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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby Noggy » Wed Jun 20, 2007 1:32 pm

I quoted you but mentioned the cancer because I changed my mind about exactly what I was going to say as began typing that post. Geez, it's not a big deal.

If scouts and experts should be the basis for this agruement, then why did you bring up K:BB ratio in the first place? Your first two posts in this topic were mostly about his stats and now you say they don't matter after their compared to someone like Ted Lilly.

I compare Lester to Lilly because I watched Lilly a lot when he was with the Yankees and watching Lester last year, it reminded me of Lilly in 2001. I know Lilly was older but I'm not trying to say Lester's upside is Ted Lilly, but I think he'll be closer to Lilly than being a frontline starter.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby Snakes Gould » Wed Jun 20, 2007 1:51 pm

if you're referring to BA's projected lineups and rotations by 2010, thats a joke. i checked out a few teams and they obviously didnt put much thought into it. i posted my opinion because i honestly really didnt hear much about lester before his mlb debut. he was touted as a GREAT prospect, but a solid lefty starter which is always helpful. i realize he was in fact pitching with cancer. he started off pitching pretty much then faded toward the end of last season. i posted my opinion with the hopes that i was indeed missing something and someone could correct me, but im beginning to feel i was right.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby FalcoAtL » Wed Jun 20, 2007 1:56 pm

Snakes Gould wrote:if you're referring to BA's projected lineups and rotations by 2010, thats a joke. i checked out a few teams and they obviously didnt put much thought into it. i posted my opinion because i honestly really didnt hear much about lester before his mlb debut. he was touted as a GREAT prospect, but a solid lefty starter which is always helpful. i realize he was in fact pitching with cancer. he started off pitching pretty much then faded toward the end of last season. i posted my opinion with the hopes that i was indeed missing something and someone could correct me, but im beginning to feel i was right.


I'm referring to the ones in the '07 Handbook actually. The ones that can be found on the link posted are different. Dice-K isn't even on there.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby FalcoAtL » Wed Jun 20, 2007 2:07 pm

Noggy wrote:I quoted you but mentioned the cancer because I changed my mind about exactly what I was going to say as began typing that post. Geez, it's not a big deal.

If scouts and experts should be the basis for this agruement, then why did you bring up K:BB ratio in the first place? Your first two posts in this topic were mostly about his stats and now you say they don't matter after their compared to someone like Ted Lilly.

I compare Lester to Lilly because I watched Lilly a lot when he was with the Yankees and watching Lester last year, it reminded me of Lilly in 2001. I know Lilly was older but I'm not trying to say Lester's upside is Ted Lilly, but I think he'll be closer to Lilly than being a frontline starter.


Sorry, didn't mean to make a big deal out of it. I just was irritated that you made it seem like you were replying to my post. I personally think the cancer is too much of an unknown to pinpoint the exact effects on stamina and strength.

I brought up the stats to show that he really was pretty good in the minors. In no way did say they are the tell all of a pitcher's potential. They're useful, but are far from the final word. I think that scouting reports from scouts are much more reliable.

I wasn't using the stats to refute the Lilly comparison. I personally just don't see the similarities in their pitching style aside from the fact that they're both left handed pitchers. Lester throws in the low to mid 90's while Lilly only gets to about the high 80's. Lester is really more of a power pitcher, while Lilly is more finesse. Lester relies on his cutter for SO's and GB's, while Lilly looks to induce FB's.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby Noggy » Wed Jun 20, 2007 2:38 pm

FalcoAtL wrote:I brought up the stats to show that he really was pretty good in the minors. In no way did say they are the tell all of a pitcher's potential. They're useful, but are far from the final word.


You've been arguing that he's a frontline starter, so why even bring up the stats the show that he's been "pretty good"? Like I said, Lilly has a similiar ratio in the majors so even if Lester maintains his ratio in the majors it doesn't do anything for the point you're trying to make.



I think that scouting reports from scouts are much more reliable.


Then why did you didn't you say that in the first place instead of jumping into this topic throwing around his strike out and walk numbers? You're right that stats don't always translate to the majors, but you make it sound like scouts are always right. Kris Benson was drafted 1st overall you know.


I wasn't using the stats to refute the Lilly comparison. I personally just don't see the similarities in their pitching style aside from the fact that they're both left handed pitchers. Lester throws in the low to mid 90's while Lilly only gets to about the high 80's. Lester is really more of a power pitcher, while Lilly is more finesse. Lester relies on his cutter for SO's and GB's, while Lilly looks to induce FB's.


I seem to remember Lilly throwing low 90s when he first broke in. And there's not such a huge difference between their GB/FB ratios that would make them incomparable. Lilly also has a quite healthy career 7.68 K/9 and I think Lester will have a tough time matching that.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby FalcoAtL » Wed Jun 20, 2007 2:58 pm

Noggy wrote:You've been arguing that he's a frontline starter, so why even bring up the stats the show that he's been "pretty good"?


You made it seem like his stats weren't good at all. I wasn't using them as a reason to believe he has ace potential, I was merely showing why I disagreed with the opinion.

Noggy wrote:Like I said, Lilly has a similiar ratio in the majors so even if Lester maintains his ratio in the majors it doesn't do anything for the point you're trying to make.


They're different pitchers, with different types of games. I never used stats to refute the comparison. I just was conveying the reason why I disagree that his stats were mediocre.

Noggy wrote:Then why did you didn't you say that in the first place instead of jumping into this topic throwing around his strike out and walk numbers? You're right that stats don't always translate to the majors, but you make it sound like scouts are always right. Kris Benson was drafted 1st overall you know.


When you're first discussing the quality of a pitcher you're almost always going to look at his stats first. Our opinions differ on whether his stats are exceptional, so I brought up the scouting reports, which really have been the basis of my opinions all along.

