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jon lester, when?

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jon lester, when?

Postby buckwild13 » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:37 am

when is he going to be called back up. i heard schilling is now on the DL, and also taveraz is still the 5th starter, im wondering when he will be called up. and how effective he will be?
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby nsulham » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:43 am

Depending on the result of Schill's MRI it's possible he may be up to start this weekend.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby Snakes Gould » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:59 am

ok i know he overcame cancer and its a great story. im really happy for him. BUT, when did lester become fantasy relavent? i had to make sure i didnt miss anything so i went back at looked at his stats and his high 4 era with a 1.65 WHIP was nothing pretty whatsoever. he had 1 10 k game, but for the most part, doesnt strike many hitters out and has fairly high walk totals. now i know he was a rookie and all rookies struggle, but i dont see him pitching that effectively this season for fantasy teams...


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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby theclefe » Wed Jun 20, 2007 5:16 am

Snakes Gould wrote:ok i know he overcame cancer and its a great story. im really happy for him. BUT, when did lester become fantasy relavent? i had to make sure i didnt miss anything so i went back at looked at his stats and his high 4 era with a 1.65 WHIP was nothing pretty whatsoever. he had 1 10 k game, but for the most part, doesnt strike many hitters out and has fairly high walk totals. now i know he was a rookie and all rookies struggle, but i dont see him pitching that effectively this season for fantasy teams...


thoughts?


I agree. Lester is not going to be the next Guthrie here. He has great real world value being a solid lefty, but projects to be nothing more than a 4-5 fantasy starter. I would be hesitant to jump on him if he does get called up, if it means dropping another proven, mediocre pitcher.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby zEli173 » Wed Jun 20, 2007 8:04 am

4 era with a 1.65 WHIP : Not bad for a guy pitching with cancer ;)

Lester should be taken seriously. He has an outstanding minor league track record, he has especially impressive minor league numbers this year, there have already been glimpses that he can be a very good major league pitcher, and he'll be pitching for the best team in baseball.

It can't be overlooked that he was sick last year, that almost certainly effected him on the mound. He has said himself that he's throwing better this year and that his stuff wasn't quite right last year. Indeed his fastball has been consistently in the mid-90's this year rather than the low-90's where is was sitting last year. Before he came down with a forearm cramp he was accumulating a lot of K's this spring. Since then his K numbers have been down but he hasn't been throwing his cutter -- his strikeout pitch -- in order to relieve some stress on his arm and to work on his other pitches. He will probably be relying on that pitch again once he is recalled.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby FalcoAtL » Wed Jun 20, 2007 10:46 am

theclefe wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:ok i know he overcame cancer and its a great story. im really happy for him. BUT, when did lester become fantasy relavent? i had to make sure i didnt miss anything so i went back at looked at his stats and his high 4 era with a 1.65 WHIP was nothing pretty whatsoever. he had 1 10 k game, but for the most part, doesnt strike many hitters out and has fairly high walk totals. now i know he was a rookie and all rookies struggle, but i dont see him pitching that effectively this season for fantasy teams...


thoughts?


I agree. Lester is not going to be the next Guthrie here. He has great real world value being a solid lefty, but projects to be nothing more than a 4-5 fantasy starter. I would be hesitant to jump on him if he does get called up, if it means dropping another proven, mediocre pitcher.


Very interesting take on Lester. You're basically contradicting all his stats from the minor league stats. He had a K/9 ratio over 8 and good K/BB ratios the last 3 years. BA, although not taking fantasy into consideration, placed him 3rd in the 2010 rotation behind Beckett and Dice-K. Both of those guys are undoubtedly considered top pitchers of the future and the player behind him, Buchholz, is projected as a No. 1 to No. 2 by most people. I just don't see how you can call him mediocre based on one year of adjusting to the league, while disregarding his other stats.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby Noggy » Wed Jun 20, 2007 11:40 am

FalcoAtL wrote:I just don't see how you can call him mediocre based on one year of adjusting to the league, while disregarding his other stats.


Lets not pretend that he dominated at every level. Only his 2005 numbers in AA really jump out at you. He has always allowed a lot of walks, so you can't really attribute that to the cancer.

I am very curious to see how much of his 2006 numbers were because he was sick, were because he was adjusting to the league or maybe he's not that good. I know he was a highly regarded prospect, but he reminded me a lot of Ted Lilly in his first year with the Yankees. Granted I have no idea how much better he's actually been throwing this year (I'm aware of his numbers, but I haven't actually seen him pitch), but I have a hard time not comparing him to Lilly.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby FalcoAtL » Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:09 pm

Noggy wrote:
FalcoAtL wrote:I just don't see how you can call him mediocre based on one year of adjusting to the league, while disregarding his other stats.


Lets not pretend that he dominated at every level. Only his 2005 numbers in AA really jump out at you. He has always allowed a lot of walks, so you can't really attribute that to the cancer.

I am very curious to see how much of his 2006 numbers were because he was sick, were because he was adjusting to the league or maybe he's not that good. I know he was a highly regarded prospect, but he reminded me a lot of Ted Lilly in his first year with the Yankees. Granted I have no idea how much better he's actually been throwing this year (I'm aware of his numbers, but I haven't actually seen him pitch), but I have a hard time not comparing him to Lilly.


I didn't suggest anything had to do with him having cancer. I never said he dominated every level either. I merely said his stats and reputation suggest he has frontline rotation potential. He had K/9 ratios over 9 in both '05 and '04 and one over 8 in '06 in only 11 starts. Yeah he gave up a decent amount of walks each year, but he still had a respectable K/BB ratio each year.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby Noggy » Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:55 pm

His cancer effecting his performance has been brought up in this topic, that's why I mentioned it.

But I don't understand how you can say his stats suggest he's a frontline starter. Shouldn't a frontline start dominate the minors? I know of his reputation, I believe he was a higher regarded prospect than Papelbon. Everyone loves hard throwing lefties but it doesn't mean it will translate to being a #1 or #2 in a major league rotation.

You bring up K:BB ratios, but the ratio usually gets worse jumping from the minors to the majors. And even if he maintains it, Lester's minor league ratio is about the same as Ted Lilly's major league ratio. Like I said before, Lester reminds me a lot of a young Ted Lilly and we all know Lilly's a league average pitcher.
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Re: jon lester, when?

Postby FalcoAtL » Wed Jun 20, 2007 1:07 pm

Noggy wrote:His cancer effecting his performance has been brought up in this topic, that's why I mentioned it.

But I don't understand how you can say his stats suggest he's a frontline starter. Shouldn't a frontline start dominate the minors? I know of his reputation, I believe he was a higher regarded prospect than Papelbon. Everyone loves hard throwing lefties but it doesn't mean it will translate to being a #1 or #2 in a major league rotation.

You bring up K:BB ratios, but the ratio usually gets worse jumping from the minors to the majors. And even if he maintains it, Lester's minor league ratio is about the same as Ted Lilly's major league ratio. Like I said before, Lester reminds me a lot of a young Ted Lilly and we all know Lilly's a league average pitcher.


Why did you quote me and then start talking about the effects of the cancer then? It makes no sense.

I don't think that's the best way to judge a pitcher's potential at all. Many have been just decent to exceptional and then develped into aces. The scouts and experts that report on him should be the basis IMO.

I really don't uderstand the Lilly comparison because Lester was 22 when he got his chance to start full time, while Lilly was already 25.
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