:
Noggy wrote:You can look at any minor league player ranking from 2003 or earlier and I bet more than half of the top 20 guys aren't starters today. You're kidding yourself with your "if scouts love him, he must be great" mentality. The player has to dominate on the field at one point. Lester only showed he could in 2005. Every other year he hasn't been great.



Well here is the top 21 from 2003:
baseball America wrote:1. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Rangers
2. Rocco Baldelli, of, Devil Rays
3. Jose Reyes, ss, Mets
4. Joe Mauer, c, Twins
5. Jesse Foppert, rhp, Giants
6. Jose Contreras, rhp, Yankees
7. Brandon Phillips, 2b/ss, Indians
8. Hideki Matsui, of, Yankees
9. Gavin Floyd, rhp, Phillies
10. Francisco Rodriguez, rhp, Angels
11. Scott Kazmir, lhp, Mets
12. Miguel Cabrera, 3b, Marlins
13. Casey Kotchman, 1b, Angels
14. Justin Morneau, 1b, Twins
15. Jason Stokes, 1b, Marlins
16. Victor Martinez, c, Indians
17. Michael Cuddyer, of, Twins
18. Adam Wainwright, rhp, Braves
19. Hanley Ramirez, ss, Red Sox
20. Jeremy Bonderman, rhp, Tigers
21. B.J. Upton, ss, Devil Rays


Stokes, Foppart, and Floyd can probably considered busts, but that is probably about it.

Compare that to this list from July of 2003.

Baseball Prospectus wrote:1.Joe Mauer
2.Rich Harden
3.Andy Marte
4.Clint Nageotte
5. Chin-Hui Tsao
6.J.J. Hardy
7.Zack Greinke
8.Laynce Nix
9.Scott Kazmir
10.Adam Wainwright


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=2067


Thanks for backing me up on this!
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby RocketsDWM » Thu Jun 21, 2007 5:42 pm

Lester is a 4 or 3 at best. For fantasy purposes though, he is obviously good for wins and a respectable K count.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby thedude » Thu Jun 21, 2007 6:01 pm

FalcoAtL wrote:
Thanks for backing me up on this!



No problem. Even Baseball Prospectus has admitted that scouts play a role, if not be saying so, then by Hiring Goldstein to be thier prospect guy.

BTW i love BP's stuff, but BA's track record is pretty strong.
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