Noggy wrote:I seem to remember Lilly throwing low 90s when he first broke in. And there's not such a huge difference between their GB/FB ratios that would make them incomparable. Lilly also has a quite healthy career 7.68 K/9 and I think Lester will have a tough time matching that.


Agreed, but Lilly has always been more of a finesse pitcher. Yeah, he K's a fair amount, but Lester is undoubtedly a power pitcher who relies more on his fastball.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby Noggy » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:34 pm

FalcoAtL wrote:You made it seem like his stats weren't good at all. I wasn't using them as a reason to believe he has ace potential, I was merely showing why I disagreed with the opinion.


I've already said his 2005 season in AA was great, but when else has he shown "ace potential"


2003- SALLY League - 3.65 ERA and 1.38 WHIP - Nothing special.
2004 - Florida State League - 4.28 ERA and 1.32 WHIP - Bad when you consider how much of a pitcher's league the FSL is.
2006 - AAA - 2.70 ERA and 1.46 WHIP - Way too many base runners (although we don't know when exactly he began feeling the effects of the cancer)

And don't say it's because Lester was young. Those numbers are blown away by guys like Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes and Yovani Gallardo at the same age. I NEVER said his minor league numbers were bad, just not what a frontline starter would probably do.

They're different pitchers, with different types of games.


It's not like I'm comparing Jamie Moyer to Randy Johnson. Their similar enough (especially when Lilly was younger) to compare. You said at first they're different because Lester gets more strikeouts and ground balls, which really isn't the case. Just because Lester throws 2-3 MPH harder than Lilly did when he was young doesn't mean they are all that much different.

so I brought up the scouting reports, which really have been the basis of my opinions all along.


You're ignoring his good but not great stats and treating scouting reports like they are the end all. I hate to break it to you, but scouts aren't always right. Like I said, Kris Benson was drafted 1st overall, I bet the scouts loved him. How'd that work out?
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby FalcoAtL » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:55 pm

First of all this is a discussion, not an argument. No need to get angry. :D

Noggy wrote:And don't say it's because Lester was young. Those numbers are blown away by guys like Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes and Yovani Gallardo at the same age. I NEVER said his minor league numbers were bad, just not what a frontline starter would probably do.


I never said he had superstar potential like those 3 do. I just think he has No. 1 to No. 2 ability.

Noggy wrote:It's not like I'm comparing Jamie Moyer to Randy Johnson. Their similar enough (especially when Lilly was younger) to compare. You said at first they're different because Lester gets more strikeouts and ground balls, which really isn't the case. Just because Lester throws 2-3 MPH harder than Lilly did when he was young doesn't mean they are all that much different.


Actually I said that they differ because Lilly is a finesse pitcher and Lester is a power pitcher. I brought up the ground balls and flyballs to emphasize the point. Its tough to disagree with that because Lilly clearly has always been that type of pitcher. Lester undoubtedly relies on his fastball as his out pitch.

Noggy wrote:You're ignoring his good but not great stats and treating scouting reports like they are the end all. I hate to break it to you, but scouts aren't always right.


No, I don't think they're always right. I just think that given the fact that some young pitchers develop differently you have to rely more on what the scouts and experts see in them. A lot of times a pitcher can have great stuff, but lack poise and the apparent desire. It's just my opinion, so don't take it as though I'm telling you I'm right.

Noggy wrote:Like I said, Kris Benson was drafted 1st overall, I bet the scouts loved him. How'd that work out?


Well that's not exactly the same thing is it? Benson had yet to play professional baseball and was still very young. A lot can happen during the transition to professional baseball. Lester has come all the way through the Sox system and scouts constantly rave about his poise. I'm not saying it's a given that he's a frontline starter. I'm merely saying that he has yet to give us a reason to think he won't produce the way people thought.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby tgalv » Wed Jun 20, 2007 4:08 pm

that's weird that ted lilly got brought up because that's exactly who i thought he might be one day when i watched him pitch last year. i don't think he is gonna be a top line starter but i hope i'm wrong.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby Noggy » Wed Jun 20, 2007 4:27 pm

I'm not angry. I don't know exactly what I said that made it seem that way but I can assure you I'm not.


I never said he had superstar potential like those 3 do. I just think he has No. 1 to No. 2 ability.


Those three are the kinds of guys that have #1 or #2 potential. I'm glad that you can now see that Lester isn't at that level.

Actually I said that they differ because Lilly is a finesse pitcher and Lester is a power pitcher. I brought up the ground balls and flyballs to emphasize the point. Its tough to disagree with that because Lilly clearly has always been that type of pitcher. Lester undoubtedly relies on his fastball as his out pitch.


But the thing is, there isn't such a great difference between their GB:FB. Lester sits in the low 90s and touches the mid 90s according to everything I've read. That's not much faster than Lilly at that age.

Well that's not exactly the same thing is it? Benson had yet to play professional baseball and was still very young.


Benson was drafted out of college. He wasn't that young. The level of play in the ACC is usually considered somewhere between A and AA, no? If you want an example of someone who everyone loved in the minors (WAY more than Lester) and busted hard, I'd like to point you in the general direction of Edwin Jackson. Scouting in baseball is a much bigger crap shoot then pretty much every other sport, so I don't see why you feel a prospect should only be judged on that.





ANYWAY, to bring this back to the main point of this topic, I wouldn't count on Lester being called up soon. His line today: 5IP, 5H, 3ER, 4BB, 3K, 1HR. Those walks are not a good sign, especially since he was pulled in the 4th inning two starts ago because he was having trouble with location. The Red Sox should play this carefully and wait until he gets into another groove before calling him up.
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